Australian Politics Forum - Largest jobs growth for 23 years

Dnarever

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Re: Largest jobs growth for 23 years - Onya Abbott
Reply #75 - Sep 13^th, 2014 at 9:43am

Bobby. wrote on Sep 13^th, 2014 at 7:11am:

Dnarever wrote on Sep 13^th, 2014 at 6:50am:

Bobby. wrote on Sep 12^th, 2014 at 11:42am:

I think that if you counted the true number of unemployed & added it to
those on the DSP who can't work - you'd get a figure of about

2 million people unemployed.

From a population of 23 Million we have about 11 Million employed with 5 Million under 15 and 4.8 Million over 65.

Which leaves about 4 Million working aged people not working if you count it that way.

Not saying this means anything.

23 -11 - 5 - 4.8 = 2.2 million unemployed.

but then you have to subtract those still at school & university or TAFE.

Whoops - 2 + 2 = 3.

have to subtract those still at school & university or TAFE

I figure a lot of them work as well and it also balances against those still working over 65.

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Grappler Deep State Feller Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 85379 Always was always will be HOME Gender:	Re: Largest jobs growth for 23 years - Onya Abbott Reply #76 - Sep 13^th, 2014 at 10:33am The point is - as we all know - the figures are rubbery as hell and designed to serve the government in place. Put simply - it is all lies.
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Bobby. Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 106958 Melbourne Gender:	Re: Largest jobs growth for 23 years - Onya Abbott Reply #77 - Sep 13^th, 2014 at 10:40am Grappler Deep State Feller wrote on Sep 13^th, 2014 at 10:33am: The point is - as we all know - the figures are rubbery as hell and designed to serve the government in place. Put simply - it is all lies. Politicians don't lie:
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John Smith

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Re: Largest jobs growth for 23 years - Onya Abbott
Reply #78 - Sep 13^th, 2014 at 2:59pm

longweekend58 wrote on Sep 13^th, 2014 at 9:17am:

Bam wrote on Sep 12^th, 2014 at 11:28pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Sep 11^th, 2014 at 1:22pm:

So when unemployment goes up it is a tragegy and Abbotts fault but when it comes down it is an accident and an aberration???

just another Abbott govt success, turning te unemployment rate around after a disastrous 6 years of labor.

It's rubbish posts like this which prove that you know nothing about statistics. It's simply a different ABS sample producing different figures. The best guess is that the previous month's figures (showing a jump) were an aberration.

Unemployment hasn't come down, not by that amount. There's too much weakness in the economy to indicate that unemployment is coming down, especially the soft wages growth.

which is PRECISELY what I have been saying. I am enjoying watching you clowns having to backpedal from last months hysteria. I studied university statistics and have been folloing polling for decades. from time to time you see this sort of thing happening. a few years ago Gillards poll numbers jumped 5% for no reason at all and the laborites shouted with glee only to see it all disappear the next month - also for no good reason.

good attempt at backpeddling longie, but not good enough .. i noticed you cut out half or Bams quote Why is that? like has been said, there are many reasons for the figures .....

at this stage you simply haven't got enough information to determine which figure is wrong or even that it is wrong, so stop making sh1t up

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St George of the Garden Gold Member Offline http://tinyurl.com/n 3o8m2x Posts: 9809 Gender:	Re: Largest jobs growth for 23 years - Onya Abbott Reply #79 - Sep 13^th, 2014 at 3:46pm Electoral poll—about 1000 sample, sometimes about 1800. Jobs survey—over 40,000 sample. Rather different margins of error! And no poll has Abbott in Front = #OneTermTony and he will be lucky not to be bumped off before the next election
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longweekend58

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Re: Largest jobs growth for 23 years - Onya Abbott
Reply #80 - Sep 13^th, 2014 at 4:50pm

what you clowns fail to understand is that the unemployment rate is not even claiming to be a totally accurate figure but a trend point. is the true state of unemployment 6.1% Don't know, but most importantly, it doesn't matter either. unemployment figures are only of any value as part of a data series that allows you to define TRENDS. over the past 3 years unemployment has been trending upwards at a consistent rate. what we know from that is simply that: that it is increasing at a defined rate. we can calculate the trend but not the absolute numbers.

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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Dnarever

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Re: Largest jobs growth for 23 years - Onya Abbott
Reply #81 - Sep 13^th, 2014 at 5:10pm

longweekend58 wrote on Sep 13^th, 2014 at 4:50pm:

what you clowns fail to understand is that the unemployment rate is not even claiming to be a totally accurate figure but a trend point. is the true state of unemployment 6.1% Don't know, but most importantly, it doesn't matter either. unemployment figures are only of any value as part of a data series that allows you to define TRENDS. over the past 3 years unemployment has been trending upwards at a consistent rate. what we know from that is simply that: that it is increasing at a defined rate. we can calculate the trend but not the absolute numbers.

over the past 3 years unemployment has been trending upwards at a consistent rate.

Wrong - it was fairly constant during most of 2012. Low of 4.9% in April but the year started at 5.2% - High of 5.4% Sept when the government changed in Sept 2013 the rate was at 5.6%

That is a variation in 2012 of 0.3% but it was 5.2% the previous September or 0.2% variation and the 12 months prior to the 2013 election from 5.4% to 5.6% - 0.2%

This Liberal term 1st year it has gone between 5.6% and 6.4% - 0.8%

Sep 2011/12       0.2%
Sep 2012 /13    0.2%
Sep 2013/14       0.8%

The trend has not been consistent - it has increased by 400% this year.

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longweekend58

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Re: Largest jobs growth for 23 years - Onya Abbott
Reply #82 - Sep 13^th, 2014 at 5:31pm

Dnarever wrote on Sep 13^th, 2014 at 5:10pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Sep 13^th, 2014 at 4:50pm:

what you clowns fail to understand is that the unemployment rate is not even claiming to be a totally accurate figure but a trend point. is the true state of unemployment 6.1% Don't know, but most importantly, it doesn't matter either. unemployment figures are only of any value as part of a data series that allows you to define TRENDS. over the past 3 years unemployment has been trending upwards at a consistent rate. what we know from that is simply that: that it is increasing at a defined rate. we can calculate the trend but not the absolute numbers.

over the past 3 years unemployment has been trending upwards at a consistent rate.

Wrong - it was fairly constant during most of 2012. Low of 4.9% in April but the year started at 5.2% - High of 5.4% Sept when the government changed in Sept 2013 the rate was at 5.6%

That is a variation in 2012 of 0.3% but it was 5.2% the previous September or 0.2% variation and the 12 months prior to the 2013 election from 5.4% to 5.6% - 0.2%

This Liberal term 1st year it has gone between 5.6% and 6.4% - 0.8%

Sep 2011/12       0.2%
Sep 2012 /13    0.2%
Sep 2013/14       0.8%

The trend has not been consistent - it has increased by 400% this year.

nope. youa re wrong as the graph shows.

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unemployment_001.jpg (34 KB | 54 )

AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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Bobby. Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 106958 Melbourne Gender:	Re: Largest jobs growth for 23 years - Onya Abbott Reply #83 - Sep 13^th, 2014 at 5:33pm Wow - that graph tells it all - even with all the fake figures used to hide the unemployed it's rising fast under Abbott - the one term PM.
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St George of the Garden

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Re: Largest jobs growth for 23 years - Onya Abbott
Reply #84 - Sep 13^th, 2014 at 5:34pm

Yup, the trend has been accelerating through the term of the shambles to date.

Not surprising—cut govt spending drastically at this time and increased unemployment is the result. Now they want to bring in foreign workers, including those who cannot speak or read English and pay them under award. Who thinks this is going to decrease unemployment?

We will be lucky for unemployment not to have a 7 in front of it by the end of the year.

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adelcrow Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 20133 everywhere Gender:	Re: Largest jobs growth for 23 years - Onya Abbott Reply #85 - Sep 13^th, 2014 at 5:40pm Abbott has cut funding the the ABS to such a point that now their stats are utterly worthless
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longweekend58

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Re: Largest jobs growth for 23 years - Onya Abbott
Reply #86 - Sep 13^th, 2014 at 5:46pm

St George of the Garden wrote on Sep 13^th, 2014 at 5:34pm:

Yup, the trend has been accelerating through the term of the shambles to date.

Not surprising—cut govt spending drastically at this time and increased unemployment is the result. Now they want to bring in foreign workers, including those who cannot speak or read English and pay them under award. Who thinks this is going to decrease unemployment?

We will be lucky for unemployment not to have a 7 in front of it by the end of the year.

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labor-view.jpg (207 KB | 65 )

AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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Sprintcyclist Gold Member Offline OzPolitic Posts: 40773 Gender:	Re: Largest jobs growth for 23 years - Onya Abbott Reply #87 - Sep 13^th, 2014 at 5:51pm with iron ore and coal prices dropping we have real problems.
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St George of the Garden Gold Member Offline http://tinyurl.com/n 3o8m2x Posts: 9809 Gender:	Re: Largest jobs growth for 23 years - Onya Abbott Reply #88 - Sep 13^th, 2014 at 6:19pm Those problems are exacerbated by monkey and Hokey, Sprint. If they decide to do away with the RET we will have 7% unemployment this month!
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John Smith

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Re: Largest jobs growth for 23 years - Onya Abbott
Reply #89 - Sep 13^th, 2014 at 6:22pm

longweekend58 wrote on Sep 13^th, 2014 at 5:46pm:

St George of the Garden wrote on Sep 13^th, 2014 at 5:34pm:

Yup, the trend has been accelerating through the term of the shambles to date.

Not surprising—cut govt spending drastically at this time and increased unemployment is the result. Now they want to bring in foreign workers, including those who cannot speak or read English and pay them under award. Who thinks this is going to decrease unemployment?

We will be lucky for unemployment not to have a 7 in front of it by the end of the year.

except that that black line is what A LIBERAL CHEERLEADER SEE'S , NOT A STATISTICIAN

and the real trend is somehwere in the middle of that line longie ....

looks like it's going up to me ... why do you pretend its going down?

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Question: Are Newstart stats more accurate than the "poll method" ?
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