Australian Politics Forum - Surge in QLD LNP support

polite_gandalf Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 20027 Canberra Gender:	Re: Surge in QLD LNP support Reply #15 - Jan 10^th, 2015 at 4:23pm lol - just noticed your table is from the 2012 state election. Evidence fail longy
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longweekend58

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Re: Surge in QLD LNP support
Reply #16 - Jan 10^th, 2015 at 4:28pm

polite_gandalf wrote on Jan 10^th, 2015 at 4:22pm:

I don't know where the hell you got that table from longy, but you are wrong.

Here's what the AEC actually said

http://results.aec.gov.au/17496/Website/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-17496-QLD.ht...

- Greens 6.22% first preferences in QLD

Greens have gone up uniformly across the nation since the 2013 election. I'm looking forward to your 4% prediction being ridiculed for the joke that it is next year.

the difference is that I am quoting the 2012 election and you are quoting the 2013 federal election. But the figures remain true that the green vote has dropped. only the actual election results in a few weeks can confirm which of us is right.

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polite_gandalf

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Re: Surge in QLD LNP support
Reply #17 - Jan 10^th, 2015 at 4:47pm

umm longy, the federal green vote has increased - everywhere.

The state green vote has, as far as I know, increased - everywhere.

Now you start a thread giving the latest QLD state poll - showing the greens (wait for it...) increasing their vote - from 7.5 in 2012 to 8% now - you did notice that greens are now on 8% didn't you longy?

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longweekend58 Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 45675 Gender:	Re: Surge in QLD LNP support Reply #18 - Jan 10^th, 2015 at 4:52pm polite_gandalf wrote on Jan 10^th, 2015 at 4:23pm: lol - just noticed your table is from the 2012 state election. Evidence fail longy imagine using state results in a discussion about state elections?? OF COURSE IS USED THW 2012 RESULTS
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longweekend58

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Re: Surge in QLD LNP support
Reply #19 - Jan 10^th, 2015 at 4:53pm

polite_gandalf wrote on Jan 10^th, 2015 at 4:47pm:

umm longy, the federal green vote has increased - everywhere.

The state green vote has, as far as I know, increased - everywhere.

Now you start a thread giving the latest QLD state poll - showing the greens (wait for it...) increasing their vote - from 7.5 in 2012 to 8% now - you did notice that greens are now on 8% didn't you longy?

Newspoll has greens at 7%

how about we wait until the actual election result hmmm??? and you really DO need to remember the tendency for Greens to poll around 2% higher than they end up getting in elections. It is a well-known and repeated phenomena which you will no doubt refute.

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polite_gandalf

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Re: Surge in QLD LNP support
Reply #20 - Jan 10^th, 2015 at 5:28pm

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 10^th, 2015 at 4:53pm:

polite_gandalf wrote on Jan 10^th, 2015 at 4:47pm:

umm longy, the federal green vote has increased - everywhere.

The state green vote has, as far as I know, increased - everywhere.

Now you start a thread giving the latest QLD state poll - showing the greens (wait for it...) increasing their vote - from 7.5 in 2012 to 8% now - you did notice that greens are now on 8% didn't you longy?

Newspoll has greens at 7%

how about we wait until the actual election result hmmm??? and you really DO need to remember the tendency for Greens to poll around 2% higher than they end up getting in elections. It is a well-known and repeated phenomena which you will no doubt refute.

You really are hillarious longy - we've recently had two elections, both of which the left was severely on the nose. In both elections the Green vote didn't go below 6%. Now when the tables have completely turned - where the LNP is on the nose and set to face a slaughter, and when the Green vote everywhere has been on the up and up - you would have us believe the Greens are on course for a far lower vote than 6%.

You live in a fantasy world longy. Greens vote will either hold steady or slightly increase this election, and in the 2016 poll they will significantly increase their dissapointing 8% nationally. And I will be so looking forward to ridiculing your 4% prediction when that happens.

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longweekend58

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Re: Surge in QLD LNP support
Reply #21 - Jan 10^th, 2015 at 5:37pm

polite_gandalf wrote on Jan 10^th, 2015 at 5:28pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 10^th, 2015 at 4:53pm:

polite_gandalf wrote on Jan 10^th, 2015 at 4:47pm:

umm longy, the federal green vote has increased - everywhere.

The state green vote has, as far as I know, increased - everywhere.

Now you start a thread giving the latest QLD state poll - showing the greens (wait for it...) increasing their vote - from 7.5 in 2012 to 8% now - you did notice that greens are now on 8% didn't you longy?

Newspoll has greens at 7%

how about we wait until the actual election result hmmm??? and you really DO need to remember the tendency for Greens to poll around 2% higher than they end up getting in elections. It is a well-known and repeated phenomena which you will no doubt refute.

You really are hillarious longy - we've recently had two elections, both of which the left was severely on the nose. In both elections the Green vote didn't go below 6%. Now when the tables have completely turned - where the LNP is on the nose and set to face a slaughter, and when the Green vote everywhere has been on the up and up - you would have us believe the Greens are on course for a far lower vote than 6%.

You live in a fantasy world longy. Greens vote will either hold steady or slightly increase this election, and in the 2016 poll they will significantly increase their dissapointing 8% nationally. And I will be so looking forward to ridiculing your 4% prediction when that happens.

the only dope talking about the Green vote is you. this is a thread about the QLD STATE ELECTION and how the LNP are going to win it easily.

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Aussie

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Re: Surge in QLD LNP support
Reply #22 - Jan 10^th, 2015 at 5:44pm

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 10^th, 2015 at 5:37pm:

polite_gandalf wrote on Jan 10^th, 2015 at 5:28pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 10^th, 2015 at 4:53pm:

polite_gandalf wrote on Jan 10^th, 2015 at 4:47pm:

umm longy, the federal green vote has increased - everywhere.

The state green vote has, as far as I know, increased - everywhere.

Now you start a thread giving the latest QLD state poll - showing the greens (wait for it...) increasing their vote - from 7.5 in 2012 to 8% now - you did notice that greens are now on 8% didn't you longy?

Newspoll has greens at 7%

how about we wait until the actual election result hmmm??? and you really DO need to remember the tendency for Greens to poll around 2% higher than they end up getting in elections. It is a well-known and repeated phenomena which you will no doubt refute.

You really are hillarious longy - we've recently had two elections, both of which the left was severely on the nose. In both elections the Green vote didn't go below 6%. Now when the tables have completely turned - where the LNP is on the nose and set to face a slaughter, and when the Green vote everywhere has been on the up and up - you would have us believe the Greens are on course for a far lower vote than 6%.

You live in a fantasy world longy. Greens vote will either hold steady or slightly increase this election, and in the 2016 poll they will significantly increase their dissapointing 8% nationally. And I will be so looking forward to ridiculing your 4% prediction when that happens.

the only dope talking about the Green vote is you. this is a thread about the QLD STATE ELECTION and how the LNP are going to win it easily.

Do you take no notice of your own links.....at all. I quote this from it:

Quote:

However, with the LNP and Labor locked at 52 to 48 per cent, two-party preferred, the election could still deliver a hung parliament.

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Bam

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Re: Surge in QLD LNP support
Reply #23 - Jan 10^th, 2015 at 8:14pm

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 10^th, 2015 at 12:11pm:

A new Galaxy Poll has revealed surging support for Queensland Premier Campbell Newman's LNP Government after the first week of the election campaign.

The poll in today's Courier Mail newspaper shows a 4 per cent jump in support for the Liberal National Party (LNP).

What were you saying a few days ago? This?
longweekend58 wrote on Jan 6^th, 2015 at 11:27am:

ONE DATA POINT does not make a trend.

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You are not entitled to your opinion. You are only entitled to hold opinions that you can defend through sound, reasoned argument.

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Bam

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Re: Surge in QLD LNP support
Reply #24 - Jan 10^th, 2015 at 8:26pm

polite_gandalf wrote on Jan 10^th, 2015 at 5:28pm:

Newspoll has greens at 7%

The Greens polled 7.53% at the last election. At the election before that they polled 8.37%. Parties on the left got hammered at the last election and this election will see some statistical regression to the mean.

I expect the Greens vote to increase modestly at this election, with primary votes in the range 8.0% to 8.5%. It all depends on how well they run their campaign. I do not expect the Greens to win any seats though.

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« Last Edit: Jan 10^th, 2015 at 9:00pm by Bam »

You are not entitled to your opinion. You are only entitled to hold opinions that you can defend through sound, reasoned argument.

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Bam Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21905 Gender:	Re: Surge in QLD LNP support Reply #25 - Jan 10^th, 2015 at 9:03pm longweekend58 wrote on Jan 10^th, 2015 at 5:37pm: this is a thread about the QLD STATE ELECTION and how the LNP are going to win it easily. Comedy?
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longweekend58

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Re: Surge in QLD LNP support
Reply #26 - Jan 11^th, 2015 at 2:05pm

Aussie wrote on Jan 10^th, 2015 at 5:44pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 10^th, 2015 at 5:37pm:

polite_gandalf wrote on Jan 10^th, 2015 at 5:28pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 10^th, 2015 at 4:53pm:

polite_gandalf wrote on Jan 10^th, 2015 at 4:47pm:

umm longy, the federal green vote has increased - everywhere.

The state green vote has, as far as I know, increased - everywhere.

Now you start a thread giving the latest QLD state poll - showing the greens (wait for it...) increasing their vote - from 7.5 in 2012 to 8% now - you did notice that greens are now on 8% didn't you longy?

Newspoll has greens at 7%

how about we wait until the actual election result hmmm??? and you really DO need to remember the tendency for Greens to poll around 2% higher than they end up getting in elections. It is a well-known and repeated phenomena which you will no doubt refute.

You really are hillarious longy - we've recently had two elections, both of which the left was severely on the nose. In both elections the Green vote didn't go below 6%. Now when the tables have completely turned - where the LNP is on the nose and set to face a slaughter, and when the Green vote everywhere has been on the up and up - you would have us believe the Greens are on course for a far lower vote than 6%.

You live in a fantasy world longy. Greens vote will either hold steady or slightly increase this election, and in the 2016 poll they will significantly increase their dissapointing 8% nationally. And I will be so looking forward to ridiculing your 4% prediction when that happens.

the only dope talking about the Green vote is you. this is a thread about the QLD STATE ELECTION and how the LNP are going to win it easily.

Do you take no notice of your own links.....at all. I quote this from it:

Quote:

However, with the LNP and Labor locked at 52 to 48 per cent, two-party preferred, the election could still deliver a hung parliament.

I rejected it as being a rather stupid statement since hung parliaments are generated very very rarely and always by 50/50 margins. Even howard who had a 50.2/49.8 had a comfortable working majority.

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longweekend58

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Re: Surge in QLD LNP support
Reply #27 - Jan 11^th, 2015 at 2:05pm

Bam wrote on Jan 10^th, 2015 at 8:14pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 10^th, 2015 at 12:11pm:

A new Galaxy Poll has revealed surging support for Queensland Premier Campbell Newman's LNP Government after the first week of the election campaign.

The poll in today's Courier Mail newspaper shows a 4 per cent jump in support for the Liberal National Party (LNP).

What were you saying a few days ago? This?
longweekend58 wrote on Jan 6^th, 2015 at 11:27am:

ONE DATA POINT does not make a trend.

on what planet is the 955th newspoll in QLD a 'single data point'?

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longweekend58

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Re: Surge in QLD LNP support
Reply #28 - Jan 11^th, 2015 at 2:06pm

Bam wrote on Jan 10^th, 2015 at 8:26pm:

polite_gandalf wrote on Jan 10^th, 2015 at 5:28pm:

Newspoll has greens at 7%

The Greens polled 7.53% at the last election. At the election before that they polled 8.37%. Parties on the left got hammered at the last election and this election will see some statistical regression to the mean.

I expect the Greens vote to increase modestly at this election, with primary votes in the range 8.0% to 8.5%. It all depends on how well they run their campaign. I do not expect the Greens to win any seats though.

that is a reasonable guess although being QLD I expect the Greens to show tenths of a percentage improvement at best.

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Aussie Gold Member Offline OzPolitic Posts: 38770 Gender:	Re: Surge in QLD LNP support Reply #29 - Jan 13^th, 2015 at 11:06pm Gee.....I wonder if this has any relevance in Queensland? Link. Two party preferred....ALP ahead by 8.5%.
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