Australian Politics Forum - Surge in QLD LNP support

Bam

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Re: Surge in QLD LNP support
Reply #30 - Jan 13^th, 2015 at 11:18pm

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 11^th, 2015 at 2:05pm:

Bam wrote on Jan 10^th, 2015 at 8:14pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 10^th, 2015 at 12:11pm:

A new Galaxy Poll has revealed surging support for Queensland Premier Campbell Newman's LNP Government after the first week of the election campaign.

The poll in today's Courier Mail newspaper shows a 4 per cent jump in support for the Liberal National Party (LNP).

What were you saying a few days ago? This?
longweekend58 wrote on Jan 6^th, 2015 at 11:27am:

ONE DATA POINT does not make a trend.

on what planet is the 955th newspoll in QLD a 'single data point'?

On what planet has Newspoll released 955 Queensland state election polls?

Looks like another bogus longy statistic.

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You are not entitled to your opinion. You are only entitled to hold opinions that you can defend through sound, reasoned argument.

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ian

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Re: Surge in QLD LNP support
Reply #31 - Jan 13^th, 2015 at 11:20pm

Bam wrote on Jan 13^th, 2015 at 11:18pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 11^th, 2015 at 2:05pm:

Bam wrote on Jan 10^th, 2015 at 8:14pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 10^th, 2015 at 12:11pm:

A new Galaxy Poll has revealed surging support for Queensland Premier Campbell Newman's LNP Government after the first week of the election campaign.

The poll in today's Courier Mail newspaper shows a 4 per cent jump in support for the Liberal National Party (LNP).

What were you saying a few days ago? This?
longweekend58 wrote on Jan 6^th, 2015 at 11:27am:

ONE DATA POINT does not make a trend.

on what planet is the 955th newspoll in QLD a 'single data point'?

On what planet has Newspoll released 955 Queensland state election polls?

Looks like another bogus longy statistic.

come on, call it what it is. A direct lie.

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longweekend58

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Re: Surge in QLD LNP support
Reply #32 - Jan 16^th, 2015 at 6:39pm

Bam wrote on Jan 13^th, 2015 at 11:18pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 11^th, 2015 at 2:05pm:

Bam wrote on Jan 10^th, 2015 at 8:14pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 10^th, 2015 at 12:11pm:

A new Galaxy Poll has revealed surging support for Queensland Premier Campbell Newman's LNP Government after the first week of the election campaign.

The poll in today's Courier Mail newspaper shows a 4 per cent jump in support for the Liberal National Party (LNP).

What were you saying a few days ago? This?
longweekend58 wrote on Jan 6^th, 2015 at 11:27am:

ONE DATA POINT does not make a trend.

on what planet is the 955th newspoll in QLD a 'single data point'?

On what planet has Newspoll released 955 Queensland state election polls?

Looks like another bogus longy statistic.

just imagine if Bam understood sarcasm.

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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John Smith Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 74677 Gender:	Re: Surge in QLD LNP support Reply #33 - Jan 16^th, 2015 at 7:51pm longweekend58 wrote on Jan 16^th, 2015 at 6:39pm: just imagine if Bam understood sarcasm just imagine if you understood English
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longweekend58 Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 45675 Gender:	Re: Surge in QLD LNP support Reply #34 - Jan 17^th, 2015 at 7:27am John Smith wrote on Jan 16^th, 2015 at 7:51pm: longweekend58 wrote on Jan 16^th, 2015 at 6:39pm: just imagine if Bam understood sarcasm just imagine if you understood English talk about the pot calling the kettle black!
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John Smith

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Re: Surge in QLD LNP support
Reply #35 - Jan 17^th, 2015 at 8:49am

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 17^th, 2015 at 7:27am:

John Smith wrote on Jan 16^th, 2015 at 7:51pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 16^th, 2015 at 6:39pm:

just imagine if Bam understood sarcasm

just imagine if you understood English Cheesy

talk about the pot calling the kettle black!

no, this thread is about the QLD election, if you want to talk about pots and kettles, start another thread. Cheesy

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Our esteemed leader:
I hope that bitch who was running their brothels for them gets raped with a cactus.

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Bam

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Re: Surge in QLD LNP support
Reply #36 - Jan 17^th, 2015 at 9:50am

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 16^th, 2015 at 6:39pm:

Bam wrote on Jan 13^th, 2015 at 11:18pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 11^th, 2015 at 2:05pm:

Bam wrote on Jan 10^th, 2015 at 8:14pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 10^th, 2015 at 12:11pm:

A new Galaxy Poll has revealed surging support for Queensland Premier Campbell Newman's LNP Government after the first week of the election campaign.

The poll in today's Courier Mail newspaper shows a 4 per cent jump in support for the Liberal National Party (LNP).

What were you saying a few days ago? This?
longweekend58 wrote on Jan 6^th, 2015 at 11:27am:

ONE DATA POINT does not make a trend.

on what planet is the 955th newspoll in QLD a 'single data point'?

On what planet has Newspoll released 955 Queensland state election polls?

Looks like another bogus longy statistic.

just imagine if Bam understood sarcasm.

What, like this whole thread? You're claiming a "surge" when it suits your argument and denounce single data points when it doesn't.

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You are not entitled to your opinion. You are only entitled to hold opinions that you can defend through sound, reasoned argument.

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longweekend58

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Re: Surge in QLD LNP support
Reply #37 - Jan 17^th, 2015 at 12:14pm

Bam wrote on Jan 17^th, 2015 at 9:50am:

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 16^th, 2015 at 6:39pm:

Bam wrote on Jan 13^th, 2015 at 11:18pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 11^th, 2015 at 2:05pm:

Bam wrote on Jan 10^th, 2015 at 8:14pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 10^th, 2015 at 12:11pm:

A new Galaxy Poll has revealed surging support for Queensland Premier Campbell Newman's LNP Government after the first week of the election campaign.

The poll in today's Courier Mail newspaper shows a 4 per cent jump in support for the Liberal National Party (LNP).

What were you saying a few days ago? This?
longweekend58 wrote on Jan 6^th, 2015 at 11:27am:

ONE DATA POINT does not make a trend.

on what planet is the 955th newspoll in QLD a 'single data point'?

On what planet has Newspoll released 955 Queensland state election polls?

Looks like another bogus longy statistic.

just imagine if Bam understood sarcasm.

What, like this whole thread? You're claiming a "surge" when it suits your argument and denounce single data points when it doesn't.

going from 50/50 to 52/48 is a surge in anyones book. Even yours.

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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Redmond Neck Gold Member Offline OzPolitic Posts: 21628 ACT Gender:	Re: Surge in QLD LNP support Reply #38 - Jan 17^th, 2015 at 4:46pm
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sir prince duke alevine Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 23619 Gender:	Re: Surge in QLD LNP support Reply #39 - Jan 17^th, 2015 at 4:58pm Yes but are these rounded figures?
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Redmond Neck Gold Member Offline OzPolitic Posts: 21628 ACT Gender:	Re: Surge in QLD LNP support Reply #40 - Jan 17^th, 2015 at 5:01pm sir prince duke alevine wrote on Jan 17^th, 2015 at 4:58pm: Yes but are these rounded figures? Ask Longie, he is the spurt!
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Aussie

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Re: Surge in QLD LNP support
Reply #41 - Jan 17^th, 2015 at 5:04pm

There is two weeks to go, and that is an eon. Whenever I'm not in taxi land (most there are either PUP or ALP) just about all my mates and neighbours and associates are Lib. Only one out of, say a dozen, will vote LNP this time. They are pissed off with (a) Newmann, and (b) the Sunshine Coast, being Liberal Party heartland, getting ferking nothing, except hollow promises for a decade or two. Newmann has tipped them over the edge.............or maybe my nagging has.

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longweekend58

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Re: Surge in QLD LNP support
Reply #42 - Jan 17^th, 2015 at 5:17pm

Bam wrote on Jan 17^th, 2015 at 9:50am:

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 16^th, 2015 at 6:39pm:

Bam wrote on Jan 13^th, 2015 at 11:18pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 11^th, 2015 at 2:05pm:

Bam wrote on Jan 10^th, 2015 at 8:14pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 10^th, 2015 at 12:11pm:

A new Galaxy Poll has revealed surging support for Queensland Premier Campbell Newman's LNP Government after the first week of the election campaign.

The poll in today's Courier Mail newspaper shows a 4 per cent jump in support for the Liberal National Party (LNP).

What were you saying a few days ago? This?
longweekend58 wrote on Jan 6^th, 2015 at 11:27am:

ONE DATA POINT does not make a trend.

on what planet is the 955th newspoll in QLD a 'single data point'?

On what planet has Newspoll released 955 Queensland state election polls?

Looks like another bogus longy statistic.

just imagine if Bam understood sarcasm.

What, like this whole thread? You're claiming a "surge" when it suits your argument and denounce single data points when it doesn't.

grow a brain. the 'surge' was supported by multiple polls. I know you cant cope with the thought of the LNP winning easily, but it is happening.

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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St George of the Garden Gold Member Offline http://tinyurl.com/n 3o8m2x Posts: 9809 Gender:	Re: Surge in QLD LNP support Reply #43 - Jan 17^th, 2015 at 10:16pm http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland-state-election-2015/galaxy-poll-sh... The courier mail is not happy. Their boy may not get up. A good indication of when the Federal election gets a bit closer. Hang on. They will get ugly.
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Karnal

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Re: Surge in QLD LNP support
Reply #44 - Jan 18^th, 2015 at 12:03am

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 11^th, 2015 at 2:06pm:

Bam wrote on Jan 10^th, 2015 at 8:26pm:

polite_gandalf wrote on Jan 10^th, 2015 at 5:28pm:

Newspoll has greens at 7%

The Greens polled 7.53% at the last election. At the election before that they polled 8.37%. Parties on the left got hammered at the last election and this election will see some statistical regression to the mean.

I expect the Greens vote to increase modestly at this election, with primary votes in the range 8.0% to 8.5%. It all depends on how well they run their campaign. I do not expect the Greens to win any seats though.

that is a reasonable guess although being QLD I expect the Greens to show tenths of a percentage improvement at best.

It’s hardly a guess, Longy, it’s a sound mathematical calculation.

We know from your previous posts that when you say things rise by tenths of a percentage point, you actually mean they REMAIN STABLE.

Ipso facto, we can conclude that the Greens vote will drop by another 4 percentage points as you predicted, based on your current prediction of tenths of a percentage point improvement at best.

Good work, Longy. It’s a complicated formula, but you proved it in the end.

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