Queensland election 2015: Voters turn on LNP in key seats

    The Australian
    January 24, 2015


CAMPBELL Newman is in the fight of his political career, with the Liberal National Party facing massive swings in regional Queensland, an exclusive Newspoll has found.   

Just a week out from the state election, the poll conducted for The Weekend Australian reveals a swing of up to 13 per cent in key LNP-held seats across Queensland.

Dozens of LNP seats would fall to Labor next Saturday if the backlash against the first-term Newman government was carried across the state.   

The Newspoll of voters this week in the electorates of ­Ipswich West, 40km outside Brisbane, Keppel, near Rockhampton, and Cairns in the far north, reveals the LNP’s primary vote has plummeted since it swept to power in 2012 with the biggest majority in an Australian parliament.

In those key seats, Labor’s primary vote has jumped 16 points to 47 per cent in the three seats, held by Labor before 2012, with the LNP’s vote collapsing more than eight points to 43.5 per cent. On a two-party preferred basis, Labor leads the LNP 56 per cent to 44 per cent — a swing of 13 per cent.

But insiders from both major parties say that their own polling shows the contest is far from over, with some voters still wavering, big variations in the swings across the state and the impact of preference flows still hard to pick.

Newspoll found almost two-thirds of voters were locked in and would not change their mind before election day. But a further 26 per cent of voters say there was still a slight chance they would vote for someone else.

If the support remained ­unchanged until election day, Ipswich West (held on a margin of 7.2 per cent) and Keppel (6.4 per cent) would almost certainly fall to Labor and Cairns (8.9 per cent) would be a tight contest.

After both the major parties held their official campaign launches this week, the state’s $76 billion gross debt — racked-up under previous Labor governments — and the Newman government’s proposed privatisation remain the major issues marking the policy divide.

Labor is corralling some of the protest vote, with support for the minor parties and independents falling almost six points from 2012 to 13 per cent.

The minor parties this week struck a deal to exchange preferences and exclude the major ­parties on their how-to-vote cards. The deal is likely to hurt the government in some seats, with the vote exhausted by the conservative-leaning minor parties before it can flow to the LNP under Queensland’s optional preferential system.

During the campaign, Mr Newman has repeatedly warned of a hung parliament and the LNP this week launched an advertising blitz appealing to voters not to vote for the minor parties.

The LNP holds 73 of the 89 seats in the unicameral parliament.

The survey found that support for the minor parties and independents in the three seats could still move to the major parties.

Only a small proportion specifically nominated a minor party or independent, as many voters expressed general support without being able to make their favoured candidate. The Newspoll also confirmed that Mr Newman — who is fighting a knife-edge contest to hold his own seat of Ashgrove — continues to wrestle with his unpopularity among voters.

Labor leader Annastacia ­Palaszczuk holds a comfortable lead of 46 per cent to 36 per cent over Mr Newman on the question of who would make the better premier.

It is a turnaround on the statewide Newspoll, held in the first few days after the election was called on January 6, which showed Mr Newman was rated as the better premier 42 per cent to 38 per cent ahead of Ms ­Palaszczuk.

In the three seats, 45 per cent of voters are satisfied with Ms ­Palaszczuk in her performance as Opposition Leader and 33 per cent are dissatisfied. A significant number, 22 per cent, remain uncommitted in a sign that many voters still don’t know her.

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It looks like the swing against the government is going to be larger in regional areas. This could be decisive.

In 1999, an unexpectedly large regional swing caused the Coalition Kennett government to lose in Victoria in an election that the government was widely expected to win. Could the same thing happen here?

Imagine how worse the polls would be if tony came out of hiding.

philperth2010 wrote on Jan 24^th, 2015 at 11:58am:


Dunno about deserve, but yeah, it's a strange old place when it comes to politics.

philperth2010 wrote on Jan 24^th, 2015 at 11:58am:


fair go .,.. not all queenslanders deserve them. I didn't vote for any of them.
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I think it must have something to do with 2nd or 3rd generation Qlders ... by that stage their brains are cooked. Thats why I plan on retiring back in gods country (Illawarra region) one day.