Australian Politics Forum - ReachTELL poll: Newman set to lose his seat

polite_gandalf

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ReachTELL poll: Newman set to lose his seat
Jan 28^th, 2015 at 6:20pm

Results just announced on 7 news:

Quote:

Ashgrove voters appear ready to vote Campbell Newman out of office, with a new poll showing the Queensland premier trailing his Labor opponent just four days before the election.

The ReachTEL poll commissioned by Seven News showed Newman had 46% of the two-party-preferred vote in his inner-west Brisbane seat, a drop of one point since a previous poll on 13 January.

Labor’s former Queensland environment minister, Kate Jones, who is following a low-key campaign strategy, had improved her two-party vote by one point to 54%.

The results are likely to trigger a fresh round of speculation about who would become premier if Newman lost his seat of Ashgrove and the LNP won Saturday’s state-wide election.

The poll of 861 Ashgrove voters on Tuesday evening also confirmed significant discontent with Newman’s governing style.

http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/jan/28/campbell-newman-on-brink-o...

Obvious disclaimer about the small sample size.

I'll be interested to see if the other polls back this up.

In any case - just 3 days out, and the lead has only increased for labor. What would such uncertainty about the premier's own seat be having on the electorate overall? This could be an interesting game-changer in the state-wide result.

Thoughts?

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John Smith Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 74348 Gender:	Re: ReachTELL poll: Newman set to lose his seat Reply #1 - Jan 28^th, 2015 at 6:22pm one could be excused for thinking Abbott tried to sabotage Newman with his knighthood of Phillip just days before the election
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John Smith Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 74348 Gender:	Re: ReachTELL poll: Newman set to lose his seat Reply #2 - Jan 28^th, 2015 at 6:24pm polite_gandalf wrote on Jan 28^th, 2015 at 6:20pm: I'll be interested to see if the other polls back this up. every poll for the last 6 months, if not longer, has shown Newman would lose his seat
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greggerypeccary Gold Member Online Australian Politics Posts: 136880 Gender:	Re: ReachTELL poll: Newman set to lose his seat Reply #3 - Jan 28^th, 2015 at 6:27pm This is fantastic news. No really ... it's FANTASTIC news.
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polite_gandalf

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Re: ReachTELL poll: Newman set to lose his seat
Reply #4 - Jan 28^th, 2015 at 6:29pm

John Smith wrote on Jan 28^th, 2015 at 6:24pm:

polite_gandalf wrote on Jan 28^th, 2015 at 6:20pm:

I'll be interested to see if the other polls back this up.

every poll for the last 6 months, if not longer, has shown Newman would lose his seat

True, but if memory serves, in 2012 the polls were saying Newman couldn't win Ashgrove right up until the very end. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we saw a significant narrowing in the Friday polls.

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A resident Islam critic who claims to represent western values said:
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Outlawing the enemy's uniform - hijab, islamic beard - is not depriving one's own people of their freedoms.

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President Elect, The Mechanic

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Re: ReachTELL poll: Newman set to lose his seat
Reply #5 - Jan 29^th, 2015 at 6:40am

well dur...

when they made him their political leader the only seat that they could find him was a "marginal" seat..

it was always going to be hard for him to keep his seat in the 2015 election especially when he's had to make some hard decisions to get QLD back on track...

it was a stupid decision by the LNP to put him in that seat...

or was it? Wink

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Q

The STORM has arrived
Every Dog Has Its Day...
Dark to Light.
Sheep no more.

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Bobby.

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Re: ReachTELL poll: Newman set to lose his seat
Reply #6 - Jan 29^th, 2015 at 6:50am

polite_gandalf wrote on Jan 28^th, 2015 at 6:20pm:

Results just announced on 7 news:

Quote:

Ashgrove voters appear ready to vote Campbell Newman out of office, with a new poll showing the Queensland premier trailing his Labor opponent just four days before the election.

The ReachTEL poll commissioned by Seven News showed Newman had 46% of the two-party-preferred vote in his inner-west Brisbane seat, a drop of one point since a previous poll on 13 January.

Labor’s former Queensland environment minister, Kate Jones, who is following a low-key campaign strategy, had improved her two-party vote by one point to 54%.

The results are likely to trigger a fresh round of speculation about who would become premier if Newman lost his seat of Ashgrove and the LNP won Saturday’s state-wide election.

The poll of 861 Ashgrove voters on Tuesday evening also confirmed significant discontent with Newman’s governing style.

http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/jan/28/campbell-newman-on-brink-o...

Obvious disclaimer about the small sample size.

I'll be interested to see if the other polls back this up.

In any case - just 3 days out, and the lead has only increased for labor. What would such uncertainty about the premier's own seat be having on the electorate overall? This could be an interesting game-changer in the state-wide result.

Thoughts?

Labor or Liberal - it's all the same rubbish leadership to me.

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