Australian Politics Forum - Exit polls dire for LNP Government.

ImSpartacus2 Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 6913	Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government. Reply #90 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 8:19pm ......
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ImSpartacus2 Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 6913	Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government. Reply #91 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 8:21pm polite_gandalf wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:52pm: Interesting to note that the LNP primary vote remains above labor's. Labor succeeding by former PUP voters returning to them and also a surprisingly solid greens vote. Great result for the Greens. A decided swing to the left. Yeahhhh
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St George of the Garden Gold Member Offline http://tinyurl.com/n 3o8m2x Posts: 9809 Gender:	Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government. Reply #92 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 8:21pm Quote: 8.18pm. So I’ve still got Labor on 44, with another four seats that could go either way. 8.16pm. Albert now being called for LNP. 8.09pm. Pumicestone has been downgraded from ALP gain to ALP ahead, so Labor back down to 44. So sorry if any champagne corks just popped/wrists got slashed.
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MOTR

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Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government.
Reply #93 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 8:29pm

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8.26pm. I should add that given the late surge to Labor, you would expect late counting to be better for them. So I’m leaning back towards a hung parliament.

8.23pm. Ferny Grove pegged back from Labor win to Labor gain. So it’s still a very live question whether it’s a hung parliament or a Labor majority. Wayne Swan graciously allowing for an LNP majority, but that’s hard to see. My count: Labor 43, LNP 37, cross-bench 3. In doubt: Ferny Grove, Mansfield, Maryborough, Pumicestone, Whitsunday.

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MOTR Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 6646	Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government. Reply #94 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 8:32pm Ferny Grove 15 of 35 booths, ALP 51.11 LNP 48.89
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Bam

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Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government.
Reply #95 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 8:35pm

Interesting ... the ABC computer has just dumped a bunch of seats back into In Doubt ... it went from 5 to 17.

LNP 30
ALP 39
Other 3
In Doubt 17

When In Doubt was on 5, Antony Green stated that the ALP was ahead in all of them.

Edit: It's back to 5 ...

LNP 38
ALP 43
Other 3
In Doubt 5 (ALP ahead in all 5)

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Karnal Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 95609 Gender:	Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government. Reply #96 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 8:38pm MOTR wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 8:13pm: Tightening up again on the computer. Yet all the pundits are talking Labor victory. They’re biased too. Idiots.
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greggerypeccary Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 137055 Gender:	Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government. Reply #97 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 8:39pm Fantastic result in Bundaberg.
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St George of the Garden

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Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government.
Reply #98 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 8:49pm

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8.41pm. I’ve still got Labor working off a base of 41, and I would rather be Labor than the LNP in Ferny Grove, Mansfield, Mount Coot-tha and Mundingburra.

8.38pm. ABC computer says Labor win in Mount Ommaney, but they’re only 1.0%. Not that it had ever been in my Labor total.

8.38pm. Mount Cooth-tha now reined back from Labor win to Labor ahead – a bit of a trend.

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MOTR Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 6646	Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government. Reply #99 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 8:50pm Quote: 8.41pm. I’ve still got Labor working off a base of 41, and I would rather be Labor than the LNP in Ferny Grove, Mansfield, Mount Coot-tha and Mundingburra.
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St George of the Garden

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Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government.
Reply #100 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 8:54pm

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8.49pm. That said, there are further seats which might go Labor: Mansfield, Maryborough, Pumicestone, Whitsunday, over and above the four that are their most likely pathway to a majority.

8.46pm. The ABC has reined Glass House back from LNP hold to LNP ahead. But my instinct would be that the LNP will end up winning anything where they’re ahead. The question is, are these 2% Labor leads in Ferny Grove, Mansfield, Mount Coot-tha and Mundingburra sticky enough to hold off a likely move back to the LNP in late counting.

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MOTR Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 6646	Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government. Reply #101 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 8:55pm Quote: Mount Coot-tha Booths In: 11 of 35 RICE, Saxon LNP 6,558 47.67 MILES, Steven ALP 7,198 52.33 Exhausted 595
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MOTR Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 6646	Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government. Reply #102 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 8:57pm 43 Labor 39 LNP 4 seats in doubt ABC predicting 2 of those in doubt to go to Labor, creating a one seat majority.
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St George of the Garden Gold Member Offline http://tinyurl.com/n 3o8m2x Posts: 9809 Gender:	Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government. Reply #103 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 9:00pm ABC predicts 45 Labor.
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The Mole Gold Member Offline http://www.ozpolitic .co/album/forum-atta chments/y Posts: 1499 Gender:	Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government. Reply #104 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 9:02pm St George of the Garden wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 9:00pm: ABC predicts 45 Labor. How many do they need to form Govt?
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Poll
Question: how many years take for labor to balance the budget?
* This poll has now closed *
1 year 4 (36.4%) 2 years 2 (18.2%) 3 years 3 (27.3%) Never 2 (18.2%) Total votes: 11 « Created by: President Elect, The Mechanic on: Jan 31^st, 2015 at 9:18pm »