Australian Politics Forum - Exit polls dire for LNP Government.

Dnarever

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Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government.
Reply #195 - Feb 1^st, 2015 at 7:54am

Quote:

Poll Question: how many years take for labor to balance the budget?

You understand that when the Abbott government came to power in 2013 they advised that the next projected surplus would be in 2024 ?

That is that the Liberals were promising deficit budgets for 11 years, they have started by producing substantially greater deficits that continue to blow out further by the day.

Why do you think that Labor can turn it around in 3 years or less ?

I would think it would take 3 years just for Labor to get it back on the track they had it before 2013. They will probably need a term to undo the additional mess the Liberals have made.

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John Smith

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Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government.
Reply #196 - Feb 1^st, 2015 at 8:06am

Dnarever wrote on Feb 1^st, 2015 at 7:54am:

Why do you think that Labor can turn it around in 3 years or less ?

abbott can take as long as he needs, even if that 11 yrs blows out to 20, they will never complain

labor needs to bring a surplus in 12 months or its proof that they are bad economic managers

the logic of the rightards Cheesy

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Our esteemed leader:
I hope that bitch who was running their brothels for them gets raped with a cactus.

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Kat

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Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government.
Reply #197 - Feb 1^st, 2015 at 11:21am

John Smith wrote on Feb 1^st, 2015 at 8:06am:

Dnarever wrote on Feb 1^st, 2015 at 7:54am:

Why do you think that Labor can turn it around in 3 years or less ?

abbott can take as long as he needs, even if that 11 yrs blows out to 20, they will never complain

labor needs to bring a surplus in 12 months or its proof that they are bad economic managers

the logic of the rightards Cheesy

All this 'surplus' idiocy is a bad joke, and a serious misrepresentation.

Debt is not a bad thing if it results in something positive (pink batts, BER, Snowy
Scheme, birth of the Holden etc), and is a sustainable debt (meaning we have the
ability to service it).

It is bad if it is frittered away on trivialities, bribes to vested interests, wasted on
ideologically-driven witch-hunts against previous governments and their achieve-
ments, or added-to by poor decisions like cutting-off revenue streams (carbon tax
and MRRT, throwing people out of work by bad free-trade deals etc).

Yes, we seem to usually be in debt under Labor. But things get done, things get
built, the needy are catered for. And we always have a good gredit-rating (AAA,
the best you can get - thanks, Wayne!).

Once the Libs get in, expenditure on 'good works' and infrastructure come to a
screaming halt, welfare gets slashed, unemployment rises. Yes, there MAY be a
surplus, but it's not guaranteed because Libs tend to 'leak' money to their backers
and others (ICAC, anyone?).

They'll then claim that their surplus is some kind of 'future fund' for a 'rainy day'
then spend years vilifying their opponents for actually using it when that rainy day
(the GFC) actually arrives.

What matters is not whether you are in surplus or debt, but the kind of debt, the
ability to service it, and the reason for incurring the debt in the first place.

I'd rather move forward under Labor, and carry a bit of debt, than stagnate or
regress under the coservatives while they hoard and sit on a surplus.

Only a total fool wouldn't.

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Its time

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Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government.
Reply #198 - Feb 1^st, 2015 at 11:42am

Kat wrote on Feb 1^st, 2015 at 11:21am:

John Smith wrote on Feb 1^st, 2015 at 8:06am:

Dnarever wrote on Feb 1^st, 2015 at 7:54am:

Why do you think that Labor can turn it around in 3 years or less ?

abbott can take as long as he needs, even if that 11 yrs blows out to 20, they will never complain

labor needs to bring a surplus in 12 months or its proof that they are bad economic managers

the logic of the rightards Cheesy

All this 'surplus' idiocy is a bad joke, and a serious misrepresentation.

Debt is not a bad thing if it results in something positive (pink batts, BER, Snowy
Scheme, birth of the Holden etc), and is a sustainable debt (meaning we have the
ability to service it).

It is bad if it is frittered away on trivialities, bribes to vested interests, wasted on
ideologically-driven witch-hunts against previous governments and their achieve-
ments, or added-to by poor decisions like cutting-off revenue streams (carbon tax
and MRRT, throwing people out of work by bad free-trade deals etc).

Yes, we seem to usually be in debt under Labor. But things get done, things get
built, the needy are catered for. And we always have a good gredit-rating (AAA,
the best you can get - thanks, Wayne!).

Once the Libs get in, expenditure on 'good works' and infrastructure come to a
screaming halt, welfare gets slashed, unemployment rises. Yes, there MAY be a
surplus, but it's not guaranteed because Libs tend to 'leak' money to their backers
and others (ICAC, anyone?).

They'll then claim that their surplus is some kind of 'future fund' for a 'rainy day'
then spend years vilifying their opponents for actually using it when that rainy day
(the GFC) actually arrives.

What matters is not whether you are in surplus or debt, but the kind of debt, the
ability to service it, and the reason for incurring the debt in the first place.

I'd rather move forward under Labor, and carry a bit of debt, than stagnate or
regress under the coservatives while they hoard and sit on a surplus.

Only a total fool wouldn't.

Well said.

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Kat Gold Member Offline Socialism IS the answer. Posts: 17709 Everywhere and no-where Gender:	Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government. Reply #199 - Feb 1^st, 2015 at 12:01pm Its time wrote on Feb 1^st, 2015 at 11:42am: Well said. Thank you. It's probably wasted on some, but...
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skippy.

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Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government.
Reply #200 - Feb 1^st, 2015 at 12:07pm

Its time wrote on Feb 1^st, 2015 at 11:42am:

Kat wrote on Feb 1^st, 2015 at 11:21am:

John Smith wrote on Feb 1^st, 2015 at 8:06am:

Dnarever wrote on Feb 1^st, 2015 at 7:54am:

Why do you think that Labor can turn it around in 3 years or less ?

abbott can take as long as he needs, even if that 11 yrs blows out to 20, they will never complain

labor needs to bring a surplus in 12 months or its proof that they are bad economic managers

the logic of the rightards Cheesy

All this 'surplus' idiocy is a bad joke, and a serious misrepresentation.

Debt is not a bad thing if it results in something positive (pink batts, BER, Snowy
Scheme, birth of the Holden etc), and is a sustainable debt (meaning we have the
ability to service it).

It is bad if it is frittered away on trivialities, bribes to vested interests, wasted on
ideologically-driven witch-hunts against previous governments and their achieve-
ments, or added-to by poor decisions like cutting-off revenue streams (carbon tax
and MRRT, throwing people out of work by bad free-trade deals etc).

Yes, we seem to usually be in debt under Labor. But things get done, things get
built, the needy are catered for. And we always have a good gredit-rating (AAA,
the best you can get - thanks, Wayne!).

Once the Libs get in, expenditure on 'good works' and infrastructure come to a
screaming halt, welfare gets slashed, unemployment rises. Yes, there MAY be a
surplus, but it's not guaranteed because Libs tend to 'leak' money to their backers
and others (ICAC, anyone?).

They'll then claim that their surplus is some kind of 'future fund' for a 'rainy day'
then spend years vilifying their opponents for actually using it when that rainy day
(the GFC) actually arrives.

What matters is not whether you are in surplus or debt, but the kind of debt, the
ability to service it, and the reason for incurring the debt in the first place.

I'd rather move forward under Labor, and carry a bit of debt, than stagnate or
regress under the coservatives while they hoard and sit on a surplus.

Only a total fool wouldn't.

Well said.

Ditto. I am so over imbeciles saying governments need to run surpluses . If governments are running surpluses that means the maggots are taxing us too much.

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The Mole Gold Member Offline http://www.ozpolitic .co/album/forum-atta chments/y Posts: 1499 Gender:	Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government. Reply #201 - Feb 1^st, 2015 at 1:19pm There is a deficit that needs addressing, and so higher taxes are something your going to have to get used too skips- but applied fairly instead of imposing austerity on the poor- taxes are a fact of life.
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Bam

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Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government.
Reply #202 - Feb 1^st, 2015 at 1:21pm

skippy. wrote on Feb 1^st, 2015 at 12:07pm:

I am so over imbeciles saying governments need to run surpluses . If governments are running surpluses that means the maggots are taxing us too much.

A surplus budget can be a good thing if it is a modest surplus in a balanced budget.

Massive surpluses can be a problem though. As you point out, they could be taxing too much. Other possibilities exist. There could be a boom going on and the funds are not being invested. The tax take could be okay but not enough money is being spent where it is needed.

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skippy.

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Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government.
Reply #203 - Feb 1^st, 2015 at 1:48pm

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:19pm:

MOTR wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:07pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:04pm:

MOTR wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 6:10pm:

Quote:

An exit poll is showing Queensland's LNP government led by Campbell Newman is in real trouble.

Nine's Galaxy exit poll of 17 electorates is showing a swing against the Liberal National Party of 16.8 per cent.

Labor needs a universal swing just over 12 per cent to snatch back government.

The polls close in just under an hour.

Labor currently holds just nine of the 89 seats in parliament after the 2012 thrashing.

Former Labor premier Peter Beattie told the Nine election panel if the exit polls translate across the state, it would be a "boilover result" for Labor led by Annastacia Palaszczuk.

"These figures are extraordinary but I want to see the real thing," Mr Beattie said.

I thought Annastacia had blown it, but perhaps not.

at one stage exit polls predicted Rudd would win the last election. Exit polls are wrong half the time because they are essentially rubbish but even rubbish can be right about half the time - by accident.

It sounds like there was too much of a metropolitan bias in these exit polls. Although they were right about Newman and the LNP being in danger.

you needed an exit poll to tell you that????

exit polls are intrinsically hopeless. Self-select, hopelessly biased and invariably wrong. Even when the get the winner right, they miss the margin by buckets.

Has longy posted since this? I expect he is tucked up under his rock frantically swaying back and forth.

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polite_gandalf

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Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government.
Reply #204 - Feb 1^st, 2015 at 2:40pm

The quirkiness of our preferential system on display in the electorate of Maryborough - where the race is between the 2nd and 3rd placed candidate. It is already known that the sitting LNP candidate, who will get the most first preferences, has already lost. Whoever ends up 2nd place between the labor and independent candidates will win on preferences.

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Aussie

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Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government.
Reply #205 - Feb 1^st, 2015 at 2:48pm

polite_gandalf wrote on Feb 1^st, 2015 at 2:40pm:

The quirkiness of our preferential system on display in the electorate of Maryborough - where the race is between the 2nd and 3rd placed candidate. It is already known that the sitting LNP candidate, who will get the most first preferences, has already lost. Whoever ends up 2nd place between the labor and independent candidates will win on preferences.

It is thought to be an ALP win. At 1.47pm Qld time with 75.4% of the vote counted:

Ind:             257
Green:          599
ONP:             1831
PUP:             3269
Ind:             5695
ALP:             6724
LNP:             7594

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Lobo

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Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government.
Reply #206 - Feb 1^st, 2015 at 2:53pm

skippy. wrote on Feb 1^st, 2015 at 1:48pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:19pm:

MOTR wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:07pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:04pm:

MOTR wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 6:10pm:

Quote:

An exit poll is showing Queensland's LNP government led by Campbell Newman is in real trouble.

Nine's Galaxy exit poll of 17 electorates is showing a swing against the Liberal National Party of 16.8 per cent.

Labor needs a universal swing just over 12 per cent to snatch back government.

The polls close in just under an hour.

Labor currently holds just nine of the 89 seats in parliament after the 2012 thrashing.

Former Labor premier Peter Beattie told the Nine election panel if the exit polls translate across the state, it would be a "boilover result" for Labor led by Annastacia Palaszczuk.

"These figures are extraordinary but I want to see the real thing," Mr Beattie said.

I thought Annastacia had blown it, but perhaps not.

at one stage exit polls predicted Rudd would win the last election. Exit polls are wrong half the time because they are essentially rubbish but even rubbish can be right about half the time - by accident.

It sounds like there was too much of a metropolitan bias in these exit polls. Although they were right about Newman and the LNP being in danger.

you needed an exit poll to tell you that????

exit polls are intrinsically hopeless. Self-select, hopelessly biased and invariably wrong. Even when the get the winner right, they miss the margin by buckets.

Has longy posted since this? I expect he is tucked up under his rock frantically swaying back and forth.

SNAP!!!!

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"What's in store for me in the direction I don't take?"-Jack Kerouac.

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polite_gandalf Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 20027 Canberra Gender:	Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government. Reply #207 - Feb 1^st, 2015 at 2:54pm Chris Foley was unseated in 2012 by the LNP by a margin of just 0.3%. Unfortunately for him his primary vote has slipped even further. Looks like the gap between him and labor has increased since last night.
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Lobo

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Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government.
Reply #208 - Feb 1^st, 2015 at 2:55pm

Independent MP Peter Wellington says he's happy to help Labor form a minority government in Queensland, because he wants the Liberal National Party gone.

Incredibly, Labor is on track to govern in its own right after being left with a mere seven seats in the state's 89-seat parliament at the 2012 election.

But there is a possibility Opposition Leader Annastacia Palaszczuk may need to call on the support of Katter's Australian Party MPs and Mr Wellington to form a minority government.

Mr Wellington says if that's the case, he won't ask anything of Ms Palaszczuk.

He'll just be happy to see an end to the LNP's privatisation plans and its "arrogant" leadership style.

http://www.9news.com.au/national/2015/02/01/00/52/labor-on-cusp-of-return-to-pow...

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"What's in store for me in the direction I don't take?"-Jack Kerouac.

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polite_gandalf

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Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government.
Reply #209 - Feb 1^st, 2015 at 3:07pm

The ABC site has 85 seats decided - 43 to labor, 39 to LNP and 3 to other. That leaves 4 still in doubt. Labor just need two of those. One of them - Maryborough as mentioned above - is looking more and more labor. The other listed as 'ALP ahead' - Mansfield - is still too close. Presuming the other two go to LNP (its said that once LNP are ahead they usually stay ahead), its really a 50-50 bet at this stage as to whether labor will have a one seat majority or will form government with support from one independent. If that quote from Wellington is true, then Labor shouldn't need any KAP support.

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Poll
Question: how many years take for labor to balance the budget?
* This poll has now closed *
1 year 4 (36.4%) 2 years 2 (18.2%) 3 years 3 (27.3%) Never 2 (18.2%) Total votes: 11 « Created by: President Elect, The Mechanic on: Jan 31^st, 2015 at 9:18pm »