Australian Politics Forum - Exit polls dire for LNP Government.

Kat

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Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government.
Reply #225 - Feb 2^nd, 2015 at 1:09pm

polite_gandalf wrote on Feb 2^nd, 2015 at 10:38am:

For what its worth, ABC has just changed Mansfield status to 'likely LNP retain'. This was the 50-50 seat I talked about that would likely determine if labor had a one seat majority or one seat short.

Hung parliament looking more likely - at this stage.

What's the bet enough votes will now somehow be 'found' to get the Nazis over the line... Angry

If so, the God help Queensland, the grubs WILL make them pay for nearly losing.

'Petty and petulant in defeat

Vindictive and vicious in victory'.

Neo-cons to a 'T'.

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polite_gandalf

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Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government.
Reply #226 - Feb 2^nd, 2015 at 1:16pm

in case anyone is interested (probably not but anyway Wink

)...

Yesterdays postal count caused a massive turnaround in Mansfield - where LNP went from a 25 vote deficit to a 495 vote lead.

Almost no chance of labor overhauling such a lead now.

So LNP seat count is shoring up on 42, with labor looking at 44 only - at best. But there is a very slight outside chance of labor losing one more (Ferny Grove or Maryborough).

In summary - hung parliament all but certain.

These are the possibilities as I see them:

1. labor 45, LNP 41, 3 other - labor majority of one (least likely)
2. labor 44, LNP 42, 3 other - labor forms government with support of 1 independent (most likely)
3. labor 43, LNP 42, 4 other - Foley wins in Maryborough - labor forms government with support of 2 independents (less likely)
4. labor 43 LNP 43, 3 other - Labor forms government with support of 2 independents (2nd least likely)

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« Last Edit: Feb 2^nd, 2015 at 1:22pm by polite_gandalf »

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Kat

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Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government.
Reply #227 - Feb 2^nd, 2015 at 1:27pm

polite_gandalf wrote on Feb 2^nd, 2015 at 1:16pm:

in case anyone is interested (probably not but anyway Wink

)...

Yesterdays postal count caused a massive turnaround in Mansfield - where LNP went from a 25 vote deficit to a 495 vote lead.

Almost no chance of labor overhauling such a lead now.

So LNP seat count is shoring up on 42, with labor looking at 44 only - at best. But there is a very slight outside chance of labor losing one more (Ferny Grove or Maryborough).

In summary - hung parliament all but certain.

These are the possibilities as I see them:

1. labor 45, LNP 41, 3 other - labor majority of one (least likely)
2. labor 44, LNP 42, 3 other - labor forms government with support of 1 independent (most likely)
3. labor 43, LNP 42, 4 other - Foley wins in Maryborough - labor forms government with support of 2 independents (less likely)
4. labor 43 LNP 43, 3 other - Labor forms government with support of 2 independents (2nd least likely)

Some of us are... thanks for that.

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polite_gandalf

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Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government.
Reply #228 - Feb 2^nd, 2015 at 1:30pm

Kat wrote on Feb 2^nd, 2015 at 1:09pm:

polite_gandalf wrote on Feb 2^nd, 2015 at 10:38am:

For what its worth, ABC has just changed Mansfield status to 'likely LNP retain'. This was the 50-50 seat I talked about that would likely determine if labor had a one seat majority or one seat short.

Hung parliament looking more likely - at this stage.

What's the bet enough votes will now somehow be 'found' to get the Nazis over the line... Angry

If so, the God help Queensland, the grubs WILL make them pay for nearly losing.

'Petty and petulant in defeat

Vindictive and vicious in victory'.

Neo-cons to a 'T'.

Not possible, fortunately. Labor are already confirmed on 43 seats with LNP on 39. There are only 5 undecided seats left - and even if Labor lose them all, they can only get to 43 (remembering that LNP are no longer in the race in Maryborough). And since we have 3 others (2 KAP and 1 independent - not sure who Foley would support, but his one vote wouldn't help the LNP anyway) who have all sworn not to support LNP, there really is no possibility of the LNP forming government.

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polite_gandalf

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Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government.
Reply #229 - Feb 2^nd, 2015 at 1:38pm

correction: labor is confirmed only on 42 seats, not 43.

So in fact there is a 5th possibility: LNP 43, ALP 42, 4 other. In which case labor would still form government with support from the 3 confirmed 'others'.

This scenario would require labor losing Ferny Grove - which the ABC has already given away to labor, who currently holds an over 500 vote lead.

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A resident Islam critic who claims to represent western values said:
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Outlawing the enemy's uniform - hijab, islamic beard - is not depriving one's own people of their freedoms.

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Kat

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Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government.
Reply #230 - Feb 2^nd, 2015 at 1:43pm

polite_gandalf wrote on Feb 2^nd, 2015 at 1:30pm:

Kat wrote on Feb 2^nd, 2015 at 1:09pm:

polite_gandalf wrote on Feb 2^nd, 2015 at 10:38am:

For what its worth, ABC has just changed Mansfield status to 'likely LNP retain'. This was the 50-50 seat I talked about that would likely determine if labor had a one seat majority or one seat short.

Hung parliament looking more likely - at this stage.

What's the bet enough votes will now somehow be 'found' to get the Nazis over the line... Angry

If so, the God help Queensland, the grubs WILL make them pay for nearly losing.

'Petty and petulant in defeat

Vindictive and vicious in victory'.

Neo-cons to a 'T'.

Not possible, fortunately. Labor are already confirmed on 43 seats with LNP on 39. There are only 5 undecided seats left - and even if Labor lose them all, they can only get to 43 (remembering that LNP are no longer in the race in Maryborough). And since we have 3 others (2 KAP and 1 independent - not sure who Foley would support, but his one vote wouldn't help the LNP anyway) who have all sworn not to support LNP, there really is no possibility of the LNP forming government.

That's nice to know.

My figures weren't as up-to-date as yours. Wink

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Postmodern Trendoid III

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Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government.
Reply #231 - Feb 2^nd, 2015 at 7:47pm

Kat wrote on Feb 2^nd, 2015 at 1:09pm:

polite_gandalf wrote on Feb 2^nd, 2015 at 10:38am:

For what its worth, ABC has just changed Mansfield status to 'likely LNP retain'. This was the 50-50 seat I talked about that would likely determine if labor had a one seat majority or one seat short.

Hung parliament looking more likely - at this stage.

What's the bet enough votes will now somehow be 'found' to get the Nazis over the line... Angry

If so, the God help Queensland, the grubs WILL make them pay for nearly losing.

'Petty and petulant in defeat

Vindictive and vicious in victory'.

Neo-cons to a 'T'.

Good propaganda, Comrade. Hate is all we need, not analysis. This is progress.

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Poll
Question: how many years take for labor to balance the budget?
* This poll has now closed *
1 year 4 (36.4%) 2 years 2 (18.2%) 3 years 3 (27.3%) Never 2 (18.2%) Total votes: 11 « Created by: President Elect, The Mechanic on: Jan 31^st, 2015 at 9:18pm »