Australian Politics Forum - Exit polls dire for LNP Government.

longweekend58

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Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government.
Reply #15 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:04pm

MOTR wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 6:10pm:

Quote:

An exit poll is showing Queensland's LNP government led by Campbell Newman is in real trouble.

Nine's Galaxy exit poll of 17 electorates is showing a swing against the Liberal National Party of 16.8 per cent.

Labor needs a universal swing just over 12 per cent to snatch back government.

The polls close in just under an hour.

Labor currently holds just nine of the 89 seats in parliament after the 2012 thrashing.

Former Labor premier Peter Beattie told the Nine election panel if the exit polls translate across the state, it would be a "boilover result" for Labor led by Annastacia Palaszczuk.

"These figures are extraordinary but I want to see the real thing," Mr Beattie said.

I thought Annastacia had blown it, but perhaps not.

at one stage exit polls predicted Rudd would win the last election. Exit polls are wrong half the time because they are essentially rubbish but even rubbish can be right about half the time - by accident.

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MOTR Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 6646	Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government. Reply #16 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:04pm The ABC coverage has them at 32 a piece with just over 5% counted.
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sir prince duke alevine

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Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government.
Reply #17 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:05pm

MOTR wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:02pm:

sir prince duke alevine wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 6:58pm:

12% swing in Ashgrove. Party away QLD, Newman is toast.

Will make the night enjoyable whatever the outcome.

It looks like it might hinge on the big booths from the North.

with 42% primary I think Libs may still hold government, But NOT with Newman Grin

Hopefully Tony is watching.

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MOTR

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Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government.
Reply #18 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:07pm

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:04pm:

MOTR wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 6:10pm:

Quote:

An exit poll is showing Queensland's LNP government led by Campbell Newman is in real trouble.

Nine's Galaxy exit poll of 17 electorates is showing a swing against the Liberal National Party of 16.8 per cent.

Labor needs a universal swing just over 12 per cent to snatch back government.

The polls close in just under an hour.

Labor currently holds just nine of the 89 seats in parliament after the 2012 thrashing.

Former Labor premier Peter Beattie told the Nine election panel if the exit polls translate across the state, it would be a "boilover result" for Labor led by Annastacia Palaszczuk.

"These figures are extraordinary but I want to see the real thing," Mr Beattie said.

I thought Annastacia had blown it, but perhaps not.

at one stage exit polls predicted Rudd would win the last election. Exit polls are wrong half the time because they are essentially rubbish but even rubbish can be right about half the time - by accident.

It sounds like there was too much of a metropolitan bias in these exit polls. Although they were right about Newman and the LNP being in danger.

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Hunt says Coalition accepts IPCC findings

"What does this mean? It means that we need to do practical things that actually reduce emissions."

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St George of the Garden Gold Member Offline http://tinyurl.com/n 3o8m2x Posts: 9809 Gender:	Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government. Reply #19 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:08pm Quote: 7.05pm. Cairns and Kallangur called for Labor, and so apparently are Gladstone and Mackay, which might otherwise have gone independent.
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sir prince duke alevine

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Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government.
Reply #20 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:10pm

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:04pm:

MOTR wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 6:10pm:

Quote:

An exit poll is showing Queensland's LNP government led by Campbell Newman is in real trouble.

Nine's Galaxy exit poll of 17 electorates is showing a swing against the Liberal National Party of 16.8 per cent.

Labor needs a universal swing just over 12 per cent to snatch back government.

The polls close in just under an hour.

Labor currently holds just nine of the 89 seats in parliament after the 2012 thrashing.

Former Labor premier Peter Beattie told the Nine election panel if the exit polls translate across the state, it would be a "boilover result" for Labor led by Annastacia Palaszczuk.

"These figures are extraordinary but I want to see the real thing," Mr Beattie said.

I thought Annastacia had blown it, but perhaps not.

at one stage exit polls predicted Rudd would win the last election. Exit polls are wrong half the time because they are essentially rubbish but even rubbish can be right about half the time - by accident.

Which poll predicted a Rudd victory? Was this another failed bible prophecy?

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Disclaimer for Mothra per POST so it is forever acknowledged: Saying 'Islam' or 'Muslims' doesn't mean ALL muslims. This does not target individual muslims who's opinion I am not aware of.

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MOTR Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 6646	Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government. Reply #21 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:11pm St George of the Garden wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:08pm: Quote: 7.05pm. Cairns and Kallangur called for Labor, and so apparently are Gladstone and Mackay, which might otherwise have gone independent. That gives Labor a sniff. 37 a piece with 10% counted.
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St George of the Garden Gold Member Offline http://tinyurl.com/n 3o8m2x Posts: 9809 Gender:	Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government. Reply #22 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:13pm Quote: 7.12pm. More good news for Labor: Wayne Swan talking up Pine Rivers, Labor ahead in Burleigh, a few obvious gains like Yeerongpilly, Greenslopes (though somewhat modest swing there), Ipswich.
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Bam Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21905 Gender:	Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government. Reply #23 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:16pm Antony Green has just stated that he cannot pick the winner of the election at this stage of the count (75 minutes after the close of polls). (Edit: Green has also stated that this isn't usual.) ABC computer has LNP 36, ALP 43, Others 3, in doubt 7. LNP are officially in trouble.
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MOTR Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 6646	Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government. Reply #24 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:17pm What are the undecided seats at this stage?
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longweekend58

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Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government.
Reply #25 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:19pm

MOTR wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:07pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:04pm:

MOTR wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 6:10pm:

Quote:

An exit poll is showing Queensland's LNP government led by Campbell Newman is in real trouble.

Nine's Galaxy exit poll of 17 electorates is showing a swing against the Liberal National Party of 16.8 per cent.

Labor needs a universal swing just over 12 per cent to snatch back government.

The polls close in just under an hour.

Labor currently holds just nine of the 89 seats in parliament after the 2012 thrashing.

Former Labor premier Peter Beattie told the Nine election panel if the exit polls translate across the state, it would be a "boilover result" for Labor led by Annastacia Palaszczuk.

"These figures are extraordinary but I want to see the real thing," Mr Beattie said.

I thought Annastacia had blown it, but perhaps not.

at one stage exit polls predicted Rudd would win the last election. Exit polls are wrong half the time because they are essentially rubbish but even rubbish can be right about half the time - by accident.

It sounds like there was too much of a metropolitan bias in these exit polls. Although they were right about Newman and the LNP being in danger.

you needed an exit poll to tell you that????

exit polls are intrinsically hopeless. Self-select, hopelessly biased and invariably wrong. Even when the get the winner right, they miss the margin by buckets.

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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St George of the Garden Gold Member Offline http://tinyurl.com/n 3o8m2x Posts: 9809 Gender:	Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government. Reply #26 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:19pm Sir Prince Duke Phil the Greek! Abbott wants ALP state govts, I told you!
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Its time Gold Member Offline Boot libs out Posts: 25639 Gender:	Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government. Reply #27 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:19pm Tony must be thinking Farkkkk, they will boot me before NSW election .
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longweekend58 Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 45675 Gender:	Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government. Reply #28 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:19pm MOTR wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:17pm: What are the undecided seats at this stage? almost all of them.
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Aussie Gold Member Online OzPolitic Posts: 38572 Gender:	Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government. Reply #29 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:20pm longweekend58 wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:19pm: MOTR wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:17pm: What are the undecided seats at this stage? almost all of them. Rubbish.......again.
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Poll
Question: how many years take for labor to balance the budget?
* This poll has now closed *
1 year 4 (36.4%) 2 years 2 (18.2%) 3 years 3 (27.3%) Never 2 (18.2%) Total votes: 11 « Created by: President Elect, The Mechanic on: Jan 31^st, 2015 at 9:18pm »