Australian Politics Forum - Exit polls dire for LNP Government.

Karnal

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Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government.
Reply #30 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:21pm

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:04pm:

MOTR wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 6:10pm:

Quote:

An exit poll is showing Queensland's LNP government led by Campbell Newman is in real trouble.

Nine's Galaxy exit poll of 17 electorates is showing a swing against the Liberal National Party of 16.8 per cent.

Labor needs a universal swing just over 12 per cent to snatch back government.

The polls close in just under an hour.

Labor currently holds just nine of the 89 seats in parliament after the 2012 thrashing.

Former Labor premier Peter Beattie told the Nine election panel if the exit polls translate across the state, it would be a "boilover result" for Labor led by Annastacia Palaszczuk.

"These figures are extraordinary but I want to see the real thing," Mr Beattie said.

I thought Annastacia had blown it, but perhaps not.

at one stage exit polls predicted Rudd would win the last election. Exit polls are wrong half the time because they are essentially rubbish but even rubbish can be right about half the time - by accident.

Longy, thank God you’re back. We’ve all been waiting with baited breath for your unbiased mathematical analysis.

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greggerypeccary Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 136837 Gender:	Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government. Reply #31 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:22pm longweekend58 wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:19pm: MOTR wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:17pm: What are the undecided seats at this stage? almost all of them. WTF? 8 seats, as I see it.
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Karnal

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Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government.
Reply #32 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:24pm

sir prince duke alevine wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:10pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:04pm:

MOTR wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 6:10pm:

Quote:

An exit poll is showing Queensland's LNP government led by Campbell Newman is in real trouble.

Nine's Galaxy exit poll of 17 electorates is showing a swing against the Liberal National Party of 16.8 per cent.

Labor needs a universal swing just over 12 per cent to snatch back government.

The polls close in just under an hour.

Labor currently holds just nine of the 89 seats in parliament after the 2012 thrashing.

Former Labor premier Peter Beattie told the Nine election panel if the exit polls translate across the state, it would be a "boilover result" for Labor led by Annastacia Palaszczuk.

"These figures are extraordinary but I want to see the real thing," Mr Beattie said.

I thought Annastacia had blown it, but perhaps not.

at one stage exit polls predicted Rudd would win the last election. Exit polls are wrong half the time because they are essentially rubbish but even rubbish can be right about half the time - by accident.

Which poll predicted a Rudd victory? Was this another failed bible prophecy?

Longy has an extraordinary ability to remember numbers.

You know, like Rain Man.

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MOTR

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Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government.
Reply #33 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:24pm

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:19pm:

MOTR wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:07pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:04pm:

MOTR wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 6:10pm:

Quote:

An exit poll is showing Queensland's LNP government led by Campbell Newman is in real trouble.

Nine's Galaxy exit poll of 17 electorates is showing a swing against the Liberal National Party of 16.8 per cent.

Labor needs a universal swing just over 12 per cent to snatch back government.

The polls close in just under an hour.

Labor currently holds just nine of the 89 seats in parliament after the 2012 thrashing.

Former Labor premier Peter Beattie told the Nine election panel if the exit polls translate across the state, it would be a "boilover result" for Labor led by Annastacia Palaszczuk.

"These figures are extraordinary but I want to see the real thing," Mr Beattie said.

I thought Annastacia had blown it, but perhaps not.

at one stage exit polls predicted Rudd would win the last election. Exit polls are wrong half the time because they are essentially rubbish but even rubbish can be right about half the time - by accident.

It sounds like there was too much of a metropolitan bias in these exit polls. Although they were right about Newman and the LNP being in danger.

you needed an exit poll to tell you that????

exit polls are intrinsically hopeless. Self-select, hopelessly biased and invariably wrong. Even when the get the winner right, they miss the margin by buckets.

They are not at all accurate, but they indicated a much bigger swing than expected at some booths. They put the LNP in real danger, whereas before we were thinking a fairly straight forward LNP victory minus Newmam. Anyway the real votes are coming in now, and it's going to be line ball.

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Hunt says Coalition accepts IPCC findings

"What does this mean? It means that we need to do practical things that actually reduce emissions."

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St George of the Garden

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Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government.
Reply #34 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:25pm

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7.23pm. Just stepped out for an ABC News Radio appearance, come back and see the ABC computer is now projecting 42 seats for Labor, which is certainly minority government territory. Wayne Swan talking up Murrumba big time, so clearly a huge swing in that outer northern Brisbane sweet spot where so many seats stand to be won and lost.

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polite_gandalf Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 20027 Canberra Gender:	Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government. Reply #35 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:26pm simply stunning results. As Antony Green said - to not be able to call the result at this stage - after what happened last election - is just extraordinary. Very real possibility now of a hung parliament. I can't help thinking this result will be terminal for Abbott.
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MOTR

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Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government.
Reply #36 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:26pm

St George of the Garden wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:25pm:

Quote:

7.23pm. Just stepped out for an ABC News Radio appearance, come back and see the ABC computer is now projecting 42 seats for Labor, which is certainly minority government territory. Wayne Swan talking up Murrumba big time, so clearly a huge swing in that outer northern Brisbane sweet spot where so many seats stand to be won and lost.

It was 43 at one stage, so one more seat has been brought back into undecided territory.

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Hunt says Coalition accepts IPCC findings

"What does this mean? It means that we need to do practical things that actually reduce emissions."

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greggerypeccary

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Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government.
Reply #37 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:27pm

polite_gandalf wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:26pm:

simply stunning results. As Antony Green said - to not be able to call the result at this stage - after what happened last election - is just extraordinary.

Very real possibility now of a hung parliament.

I can't help thinking this result will be terminal for Abbott.

It's a glorious day.

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MOTR Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 6646	Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government. Reply #38 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:27pm greggerypeccary wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:22pm: longweekend58 wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:19pm: MOTR wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:17pm: What are the undecided seats at this stage? almost all of them. WTF? 8 seats, as I see it. Do you know which seats?
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St George of the Garden Gold Member Offline http://tinyurl.com/n 3o8m2x Posts: 9809 Gender:	Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government. Reply #39 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:29pm Quote: 7.25pm. Labor looks like winning Barron River, but LNP predicted to retain Mundingburra, so a mixed picture up north.
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Bam

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Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government.
Reply #40 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:29pm

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:19pm:

exit polls are intrinsically hopeless. Self-select, hopelessly biased and invariably wrong. Even when the get the winner right, they miss the margin by buckets.

I don't place much credence in exit polls either, mainly because they have a usefulness that is measured in hours before they go stale. The results are what we need to look at, not stale exit polls.

Having said that, the exit polls seem to be matching the election results (with usual MoE variance).

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greggerypeccary

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Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government.
Reply #41 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:31pm

MOTR wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:26pm:

St George of the Garden wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:25pm:

Quote:

7.23pm. Just stepped out for an ABC News Radio appearance, come back and see the ABC computer is now projecting 42 seats for Labor, which is certainly minority government territory. Wayne Swan talking up Murrumba big time, so clearly a huge swing in that outer northern Brisbane sweet spot where so many seats stand to be won and lost.

It was 43 at one stage, so one more seat has been brought back into undecided territory.

Slipped back to 41 now.

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St George of the Garden

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Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government.
Reply #42 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:33pm

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7.28pm. Predictable Labor gains: Ashgrove, Brisbane Central, Bulimba, Cairns, Capalaba, Cook, Greenslopes, Ipswich, Ipswich West, Keppel, Logan, Lytton, Morayfield, Nudgee, Sandgate, Townsville, Waterford, Yeerongpilly. Less predictable: Barron River, Algester, Bundaberg, Kallangur, Mirani, Murrumba, Pine Rivers, Redlands, Stretton, Tooowoomba North.

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ImSpartacus2 Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 6913	Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government. Reply #43 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:34pm Newman gone. Sooooooooooooooooo sweeeeeeetttttttt. And this is as much a disaster for Abbott and his extreme right wing policies. Antony Green just said labor is closer to winning this election then the LNP.
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ImSpartacus2 Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 6913	Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government. Reply #44 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:34pm Newman gone. Sooooooooooooooooo sweeeeeeetttttttt. And this is as much a disaster for Abbott and his extreme right wing policies. Antony Green just said labor is closer to winning this election then the LNP.
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Poll
Question: how many years take for labor to balance the budget?
* This poll has now closed *
1 year 4 (36.4%) 2 years 2 (18.2%) 3 years 3 (27.3%) Never 2 (18.2%) Total votes: 11 « Created by: President Elect, The Mechanic on: Jan 31^st, 2015 at 9:18pm »