Australian Politics Forum - Exit polls dire for LNP Government.

MOTR

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Exit polls dire for LNP Government.
Jan 31^st, 2015 at 6:10pm

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An exit poll is showing Queensland's LNP government led by Campbell Newman is in real trouble.

Nine's Galaxy exit poll of 17 electorates is showing a swing against the Liberal National Party of 16.8 per cent.

Labor needs a universal swing just over 12 per cent to snatch back government.

The polls close in just under an hour.

Labor currently holds just nine of the 89 seats in parliament after the 2012 thrashing.

Former Labor premier Peter Beattie told the Nine election panel if the exit polls translate across the state, it would be a "boilover result" for Labor led by Annastacia Palaszczuk.

"These figures are extraordinary but I want to see the real thing," Mr Beattie said.

I thought Annastacia had blown it, but perhaps not.

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polite_gandalf Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 20027 Canberra Gender:	Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government. Reply #1 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 6:12pm oh... another thread. Anyway, like I said in the other thread - exit polls are usually rubbish. Hoping this one isn't though
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MOTR Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 6646	Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government. Reply #2 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 6:17pm polite_gandalf wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 6:12pm: oh... another thread. Anyway, like I said in the other thread - exit polls are usually rubbish. Hoping this one isn't though The margin gives some hope.
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MOTR

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Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government.
Reply #3 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 6:29pm

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Channel 7 have got a ReachTEL exit poll for Ashgrove which shows Labor’s Kate Jones has widened her lead over premier Campbell Newman, who is looking more and more likely to lose his seat.

The poll has Labor on 56% two party preferred to LNP’s 44%.

On primaries, Jones is on 47.7% in Ashgrove and Newman is on 40.8%.

The poll surveyed 991 voters after they voted.

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Hunt says Coalition accepts IPCC findings

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MOTR

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Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government.
Reply #4 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 6:39pm

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Education Minister John-Paul Langbroek was realistic about the early exit poll figures.

"I'm not going to gild the lily, if these numbers for this exit poll, and it is very early, are correct then Annastacia Palaszczuk will be the premier," he said.

"It's just that clear cut.

"It's like a complete reversal of the swing that happened in 2012 but even larger."

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Hunt says Coalition accepts IPCC findings

"What does this mean? It means that we need to do practical things that actually reduce emissions."

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St George of the Garden Gold Member Offline http://tinyurl.com/n 3o8m2x Posts: 9809 Gender:	Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government. Reply #5 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 6:40pm Quote: 6.35.“All over the shop outside of urban areas”, says Possum, who has his act together sooner than I do. “Big indie, KAP and PUP votes in some places, smashing the LNP primary”. http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/01/31/queensland-election-live-3/
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MOTR Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 6646	Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government. Reply #6 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 6:41pm St George of the Garden wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 6:40pm: Quote: 6.35.“All over the shop outside of urban areas”, says Possum, who has his act together sooner than I do. “Big indie, KAP and PUP votes in some places, smashing the LNP primary”. Where's that coming from, George? Thanks.
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St George of the Garden Gold Member Offline http://tinyurl.com/n 3o8m2x Posts: 9809 Gender:	Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government. Reply #7 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 6:44pm Pollbludger—corrected my post. Mirani 12.2% swing on early figures.
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MOTR Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 6646	Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government. Reply #8 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 6:46pm St George of the Garden wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 6:44pm: Pollbludger—corrected my post. Mirani 12.2% swing on early figures. Will be a very interesting night. Thankfully, it looks very much like Newman's fate will be decided early, so we should be able to enjoy the night.
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sir prince duke alevine Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 23619 Gender:	Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government. Reply #9 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 6:54pm we can definitely expect more leadership speculation if QLD actually falls to the ALP. Farken hell! They are about to elect a government with a leader who not only didn't know the GST rate, but thought it was a variable rate!!! This is hilarious - just goes to show how much the LNP has stuffed up.
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MOTR Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 6646	Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government. Reply #10 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 6:54pm St George of the Garden wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 6:44pm: Pollbludger—corrected my post. Mirani 12.2% swing on early figures. ABC has the ALP ahead in Mirani.
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sir prince duke alevine Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 23619 Gender:	Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government. Reply #11 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 6:58pm 12% swing in Ashgrove. Party away QLD, Newman is toast.
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St George of the Garden

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Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government.
Reply #12 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:01pm

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6.55pm. Antony says we’re not yet setting huge swings in northern Queensland, but we don’t have anything yet from the Cairns and Townsville seats, and there is a big swing in Mirani.

6.54pm. ABC computer now calling Mirani for Labor, which is very good news for them. Everton looks like it will be close, which would be consistent with an overall tight result. Labor bolting home in Stafford, which is also good news for them.

6.52pm. First booth from Bulimba has a modest but sufficient swing to Labor. This seat swung relatively mildly in 2012, so it stands to reason the swing this time might be below par as well. Labor on track to win Nudgee – no surprise there.

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MOTR Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 6646	Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government. Reply #13 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:02pm sir prince duke alevine wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 6:58pm: 12% swing in Ashgrove. Party away QLD, Newman is toast. Will make the night enjoyable whatever the outcome. It looks like it might hinge on the big booths from the North.
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St George of the Garden

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Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government.
Reply #14 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:03pm

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7.01pm. Huge swing in Toowoomba South – not winnable for Labor, but presumably stands them in good stead for Toowoomba North.

7.00pm. Labor ahead in Bundaberg, which is great news for them. Close in Pine Rivers, with big 13% LNP margin.

6.58pm. Newman gone in Ashgrove, if what I just caught on the screen is any guide. More calls from the ABC computer: Labor to gain Ipswich West, Lytton, Capalaba, Stafford as well as the aforementioned Mirani. Shane Knuth to hold Dalrymple for the KAP.

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Poll
Question: how many years take for labor to balance the budget?
* This poll has now closed *
1 year 4 (36.4%) 2 years 2 (18.2%) 3 years 3 (27.3%) Never 2 (18.2%) Total votes: 11 « Created by: President Elect, The Mechanic on: Jan 31^st, 2015 at 9:18pm »