Australian Politics Forum - Exit polls dire for LNP Government.

polite_gandalf Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 20027 Canberra Gender:	Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government. Reply #75 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:54pm statewide swing of 13% - which puts them just on track to possibly form government.
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Bam Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21905 Gender:	Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government. Reply #76 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:54pm polite_gandalf wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:52pm: Interesting to note that the LNP primary vote remains above labor's. Labor succeeding by former PUP voters returning to them and also a surprisingly solid greens vote. There were no former PUP voters; this is PUP's first Queensland state election.
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The Mole Gold Member Offline http://www.ozpolitic .co/album/forum-atta chments/y Posts: 1499 Gender:	Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government. Reply #77 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:54pm Just heard someone on Sky ( yes I know) said they may have a hung parliament. wt...
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greggerypeccary Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 139872 Gender:	Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government. Reply #78 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:55pm Antony Green is predicting 46 seats to ALP.
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polite_gandalf

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Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government.
Reply #79 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:55pm

Bam wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:54pm:

polite_gandalf wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:52pm:

Interesting to note that the LNP primary vote remains above labor's. Labor succeeding by former PUP voters returning to them and also a surprisingly solid greens vote.

There were no former PUP voters; this is PUP's first Queensland state election.

Oh... good point Cheesy

I think its actually KAP getting a bit of a hiding

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A resident Islam critic who claims to represent western values said:
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Outlawing the enemy's uniform - hijab, islamic beard - is not depriving one's own people of their freedoms.

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St George of the Garden Gold Member Offline http://tinyurl.com/n 3o8m2x Posts: 9809 Gender:	Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government. Reply #80 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:57pm Quote: 7.54pm. Antony says 46 the most likely result. Need I remind you, 45 is a majority. But, of course, he advises caution. 7.52pm. I’d neglected to mention Maryborough. Chris Foley falling short, producing a Labor versus LNP contest in which Labor has its nose in front. Hoo boy!
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MOTR Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 6646	Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government. Reply #81 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:58pm LNP pundits now predicting a Labor victory. Best case scenario for LNP is minority government.
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greggerypeccary Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 139872 Gender:	Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government. Reply #82 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 8:00pm MOTR wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:58pm: LNP pundits now predicting a Labor victory. Best case scenario for LNP is minority government. And Corrupt Campbell without a seat.
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St George of the Garden Gold Member Offline http://tinyurl.com/n 3o8m2x Posts: 9809 Gender:	Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government. Reply #83 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 8:04pm 41:36 seats.
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Karnal

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Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government.
Reply #84 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 8:05pm

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:19pm:

MOTR wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:07pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:04pm:

MOTR wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 6:10pm:

Quote:

An exit poll is showing Queensland's LNP government led by Campbell Newman is in real trouble.

Nine's Galaxy exit poll of 17 electorates is showing a swing against the Liberal National Party of 16.8 per cent.

Labor needs a universal swing just over 12 per cent to snatch back government.

The polls close in just under an hour.

Labor currently holds just nine of the 89 seats in parliament after the 2012 thrashing.

Former Labor premier Peter Beattie told the Nine election panel if the exit polls translate across the state, it would be a "boilover result" for Labor led by Annastacia Palaszczuk.

"These figures are extraordinary but I want to see the real thing," Mr Beattie said.

I thought Annastacia had blown it, but perhaps not.

at one stage exit polls predicted Rudd would win the last election. Exit polls are wrong half the time because they are essentially rubbish but even rubbish can be right about half the time - by accident.

It sounds like there was too much of a metropolitan bias in these exit polls. Although they were right about Newman and the LNP being in danger.

you needed an exit poll to tell you that????

exit polls are intrinsically hopeless. Self-select, hopelessly biased and invariably wrong. Even when the get the winner right, they miss the margin by buckets.

Hopelessly biased eh, Longy?

Who are you tipping to win the erection?

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Karnal Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 96720	Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government. Reply #85 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 8:06pm The Mole wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:54pm: Just heard someone on Sky ( yes I know) said they may have a hung parliament. wt... They’re biased.
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St George of the Garden Gold Member Offline http://tinyurl.com/n 3o8m2x Posts: 9809 Gender:	Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government. Reply #86 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 8:09pm Katter 9.9% swing against it. (ABC)
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St George of the Garden

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Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government.
Reply #87 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 8:11pm

Quote:

8.05pm. The ABC computer is now calling Mundingburra for Labor, so I’ve now got Labor to 45. Not that late count reversals are unheard of, but there’s another four seats that are lineball – Albert, Mansfield, Maryborough, Mount Ommaney and Whitsunday. Plus Redlands, where the LNP is ahead but not home and hosed.

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MOTR Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 6646	Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government. Reply #88 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 8:13pm Tightening up again on the computer. Yet all the pundits are talking Labor victory.
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ImSpartacus2 Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 6913	Re: Exit polls dire for LNP Government. Reply #89 - Jan 31^st, 2015 at 8:19pm .....
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Poll
Question: how many years take for labor to balance the budget?
* This poll has now closed *
1 year 4 (36.4%) 2 years 2 (18.2%) 3 years 3 (27.3%) Never 2 (18.2%) Total votes: 11 « Created by: President Elect, The Mechanic on: Jan 31^st, 2015 at 9:18pm »