Australian Politics Forum - Liberal backbencher speaks out against Abbott

Bam

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Re: Liberal backbencher speaks out against Abbott
Reply #30 - Feb 4^th, 2015 at 11:14am

polite_gandalf wrote on Feb 4^th, 2015 at 9:15am:

Bam wrote on Feb 4^th, 2015 at 8:06am:

5
days to go.

I'm not so sure. There has been something of a rallying behind Abbott since the Jenson/Entch/Brough storm, and there is a clear division between Jenson's (still small) group of rebel backbenchers and the senior ministerial ranks who have held firm behind Abbott. While I don't think there are really many lib MPs who actually want Tony to stay, I think there is a definite case of "I don't want to be the first to jump". I reckon this may well need more time to fester before it reaches the required critical mass for an overthrow.

I'm making a guess on the timeframe. I could be wrong, but who knows?

Things would come to a head pretty quickly if the next opinion poll is dire. I think the first Newspoll of the year is due out next Monday night. If that has something like 45-55 or worse for the Coalition, the backbenchers in marginal seats will not remain quiet.

Backbenchers in marginal seats have nothing to lose by forcing some kind of vote. Their portfolios? They have none. Their jobs? Their jobs are very unsafe if the Liberals are looking at 10% to 12% swings. If they don't act, the next election would be a bloodbath.

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Bam Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21905 Gender:	Re: Liberal backbencher speaks out against Abbott Reply #31 - Feb 4^th, 2015 at 11:19am The question that the backbenchers would need to ask: Which is likely to do more damage to the Liberal Party - keeping a failing Prime Minister or replacing him?
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polite_gandalf

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Re: Liberal backbencher speaks out against Abbott
Reply #32 - Feb 4^th, 2015 at 11:50am

backbencher revolt is all well and good, but it comes to naught if no willing candidate turns up. Factors that may complicate things for the front bench:

- what happens to Joe Hockey - he would presumably have to be ditched as well
- Sooner or later they have to choose between Bishop or Turnbull (Morrison seems to be out of the race now) - will Bishop supporters unite behind Turnbull and vice-versa?
- the budget: people are forgetting already that the demise of the liberals is not fundamentally an issue of personality, its a dud of a budget. Will the new leader be prepared to ditch it? How will that go down with the ideologues in the party?

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rabbitoh08

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Re: Liberal backbencher speaks out against Abbott
Reply #33 - Feb 4^th, 2015 at 12:02pm

polite_gandalf wrote on Feb 4^th, 2015 at 11:50am:

backbencher revolt is all well and good, but it comes to naught if no willing candidate turns up. Factors that may complicate things for the front bench:

- what happens to Joe Hockey - he would presumably have to be ditched as well
- Sooner or later they have to choose between Bishop or Turnbull (Morrison seems to be out of the race now) - will Bishop supporters unite behind Turnbull and vice-versa?
- the budget: people are forgetting already that the demise of the liberals is not fundamentally an issue of personality, its a dud of a budget. Will the new leader be prepared to ditch it? How will that go down with the ideologues in the party?

If they were smart - Bishop and turnbull would form a united ticket - maybe Bishop as leader with Turnbull deputy, so the Teaparty crowd don't get too frightened.

If Tony doesn't resign - Brough will call the spill, and B&T step in to fill the gap. All nice and tidy.

Abbott and Hockey will go to the back bench - and then they will all pray that neither of them turns Rudd-like

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Doctor Jolly

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Re: Liberal backbencher speaks out against Abbott
Reply #34 - Feb 4^th, 2015 at 12:04pm

polite_gandalf wrote on Feb 4^th, 2015 at 11:50am:

backbencher revolt is all well and good, but it comes to naught if no willing candidate turns up. Factors that may complicate things for the front bench:

- what happens to Joe Hockey - he would presumably have to be ditched as well
- Sooner or later they have to choose between Bishop or Turnbull (Morrison seems to be out of the race now) - will Bishop supporters unite behind Turnbull and vice-versa?
- the budget: people are forgetting already that the demise of the liberals is not fundamentally an issue of personality, its a dud of a budget. Will the new leader be prepared to ditch it? How will that go down with the ideologues in the party?

Turnbull is the obvious out here. He is not driven by the right wing ideologue, and would provide a pragmatic approach.

It is however, doubtful if there are enough non-ideologues in the party to vote him in. ideologues do not use common sense, so will not vote for him.

Bishop will be his deputy, and they will find some muppet to be treasurer.

If Bishop becomes PM, and Hockey remains treasurer, it will be a complete mess.

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polite_gandalf

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Re: Liberal backbencher speaks out against Abbott
Reply #35 - Feb 4^th, 2015 at 12:15pm

and then what for Hockey? Seethe in the background - he's still far too young to give up on his obvious leadership ambitions.

I hope a spill is called but no one turns up, or a challenge is mounted but Abbott narrowly wins. Then we'd *REALLY* see the libs tear themselves apart.

Lets face it, every moment Abbott remains is pure gold for labor. Those polls aint gonna improve under him. It is literally impossible to see liberal infighting magically disappearing while ever Abbott remains.

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A resident Islam critic who claims to represent western values said:
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skippy.

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Re: Liberal backbencher speaks out against Abbott
Reply #36 - Feb 4^th, 2015 at 1:21pm

Doctor Jolly wrote on Feb 4^th, 2015 at 10:43am:

Dnarever wrote on Feb 4^th, 2015 at 9:19am:

President Elect, The Mechanic wrote on Feb 4^th, 2015 at 6:37am:

Doctor Jolly wrote on Feb 4^th, 2015 at 6:31am:

Finally the backbench grow a spine.

Eveeyone warned them that abbott was an idiot. Bit they choose to ignore it in there Wiest for power.

bullshit...

they have no spine..

they need to be horsewhipped for disloyalty and for giving in to the media driven feeding frenzy..

and that's why I would never vote for Bill Shorten...

he destabilised the Labor government and stabbed his leaders in the back to feed his own ambition..

an absolute filthy grub who only deserves the contempt of every Australian..

Yes it isn't that they grew a spine - this is all about the risk of them losing their jobs, it is purely driven by self interest, they see all the Abbott lies and errors as being a nail in their personal bank accounts.

The real horror for them is that Abbotts performance could cost many on the back bench their free lunches.

Someone once said..

When in doubt, back self-interest.

This is the great feedback mechanism that the public can force change on a government, through polls and state elections which show to pollies that they will lose there jobs if they continue. Contrary to Mr Abbott you dont need an election for a reshuffle, and reinvention.

Yes and that's exactly what Hockey and other front benchers are doing. Hockey knows if Abbott's dumped so is he.
I hope they don't dump him now the longer it goes the worse it will get until they are annihilated. This will split the party for years. Grin

I see Abbott, Hockey, Morriscum and that German dick all on the back bench after the spill.

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Ex Dame Pansi Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 24168	Re: Liberal backbencher speaks out against Abbott Reply #37 - Feb 4^th, 2015 at 1:31pm I don't want Abbott to get dumped, it would be far more pleasurable to see him annihilated at the election, fair and square, just like Newman.
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Bam Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21905 Gender:	Re: Liberal backbencher speaks out against Abbott Reply #38 - Feb 4^th, 2015 at 1:55pm Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Feb 4^th, 2015 at 1:31pm: I don't want Abbott to get dumped, it would be far more pleasurable to see him annihilated at the election, fair and square, just like Newman. The country can't afford to have Abbott asleep at the wheel for two years.
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greggerypeccary

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Re: Liberal backbencher speaks out against Abbott
Reply #39 - Feb 4^th, 2015 at 1:57pm

Bam wrote on Feb 4^th, 2015 at 1:55pm:

Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Feb 4^th, 2015 at 1:31pm:

I don't want Abbott to get dumped, it would be far more pleasurable to see him annihilated at the election, fair and square, just like Newman.

The country can't afford to have Abbott asleep at the wheel for two years.

Yes, that's the problem.

I'd love to see him ousted at a federal election, however, if he's allowed to stay on there's no telling what damage he'll do.

He needs to go.

Not long now.

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Redmond Neck

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Re: Liberal backbencher speaks out against Abbott
Reply #40 - Feb 4^th, 2015 at 2:07pm

I think this may pan out a bit like Keating - Hawke.

Maybe a spill next Tuesday to clear the air.
1. No takers then a sort of vote of confidence for Abbott.
2. Turnbull and Bishop run against him and are defeated.

This buys him a bit of time but he is damaged goods.

Fester

Fester

Fester

A few months later a new challenge and Abbott booted out by Turnbull, Bishop is deputy.

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John Smith Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 75295 Gender:	Re: Liberal backbencher speaks out against Abbott Reply #41 - Feb 4^th, 2015 at 2:16pm loving it
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ImSpartacus2

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Re: Liberal backbencher speaks out against Abbott
Reply #42 - Feb 4^th, 2015 at 2:42pm

Bam wrote on Feb 4^th, 2015 at 11:14am:

polite_gandalf wrote on Feb 4^th, 2015 at 9:15am:

Bam wrote on Feb 4^th, 2015 at 8:06am:

5
days to go.

I'm not so sure. There has been something of a rallying behind Abbott since the Jenson/Entch/Brough storm, and there is a clear division between Jenson's (still small) group of rebel backbenchers and the senior ministerial ranks who have held firm behind Abbott. While I don't think there are really many lib MPs who actually want Tony to stay, I think there is a definite case of "I don't want to be the first to jump". I reckon this may well need more time to fester before it reaches the required critical mass for an overthrow.

I'm making a guess on the timeframe. I could be wrong, but who knows?

Things would come to a head pretty quickly if the next opinion poll is dire. I think the first Newspoll of the year is due out next Monday night. If that has something like 45-55 or worse for the Coalition, the backbenchers in marginal seats will not remain quiet.

Backbenchers in marginal seats have nothing to lose by forcing some kind of vote. Their portfolios? They have none. Their jobs? Their jobs are very unsafe if the Liberals are looking at 10% to 12% swings. If they don't act, the next election would be a bloodbath.

One can only hope. Anyone got a handle on which LNP Ministers are on a margin of 7% or less? That pendulum must be available somewhere on the net

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Aussie

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Re: Liberal backbencher speaks out against Abbott
Reply #43 - Feb 4^th, 2015 at 3:32pm

Quote:

One can only hope. Anyone got a handle on which LNP Ministers are on a margin of 7% or less? That pendulum must be available somewhere on the net

Just two.

Peter Dutton. He is on a margin of 6.7% He is the Member for Dickson (Qld.) He is the Minister for Immigration and Border Protection.

Bruce Billson. He is on a margin of 5.6%. Member for Dunkley (Vi.) He is the Minister for Small Business.

BUT:

There are also 32 LNP back-benchers on a margin of less then 7%, including 9 from Queensland, 3 from WA, 5 from Victoria, 10 from New South Wales, 2 from Tasmania, 1 from South Australia and 1 from the Northern Territory. (Yeah, I know, I stuffed up the numbers by one, and I can't be arsed to find the error.)

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ImSpartacus2

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Re: Liberal backbencher speaks out against Abbott
Reply #44 - Feb 4^th, 2015 at 3:36pm

Aussie wrote on Feb 4^th, 2015 at 3:32pm:

Quote:

One can only hope. Anyone got a handle on which LNP Ministers are on a margin of 7% or less? That pendulum must be available somewhere on the net

Just two.

Peter Dutton. He is on a margin of 6.7% He is the Member for Dickson (Qld.) He is the Minister for Immigration and Border Protection.

Bruce Billson. He is on a margin of 5.6%. Member for Dunkley (Vi.) He is the Minister for Small Business.

Ohhh it would be sooo sweet to see the back of these 2

BUT:

There are also 32 LNP back-benchers on a margin of less then 7%, including 9 from Queensland, 3 from WA, 5 from Victoria, 10 from New South Wales, 2 from Tasmania, 1 from South Australia and 1 from the Northern Territory. (Yeah, I know, I stuffed up the numbers by one, and I can't be arsed to find the error.)

Thanks Aussie. That's what I was looking for but had some trouble finding. I owe you one

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