Australian Politics Forum - The magic bubble that never bursts

Svengali

Gold Member

Offline

Please don't thank me

Posts: 3474
Gender: male

The magic bubble that never bursts
Mar 21^st, 2015 at 2:23pm

Oz, the home of the magic pudding has invented the magic bubble which floats wondrously and never bursts. In happy go lucky land the denizens flip houses back and forward between each other and dine on the magic economic pudding.

However there are omens:

http://www.moneymorning.com.au/20150321/werent-meant-hear-stock-market-alarm-bel...

Quote:

The way Ray sees things, today’s economy is eerily similar to that of 1937. In case (like your editor) you’re too young to remember what happened back then, here’s a reminder: the Fed raised interest rates eight years after the 1929 financial crisis, after a period of ultra-low rates aimed at boosting the economy. Sound familiar?

An eight-year wait still ended up being too soon. In less than one year, the benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average [INDEXDJX:DJI] lost nearly half of its value. Ouch.

Ray urges the Fed to stay cautious about raising rates. To make his case, Ray offers six unnerving parallels between then and now (this list quotes Dalio’s note)…

Debt limits reached at Bubble Top, causing the economy and markets to peak (1929 & 2007)
Interest rates hit zero amid depression (1931 & 2008)
Money printing starts, kicking off a beautiful deleveraging (1933 & 2009)
The stock market and ‘risky assets’ rally (1933-1936 & 2009-2014)
The economy improves during a cyclical recovery (1933-1936 & 2009-2014)
6. The central bank tightens, resulting in a self-reinforcing downturn (1935 & 2015?)

Your editor admits the similarities are remarkable. And by all accounts, taking the other side of a Ray Dalio tip is a brave bet. No less an authority than Sam Sicilia, the chief investment officer of industry super fund Hostplus, views Ray as one of the smartest investors on the planet.

Back to top

We first fought the heathens in the name of religion, then Communism, and now in the name of drugs and terrorism. Our excuses for global domination always change.
Serj Tankian

IP Logged

SweetLambo Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 1271	Re: The magic bubble that never bursts Reply #1 - Mar 21^st, 2015 at 2:37pm Aren't these the same omens the leftards have been moaning about for about a decade now ? Yet nothing has changed Yawn.
Back to top	The quran was not written by allah unless allah has no knowledge of science and historical facts. No quran or prophet mohammed existed until 60 years after mohammed's death. IP Logged

longweekend58

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 45675
Gender: male

Re: The magic bubble that never bursts
Reply #2 - Mar 21^st, 2015 at 5:57pm

the usual boofheads with the usual omens of doom conveniently forgetting that 2015 is very different to 1937 and we have learned afew things since then.

Also... and this is a biggie... they love to quote USA experience and then try and make it apply to us when there is so little that is comparable, nevermind the 80 year time gap.

Back to top

AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

IP Logged

Svengali

Gold Member

Offline

Please don't thank me

Posts: 3474
Gender: male

Re: The magic bubble that never bursts
Reply #3 - Mar 21^st, 2015 at 11:14pm

longweekend58 wrote on Mar 21^st, 2015 at 5:57pm:

the usual boofheads with the usual omens of doom conveniently forgetting that 2015 is very different to 1937 and we have learned afew things since then.

Also... and this is a biggie... they love to quote USA experience and then try and make it apply to us when there is so little that is comparable, nevermind the 80 year time gap.

The key factor of very low interest rates is very similar indeed. So is the problem of government budget deficits.

Private debt seems to be much higher per capita in Australia than USA which portends a bigger negative effect from a recession.

Keep your North end buried in the sand while your South end is exposed to forces beyond your control. Its better you don't see whats coming.

Back to top

We first fought the heathens in the name of religion, then Communism, and now in the name of drugs and terrorism. Our excuses for global domination always change.
Serj Tankian

IP Logged

The_Barnacle

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 6205
Melbourne
Gender: male

Re: The magic bubble that never bursts
Reply #4 - Mar 22^nd, 2015 at 10:09am

SweetLambo wrote on Mar 21^st, 2015 at 2:37pm:

Aren't these the same omens the leftards have been moaning about for about a decade now ?

No this isn't a right wing left wing thing.
There are just some people who always believe that we are just about to have an economic crash. They have been predicting it ever since political forums started.

Its really just an economic version of the religious nutters who for the past 1000 years have been claiming we are in the "end times".

http://www.signs-of-end-times.com/

Back to top

The Right Wing only believe in free speech when they agree with what is being said.

IP Logged

Sir lastnail

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 30089
Gender: male

Re: The magic bubble that never bursts
Reply #5 - Mar 22^nd, 2015 at 10:36am

longweekend58 wrote on Mar 21^st, 2015 at 5:57pm:

the usual boofheads with the usual omens of doom conveniently forgetting that 2015 is very different to 1937 and we have learned afew things since then.

Also... and this is a biggie... they love to quote USA experience and then try and make it apply to us when there is so little that is comparable, nevermind the 80 year time gap.

Hey longloser, how are you going to pay this lot off by flipping houses ? Remnember debt is a bad thing according to Abort and co and you should try and pay it off as quickly as possible Wink

Back to top

debtclock_049.gif (28 KB | 48 )

In August 2021, Newcastle Coroner Karen Dilks recorded that Lisa Shaw had died “due to complications of an AstraZeneca COVID vaccination”.

IP Logged

Brendon

Senior Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 396

Re: The magic bubble that never bursts
Reply #6 - Mar 22^nd, 2015 at 11:03am

The_Barnacle wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2015 at 10:09am:

SweetLambo wrote on Mar 21^st, 2015 at 2:37pm:

Aren't these the same omens the leftards have been moaning about for about a decade now ?

No this isn't a right wing left wing thing.
There are just some people who always believe that we are just about to have an economic crash. They have been predicting it ever since political forums started.

Its really just an economic version of the religious nutters who for the past 1000 years have been claiming we are in the "end times".

http://www.signs-of-end-times.com/

There was economic collapse. The British empire went bust in that time and never recovered. Since 2007 America has lost a lot of it's influence. The American empire is on the way out. No-one is predicting total annihilation.

Back to top

IP Logged

Svengali

Gold Member

Offline

Please don't thank me

Posts: 3474
Gender: male

Re: The magic bubble that never bursts
Reply #7 - Mar 22^nd, 2015 at 2:40pm

Brendon wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2015 at 11:03am:

The_Barnacle wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2015 at 10:09am:

SweetLambo wrote on Mar 21^st, 2015 at 2:37pm:

Aren't these the same omens the leftards have been moaning about for about a decade now ?

No this isn't a right wing left wing thing.
There are just some people who always believe that we are just about to have an economic crash. They have been predicting it ever since political forums started.

Its really just an economic version of the religious nutters who for the past 1000 years have been claiming we are in the "end times".

http://www.signs-of-end-times.com/

There was economic collapse. The British empire went bust in that time and never recovered. Since 2007 America has lost a lot of it's influence. The American empire is on the way out. No-one is predicting total annihilation.

The British Empire has been degenerating since World War 1. They can't keep their sh*t together. Hence the continuous emigration of poms to Australia.

Currently GBP is about 30% as valuable in USD as it was in 1915. That represents a constant and continous decline.

Back to top

We first fought the heathens in the name of religion, then Communism, and now in the name of drugs and terrorism. Our excuses for global domination always change.
Serj Tankian

IP Logged