Australian Politics Forum - Newspoll Labor 53% to LNP 47% 18-5-15

Karnal Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 96720	Re: Newspoll Labor 53% to LNP 47% 18-5-15 Reply #30 - May 18^th, 2015 at 5:28pm Yes, Skipy, but he is.a grown-up, you have to admit that.
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Bam

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Re: Newspoll Labor 53% to LNP 47% 18-5-15
Reply #31 - May 18^th, 2015 at 5:45pm

polite_gandalf wrote on May 18^th, 2015 at 2:21pm:

longweekend58 wrote on May 18^th, 2015 at 2:16pm:

I am just enjoying you hypocrites picking and choosing results.

If you bothered taking any notice at all to Bam's posting history you'd know straight away that no one has pointed out the futility of taking out polls in isolation more than him.

Indeed ... all opinion polls are just random samples. Getting all worked up about a random sample is rather meaningless.

We've had five post-budget polls in the past week producing results of 47 (Coalition)-53 (ALP) (ReachTel), 48-52 (Galaxy), 47-53 (Newspoll), 50-50 (Fairfax-Ipsos) and 49-51 (Morgan). Essential is due to report tomorrow, and will probably come in at 48-52 or 49-51.

All we can deduce from this is that the Coalition may have improved their standing slightly. I doubt very much that the Coalition would be so foolhardy as to call an early election on the basis of one Ipsos poll. Unlike their fanbois, they look at ALL the polling, including private opinion polling that we don't usually get to see. The polling aggregate would say quite clearly that an early election would be unwise.

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John Smith Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 75273 Gender:	Re: Newspoll Labor 53% to LNP 47% 18-5-15 Reply #32 - May 18^th, 2015 at 5:53pm longweekend58 wrote on May 18^th, 2015 at 1:08pm: funny that you boofheads who live and breathe on Fairfax polls that show Abbott in the lead. the libs are rising in the polls and labor is dropping. still want an election? and he actually believes he's smarter than everyone else
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Grendel

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Re: Newspoll Labor 53% to LNP 47% 18-5-15
Reply #33 - May 18^th, 2015 at 7:01pm

polite_gandalf wrote on May 18^th, 2015 at 2:26pm:

Grendel wrote on May 18^th, 2015 at 2:18pm:

Polls deservedly get bad press.
The recent UK one's a prime example.
I'm guessing you are active on Twitter?

The recent UK one's are a bad example. I suspect the FPTP system makes polling a whole different kettle of fish. We know from history that UK polls are unreliable. Australia on the other hand has been remarkably reliable in predicting pretty much every election in living history (as for QLD, the polls actually predicted a hung parliament, but was wayward when using predictive preferences). And if the pollies know that these polls can be relied upon, then they shape their policies around them - which is exactly how democracy should be.

And I've never touched twitter.

Really? Well it's certainly made for people like you.
BTW All political polls fit the bill.
Only an election is a true poll, the rest are lucky dips, some are even purposely loaded to give a particular outcome so puhlease do stop with the polling crap and excuses for more biased comments eh.

I've already commented on the decline in our polity and idiots who do what you suggest are the bottom of the barrel as far as pollies go.

However CIR would be a more realistic way to gauge public reaction to policy and be much more meaningful and useful.

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longweekend58

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Re: Newspoll Labor 53% to LNP 47% 18-5-15
Reply #34 - May 18^th, 2015 at 11:39pm

Dsmithy70 wrote on May 18^th, 2015 at 4:49pm:

longweekend58 wrote on May 18^th, 2015 at 4:35pm:

Witness the outrage - the OUTRAGE - over a proposed $10 per year increase in the price of petrol or the 'massive' maxime co-payment of $70 per year.

I like talking politics with you, we have a long history some 10+ years now.

Whilst I become ever more cynical & bitter, you become more delusional as demonstrated by the above.

Did you miss the massive outrage at a small increase to prices that was in most cases over compensated for?

No you didn't miss it, in fact you were driving on of the buses to Canberra.

Now of course you'll say Gillard ruled out a carbon tax hence the outrage, yet I'm sure Tony promised no new taxes & no changes to Medicare.

But WHATEVER.

TEN DOLLARS

A YEAR

And this causes outrage?

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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longweekend58

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Re: Newspoll Labor 53% to LNP 47% 18-5-15
Reply #35 - May 18^th, 2015 at 11:42pm

Bam wrote on May 18^th, 2015 at 5:45pm:

polite_gandalf wrote on May 18^th, 2015 at 2:21pm:

longweekend58 wrote on May 18^th, 2015 at 2:16pm:

I am just enjoying you hypocrites picking and choosing results.

If you bothered taking any notice at all to Bam's posting history you'd know straight away that no one has pointed out the futility of taking out polls in isolation more than him.

Indeed ... all opinion polls are just random samples. Getting all worked up about a random sample is rather meaningless.

We've had five post-budget polls in the past week producing results of 47 (Coalition)-53 (ALP) (ReachTel), 48-52 (Galaxy), 47-53 (Newspoll), 50-50 (Fairfax-Ipsos) and 49-51 (Morgan). Essential is due to report tomorrow, and will probably come in at 48-52 or 49-51.

All we can deduce from this is that the Coalition may have improved their standing slightly. I doubt very much that the Coalition would be so foolhardy as to call an early election on the basis of one Ipsos poll. Unlike their fanbois, they look at ALL the polling, including private opinion polling that we don't usually get to see. The polling aggregate would say quite clearly that an early election would be unwise.

a conclusion that would be supported by a majority of intelligent and rational people. Which of course includes not many people from here. after all, the newspoll as 50/50 and Fairfax was 48/52, this identical thread would refer to Fairfax instead.

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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Karnal

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Re: Newspoll Labor 53% to LNP 47% 18-5-15
Reply #36 - May 19^th, 2015 at 9:25am

longweekend58 wrote on May 18^th, 2015 at 11:39pm:

Dsmithy70 wrote on May 18^th, 2015 at 4:49pm:

longweekend58 wrote on May 18^th, 2015 at 4:35pm:

Witness the outrage - the OUTRAGE - over a proposed $10 per year increase in the price of petrol or the 'massive' maxime co-payment of $70 per year.

I like talking politics with you, we have a long history some 10+ years now.

Whilst I become ever more cynical & bitter, you become more delusional as demonstrated by the above.

Did you miss the massive outrage at a small increase to prices that was in most cases over compensated for?

No you didn't miss it, in fact you were driving on of the buses to Canberra.

Now of course you'll say Gillard ruled out a carbon tax hence the outrage, yet I'm sure Tony promised no new taxes & no changes to Medicare.

But WHATEVER.

TEN DOLLARS

A YEAR

And this causes outrage?

This is how much my electricity bill went up under Labor.

SHAME LABOR SHAME

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skippy.

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Re: Newspoll Labor 53% to LNP 47% 18-5-15
Reply #37 - May 19^th, 2015 at 2:58pm

longweekend58 wrote on May 18^th, 2015 at 11:42pm:

Bam wrote on May 18^th, 2015 at 5:45pm:

polite_gandalf wrote on May 18^th, 2015 at 2:21pm:

longweekend58 wrote on May 18^th, 2015 at 2:16pm:

I am just enjoying you hypocrites picking and choosing results.

If you bothered taking any notice at all to Bam's posting history you'd know straight away that no one has pointed out the futility of taking out polls in isolation more than him.

Indeed ... all opinion polls are just random samples. Getting all worked up about a random sample is rather meaningless.

We've had five post-budget polls in the past week producing results of 47 (Coalition)-53 (ALP) (ReachTel), 48-52 (Galaxy), 47-53 (Newspoll), 50-50 (Fairfax-Ipsos) and 49-51 (Morgan). Essential is due to report tomorrow, and will probably come in at 48-52 or 49-51.

All we can deduce from this is that the Coalition may have improved their standing slightly. I doubt very much that the Coalition would be so foolhardy as to call an early election on the basis of one Ipsos poll. Unlike their fanbois, they look at ALL the polling, including private opinion polling that we don't usually get to see. The polling aggregate would say quite clearly that an early election would be unwise.

a conclusion that would be supported by a majority of intelligent and rational people. Which of course includes not many people from here. after all, the newspoll as 50/50 and Fairfax was 48/52, this identical thread would refer to Fairfax instead.

LOL longliar still at it.

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tickleandrose

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Re: Newspoll Labor 53% to LNP 47% 18-5-15
Reply #38 - May 19^th, 2015 at 3:17pm

If I were the coalition, I would sit tight, and wait to see how much of the budget gets through. Even just most gets through, then its still better than last year when most key measures were rejected. That would at least build some confidence in th Coalition ranks, and have something to talk about - e.g. support business etc. Because come next election, talks about mining tax and carbon tax would not buy much votes.

My guess, is that the government would wait and see what happen to the poll. If it turns better, and improves, then an early election is likely around Novemember. However, if its not, the government will try for a more generous budget next year, with delay to return to surplus - a sort of Howard style vote buying - with deals so sweet that even Labor would not reject, and call an snap election at the honeymoon period.

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polite_gandalf Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 20027 Canberra Gender:	Re: Newspoll Labor 53% to LNP 47% 18-5-15 Reply #39 - May 19^th, 2015 at 3:25pm The government doesn't want another budget before the election - IMO.
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Karnal

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Re: Newspoll Labor 53% to LNP 47% 18-5-15
Reply #40 - May 19^th, 2015 at 3:38pm

polite_gandalf wrote on May 19^th, 2015 at 3:25pm:

The government doesn't want another budget before the election - IMO.

This is a no-nonsense, no-excuses government, G - the grown-ups back in charge, sport and terrorism back on the front pages again.

Under-promise and over-deliver, that's Mr Abbott's motto. End the toxic chaos, fix the budget emergency, say what you'll do and do what you say. Easy.

Why would we want another budget? Our fiscal trajectory is finally back on track. If the leftards want to oppose every little thing, that's their problem. Mr Abbott is quietly fixing Labor's mess and bringing home the bacon.

And thank heavens for that.

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« Last Edit: May 19^th, 2015 at 4:27pm by Karnal »

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Bam

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Re: Newspoll Labor 53% to LNP 47% 18-5-15
Reply #41 - May 19^th, 2015 at 7:07pm

Bam wrote on May 18^th, 2015 at 5:45pm:

We've had five post-budget polls in the past week producing results of 47 (Coalition)-53 (ALP) (ReachTel), 48-52 (Galaxy), 47-53 (Newspoll), 50-50 (Fairfax-Ipsos) and 49-51 (Morgan). Essential is due to report tomorrow, and will probably come in at 48-52 or 49-51.

As I predicted, Essential has reported today with 2PP figures of 48 (Coalition) 52 (ALP).

Primary votes: Coalition 41, ALP 40, Greens 10, PUP 1, Others 8.

2PP is calculated using the 2013 election preferences, so take these 2PP numbers with a little grain of salt.

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skippy.

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Re: Newspoll Labor 53% to LNP 47% 18-5-15
Reply #42 - May 19^th, 2015 at 7:16pm

Bam wrote on May 19^th, 2015 at 7:07pm:

Bam wrote on May 18^th, 2015 at 5:45pm:

We've had five post-budget polls in the past week producing results of 47 (Coalition)-53 (ALP) (ReachTel), 48-52 (Galaxy), 47-53 (Newspoll), 50-50 (Fairfax-Ipsos) and 49-51 (Morgan). Essential is due to report tomorrow, and will probably come in at 48-52 or 49-51.

As I predicted, Essential has reported today with 2PP figures of 48 (Coalition) 52 (ALP).

Primary votes: Coalition 41, ALP 40, Greens 10, PUP 1, Others 8.

2PP is calculated using the 2013 election preferences, so take these 2PP numbers with a little grain of salt.

That " other" is the elephant in the room. Labor used to be able to pull off an election victory if it got around 38% primary but it all depends on how well the Greens do as they throw about 85% of their preferences Labor's way. A couple of elections ago 40 primary would have been sweat but now they probably need that, at least. Labor are just lucky coalition numbers are dismal too.

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