Australian Politics Forum - Little Ice Age imminent?

BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #90 - Jul 22^nd, 2015 at 7:34pm

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 13^th, 2015 at 3:10pm:

The_Barnacle wrote on Jul 13^th, 2015 at 11:00am:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Jul 12^th, 2015 at 1:43pm:

Even if the warming is natural (which it most likely is),

Ajax wrote on Jul 12^th, 2015 at 2:05pm:

The Earth has been getting warmer BUT its not because man has been emitting CO2 into the atmosphere.

Well at least we are making progress. The skeptics are grudgingly admitting that the earth is warming.
Now all that is required is a basic chemistry lesson on how CO2 is a greenhouse gas and how 7 billion people burning fossil fuels will inevitably change the make up of the atmosphere.

then you can answer why in 20 years the CO2 concentration has increased but temperatures have not.

Temperature is an indicator of heat content within a system boundary:

when you talk about temperature you must also talk about it's system boundary and you do not BECAUSE YOU ARE A PROPAGANDA MERCHANT!

tHANKS FOR PLAYING- WE ALL TUNE IN TO WATCH ME OWN YOU LONG TIME AND WE ALL KNOW YOU LOVE ME LIKE A DIRTY _______ Cheesy

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BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #91 - Jul 22^nd, 2015 at 7:35pm

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 13^th, 2015 at 3:05pm:

The_Barnacle wrote on Jul 12^th, 2015 at 10:56am:

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 10^th, 2015 at 10:02am:

The_Barnacle wrote on Jul 9^th, 2015 at 10:17pm:

All things being equal, if you increase the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere you will produce warming. That is pretty basic science.

Except it isnt true or that simple. CO2 concentration shave been increasing in the last 20 years and yet temperature has not. That conclusively disproves the theory of a linear simplistic relationship.

No it doesn't. The reason there hasn't been a simplistic linear increase in temperature is that there are a lot of other variables. But the TREND is that temperatures are increasing.

You go on about "statistically insignificant" increases but you ignore the fact that 18 years is statistically insignificant when you are talking about global climate change over many decades. You also conveniently ignore the cherry picking of 1998 as the aledged start of the pause which was a year of unprecedented el nino inspired warming.

And then you have the cheek to join the tin foil hat brigade and claim there is some massive conspiracy theory amongst all the world scientists.

do you realise that in a sentence denying my post you actually confirmed that there is no linear relationship? You complain about cherry-picking when it is no such thing. It doesnt matter when you choose the start date. the last 18 years show no increase in temperatures. The fact you are unwilling or unable to accept that indicates the depth of your religious mania regarding climate change.

You are factually incorrect!

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BatteriesNotIncluded Gold Member Offline MediocrityNET: because people died for this! Posts: 26966	Re: Little Ice Age imminent? Reply #92 - Jul 22^nd, 2015 at 7:36pm red baron wrote on Jul 13^th, 2015 at 2:29pm: Very interesting post Swagman. Without the sun's solar flares, we are for the high jump. Please explain!
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BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #93 - Jul 22^nd, 2015 at 7:40pm

Swagman wrote on Jul 13^th, 2015 at 11:35am:

The_Barnacle wrote on Jul 13^th, 2015 at 11:00am:

The skeptics are grudgingly admitting that the earth is warming.

......off and on for 11,700 years or so give or take a few years

Swagman believes the earth is still operating with sinusoidal behaviour, apparently: nothing to see here folks just keep purchasing and burning fuel and living like the witches wand of hollywood tells you to Shocked

-------> Good sheeple, uncle will be so happy and give me a present!

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BatteriesNotIncluded Gold Member Offline MediocrityNET: because people died for this! Posts: 26966	Re: Little Ice Age imminent? Reply #94 - Jul 22^nd, 2015 at 7:41pm Ajax wrote on Jul 12^th, 2015 at 2:05pm: The Earth has been getting warmer BUT its not because man has been emitting CO2 into the atmosphere. AGW = mythology Ajax misses the family that don't bother talking to him anymore
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BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #95 - Jul 22^nd, 2015 at 7:42pm

gizmo_2655 wrote on Jul 12^th, 2015 at 1:43pm:

Very_Vinnie wrote on Jul 12^th, 2015 at 12:13pm:

The_Barnacle wrote on Jul 12^th, 2015 at 10:56am:

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 10^th, 2015 at 10:02am:

The_Barnacle wrote on Jul 9^th, 2015 at 10:17pm:

All things being equal, if you increase the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere you will produce warming. That is pretty basic science.

Except it isnt true or that simple. CO2 concentrations have been increasing in the last 20 years and yet temperature has not. That conclusively disproves the theory of a linear simplistic relationship.

No it doesn't. The reason there hasn't been a simplistic linear increase in temperature is that there are a lot of other variables. But the TREND is that temperatures are increasing.

You go on about "statistically insignificant" increases but you ignore the fact that 18 years is statistically insignificant when you are talking about global climate change over many decades. You also conveniently ignore the cherry picking of 1998 as the aledged start of the pause which was a year of unprecedented el nino inspired warming.

And then you have the cheek to join the tin foil hat brigade and claim there is some massive conspiracy theory amongst all the world scientists.

January 22, 2015, 10:28 PST

The 10 warmest years: Not exactly forever ago

Last week NASA and NOAA announced that 2014 topped the list of hottest years ever recorded.
What’s worse, the ten warmest years [highlight]ever recorded have all occurred since 1998.[/highlight]

http://climate.nasa.gov/blog/2224

And???

Even if the warming is natural (

which it most likely is

), it would make perfect sense that the temperatures would be generally cooler (allowing for natural 'peaks and valleys') the further back towards the LIA you check.

Quantitative argument now is it Cheesy

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BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #96 - Jul 22^nd, 2015 at 7:45pm

The_Barnacle wrote on Jul 12^th, 2015 at 10:56am:

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 10^th, 2015 at 10:02am:

The_Barnacle wrote on Jul 9^th, 2015 at 10:17pm:

All things being equal, if you increase the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere you will produce warming. That is pretty basic science.

Except it isnt true or that simple. CO2 concentration shave been increasing in the last 20 years and yet temperature has not. That conclusively disproves the theory of a linear simplistic relationship.

No it doesn't. The reason there hasn't been a simplistic linear increase in temperature is that there are a lot of other variables. But the TREND is that temperatures are increasing.

You go on about "statistically insignificant" increases but you ignore the fact that 18 years is statistically insignificant when you are talking about global climate change over many decades. You also conveniently ignore the cherry picking of 1998 as the aledged start of the pause which was a year of unprecedented el nino inspired warming.

And then you have the cheek to join the tin foil hat brigade and claim there is some massive conspiracy theory amongst all the world scientists.

The trick is, "..temperature of what?"

Temperature is an indicator of the heat content within a system boundary.... any talk of temperature needs to include the system boundary it is talking about otherwise it means nothing!

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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) *

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BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #97 - Jul 22^nd, 2015 at 7:48pm

President Elect, The Mechanic wrote on Jul 11^th, 2015 at 9:34pm:

I know it seems like the coldest year on record..

but really gentlemen..

its been the hottest year ever because of us scientist are sure the heat is hidden under the sea because heat sinks and not rises as popular theory might say...

yep..

global warming is alive and well..

lol, you know nothing about how mass interacts with energy!

Oh, yeh, vote for copper internet and pretend to your kids you know how the world works: what a joke you lib voters are Cheesy

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Swagman Gold Member Offline Beware of cheap imitations...... Posts: 15095 Illawarra NSW Gender:	Re: Little Ice Age imminent? Reply #98 - Jul 22^nd, 2015 at 8:12pm
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John_Taverner

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #99 - Jul 22^nd, 2015 at 8:33pm

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 10^th, 2015 at 10:02am:

Except it isnt true or that simple. CO2 concentration shave been increasing in the last 20 years and yet temperature has not. That conclusively disproves the theory of a linear simplistic relationship.

What theory of a linear simplistic relationship are you talking about? OK, you claim you can conclusively disprove (?) your own strawman, but you demonstrate quite clearly that you have absolutely no concept of the underlying science.

For one thing, it's a logarithmic relationship, and the factor that varies with CO2 concentration is called radiative forcing.

ΔF=5.35ln(C/C_o) in Wm-2

That's what they teach at High School. You on the other hand think that you're arguing against a linear relationship. Then you add the term "simplistic".

The only simplistic thing here is your argument.

Major fail.

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innocentbystander. Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 4723 Gender:	Re: Little Ice Age imminent? Reply #100 - Jul 22^nd, 2015 at 9:34pm ____ wrote on Jul 22^nd, 2015 at 6:56pm: Orbit eccentricity, axial tilt, Yeah but enough about you, what about the Earth?
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longweekend58

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #101 - Jul 23^rd, 2015 at 8:58am

John_Taverner wrote on Jul 22^nd, 2015 at 8:33pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 10^th, 2015 at 10:02am:

Except it isnt true or that simple. CO2 concentration shave been increasing in the last 20 years and yet temperature has not. That conclusively disproves the theory of a linear simplistic relationship.

What theory of a linear simplistic relationship are you talking about? OK, you claim you can conclusively disprove (?) your own strawman, but you demonstrate quite clearly that you have absolutely no concept of the underlying science.

For one thing, it's a logarithmic relationship, and the factor that varies with CO2 concentration is called radiative forcing.

ΔF=5.35ln(C/C_o) in Wm-2

That's what they teach at High School. You on the other hand think that you're arguing against a linear relationship. Then you add the term "simplistic".

The only simplistic thing here is your argument.

Major fail.

they teach the relationship between CO2 and temperature in high school??? And the problem remains that Co2 has increased and temperature has not a all. Linear or logarithmic, the relationship is clearly nowhere near that simple.

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BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #102 - Jul 23^rd, 2015 at 5:07pm

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 23^rd, 2015 at 8:58am:

John_Taverner wrote on Jul 22^nd, 2015 at 8:33pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 10^th, 2015 at 10:02am:

Except it isnt true or that simple. CO2 concentration shave been increasing in the last 20 years and yet temperature has not. That conclusively disproves the theory of a linear simplistic relationship.

What theory of a linear simplistic relationship are you talking about? OK, you claim you can conclusively disprove (?) your own strawman, but you demonstrate quite clearly that you have absolutely no concept of the underlying science.

For one thing, it's a logarithmic relationship, and the factor that varies with CO2 concentration is called radiative forcing.

ΔF=5.35ln(C/C_o) in Wm-2

That's what they teach at High School. You on the other hand think that you're arguing against a linear relationship. Then you add the term "simplistic".

The only simplistic thing here is your argument.

Major fail.

they teach the relationship between CO2 and temperature in high school??? And the problem remains that Co2 has increased and temperature has not a all. Linear or logarithmic, the relationship is clearly nowhere near that simple.

Directly proportional can't mean linear if the system is complex by definition!

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BatteriesNotIncluded Gold Member Offline MediocrityNET: because people died for this! Posts: 26966	Re: Little Ice Age imminent? Reply #103 - Jul 23^rd, 2015 at 5:09pm Swagman wrote on Jul 22^nd, 2015 at 8:12pm: http://i17.photobucket.com/albums/b76/timbo2530/aGWT.jpg Jevons paradox makes people very rich doesn' it ... that's what all those wars are for!
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The_Barnacle

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #104 - Jul 23^rd, 2015 at 9:48pm

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 23^rd, 2015 at 8:58am:

And the problem remains that Co2 has increased and temperature has not a all. Linear or logarithmic, the relationship is clearly nowhere near that simple.

On that we agree. In a system as complex as the earth it is never going to be a linear relationship. And that is why the so called "warming pause" is such a red herring.

What we would expect to see is lots of "noise" in the short term but an unmistakable trend of warming over the long term.

And that is exactly what we see.

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