Australian Politics Forum - Little Ice Age imminent?

Very_Vinnie

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #135 - Aug 13^th, 2015 at 1:12pm

Very_Vinnie wrote on Jul 24^th, 2015 at 6:23pm:

Anyone caught up in the media frenzy and hype over a 'little ice age' might like to read this report
- top to bottom -
for a bit of a reality check

"... but most predictions put it at around a very modest 0.2 degrees, which would be easily exceeded by ... predicted global warming ...

Which means temperatures will keep on rising without a new Maunder Minimum—according to the Potsdam Climate Institute"

http://www.abc.net.au/mediawatch/transcripts/s4277443.htm

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There are those that look at things the way they are, and ask why?
I dream of things that never were, and ask why not?

- Robert Francis Kennedy

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 18065 Gender:	Re: Little Ice Age imminent? Reply #136 - Aug 13^th, 2015 at 3:39pm Wow, a media program that poses as scientific. I'll have to adjust my thinking.
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mariacostel Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 7344 Sydney Gender:	Re: Little Ice Age imminent? Reply #137 - Aug 13^th, 2015 at 3:48pm I think that whatever the final climate outcome is, no scientist, activist or other observer will ever get it right. If there is one thing that defies prediction it is weather and climate.
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lee

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #138 - Aug 13^th, 2015 at 4:10pm

mariacostel wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 3:48pm:

I think that whatever the final climate outcome is, no scientist, activist or other observer will ever get it right. If there is one thing that defies prediction it is weather and climate.
Posted by: lee Mark & Quote Quote

'The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible. '

http://ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/501.htm

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Art Vandelay Junior Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 55 Gender:	Re: Little Ice Age imminent? Reply #139 - Aug 13^th, 2015 at 4:37pm Climate change alarmism. It's as easy as ABC.
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BatteriesNotIncluded

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people died for this!

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #140 - Aug 13^th, 2015 at 4:39pm

lee wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 4:10pm:

mariacostel wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 3:48pm:

I think that whatever the final climate outcome is, no scientist, activist or other observer will ever get it right. If there is one thing that defies prediction it is weather and climate.
Posted by: lee Mark & Quote Quote

'The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible. '

http://ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/501.htm

Improve methods to quantify uncertainties of climate projections and scenarios, including development and exploration of long-term ensemble simulations using complex models. The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible. Rather the focus must be upon the prediction of the probability distribution of the system�s future possible states by the generation of ensembles of model solutions. Addressing adequately the statistical nature of climate is computationally intensive and requires the application of new methods of model diagnosis, but such statistical information is essential.

(...from your source: Roll Eyes

)

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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) *

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mariacostel

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #141 - Aug 13^th, 2015 at 5:19pm

lee wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 4:10pm:

mariacostel wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 3:48pm:

I think that whatever the final climate outcome is, no scientist, activist or other observer will ever get it right. If there is one thing that defies prediction it is weather and climate.
Posted by: lee Mark & Quote Quote

'The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible. '

Or.... what I said. LOL

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lee

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #142 - Aug 13^th, 2015 at 5:28pm

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 4:39pm:

Addressing adequately the statistical nature of climate

What statistical nature? It is chaotic.

' Due to the sensitive dependence of chaotic systems on initial conditions, their behavior over sufficiently long times is unpredictable in practice, even though the underlying dynamics is deterministic. Instead of attempting to accurately describe a phase space trajectory over a long duration, it often makes more sense to try to calculate statistical properties of the system, such as, the frequency with which different regions of phase space are visited. '

http://scitation.aip.org/content/aip/journal/chaos/18/3/10.1063/1.2960541

So what were the initial conditions?

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 18065 Gender:	Re: Little Ice Age imminent? Reply #143 - Aug 13^th, 2015 at 5:30pm mariacostel wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 5:19pm: Or.... what I said. LOL Exactly.
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BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #144 - Aug 13^th, 2015 at 5:43pm

lee wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 5:28pm:

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 4:39pm:

Addressing adequately the statistical nature of climate

What statistical nature? It is chaotic.

' Due to the sensitive dependence of chaotic systems on initial conditions, their behavior over sufficiently long times is unpredictable in practice, even though the underlying dynamics is deterministic. Instead of attempting to accurately describe a phase space trajectory over a long duration, it often makes more sense to try to calculate statistical properties of the system, such as, the frequency with which different regions of phase space are visited. '

http://scitation.aip.org/content/aip/journal/chaos/18/3/10.1063/1.2960541

So what were the initial conditions?

HOW ELSE DO YOU MEASURE A COMPLEX SYSTEM?

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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) *

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 18065 Gender:	Re: Little Ice Age imminent? Reply #145 - Aug 13^th, 2015 at 6:20pm BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 5:43pm: HOW ELSE DO YOU MEASURE A COMPLEX SYSTEM? Depends on your definition of "Measure".
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mariacostel

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #146 - Aug 13^th, 2015 at 6:28pm

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 5:43pm:

lee wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 5:28pm:

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 4:39pm:

Addressing adequately the statistical nature of climate

What statistical nature? It is chaotic.

' Due to the sensitive dependence of chaotic systems on initial conditions, their behavior over sufficiently long times is unpredictable in practice, even though the underlying dynamics is deterministic. Instead of attempting to accurately describe a phase space trajectory over a long duration, it often makes more sense to try to calculate statistical properties of the system, such as, the frequency with which different regions of phase space are visited. '

So what were the initial conditions?

HOW ELSE DO YOU MEASURE A COMPLEX SYSTEM?

You can't measure complex systems. That is why they are called complex in the first place.

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mariacostel Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 7344 Sydney Gender:	Re: Little Ice Age imminent? Reply #147 - Aug 13^th, 2015 at 6:29pm lee wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 6:20pm: BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 5:43pm: HOW ELSE DO YOU MEASURE A COMPLEX SYSTEM? Depends on your definition of "Measure". Guess. Dream. Fantasise. Estimate. Ask your friends. The imprecise nature of the climate debate is truly irritating.
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BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #148 - Aug 13^th, 2015 at 6:41pm

mariacostel wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 6:29pm:

lee wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 6:20pm:

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 5:43pm:

HOW ELSE DO YOU MEASURE A COMPLEX SYSTEM?

Depends on your definition of "Measure".

Guess. Dream. Fantasise. Estimate. Ask your friends.

The imprecise nature of the climate debate is truly irritating.

...we should just get back to paying our rent and just shutting up like good sheeple perhaps?

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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) *

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BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #149 - Aug 13^th, 2015 at 6:42pm

mariacostel wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 6:28pm:

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 5:43pm:

lee wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 5:28pm:

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 4:39pm:

Addressing adequately the statistical nature of climate

What statistical nature? It is chaotic.

' Due to the sensitive dependence of chaotic systems on initial conditions, their behavior over sufficiently long times is unpredictable in practice, even though the underlying dynamics is deterministic. Instead of attempting to accurately describe a phase space trajectory over a long duration, it often makes more sense to try to calculate statistical properties of the system, such as, the frequency with which different regions of phase space are visited. '

So what were the initial conditions?

HOW ELSE DO YOU MEASURE A COMPLEX SYSTEM?

You can't measure complex systems. That is why they are called complex in the first place.

So what is an indicator? Roll Eyes

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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) *

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