Australian Politics Forum - Little Ice Age imminent?

mariacostel

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Australian Politics

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #150 - Aug 13^th, 2015 at 6:53pm

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 6:42pm:

mariacostel wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 6:28pm:

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 5:43pm:

lee wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 5:28pm:

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 4:39pm:

Addressing adequately the statistical nature of climate

What statistical nature? It is chaotic.

' Due to the sensitive dependence of chaotic systems on initial conditions, their behavior over sufficiently long times is unpredictable in practice, even though the underlying dynamics is deterministic. Instead of attempting to accurately describe a phase space trajectory over a long duration, it often makes more sense to try to calculate statistical properties of the system, such as, the frequency with which different regions of phase space are visited. '

So what were the initial conditions?

HOW ELSE DO YOU MEASURE A COMPLEX SYSTEM?

You can't measure complex systems. That is why they are called complex in the first place.

So what is an indicator? Roll Eyes

Litmus.

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Karnal

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Posts: 96714

Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #151 - Aug 13^th, 2015 at 7:52pm

mariacostel wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 6:53pm:

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 6:42pm:

mariacostel wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 6:28pm:

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 5:43pm:

lee wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 5:28pm:

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 4:39pm:

Addressing adequately the statistical nature of climate

What statistical nature? It is chaotic.

' Due to the sensitive dependence of chaotic systems on initial conditions, their behavior over sufficiently long times is unpredictable in practice, even though the underlying dynamics is deterministic. Instead of attempting to accurately describe a phase space trajectory over a long duration, it often makes more sense to try to calculate statistical properties of the system, such as, the frequency with which different regions of phase space are visited. '

So what were the initial conditions?

HOW ELSE DO YOU MEASURE A COMPLEX SYSTEM?

You can't measure complex systems. That is why they are called complex in the first place.

So what is an indicator? Roll Eyes

Litmus.

There’s no need to be rude, Maria. You might be new here, but you’re like any other member.We must all be nice to each other, dear.

A recent member was banned for calling people names. We all miss him, but he needs to learn his lesson.

I do hope Longweekend58 will be back in no time.

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mariacostel

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Sydney
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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #152 - Aug 13^th, 2015 at 8:07pm

Karnal wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 7:52pm:

mariacostel wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 6:53pm:

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 6:42pm:

mariacostel wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 6:28pm:

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 5:43pm:

lee wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 5:28pm:

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 4:39pm:

Addressing adequately the statistical nature of climate

What statistical nature? It is chaotic.

' Due to the sensitive dependence of chaotic systems on initial conditions, their behavior over sufficiently long times is unpredictable in practice, even though the underlying dynamics is deterministic. Instead of attempting to accurately describe a phase space trajectory over a long duration, it often makes more sense to try to calculate statistical properties of the system, such as, the frequency with which different regions of phase space are visited. '

So what were the initial conditions?

HOW ELSE DO YOU MEASURE A COMPLEX SYSTEM?

You can't measure complex systems. That is why they are called complex in the first place.

So what is an indicator? Roll Eyes

Litmus.

There’s no need to be rude, Maria. You might be new here, but you’re like any other member.We must all be nice to each other, dear.

A recent member was banned for calling people names. We all miss him, but he needs to learn his lesson.

I do hope Longweekend58 will be back in no time.

Litmus. Indicator. High School Chemistry. Google it.

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Karnal

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #153 - Aug 13^th, 2015 at 8:14pm

mariacostel wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 8:07pm:

Karnal wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 7:52pm:

mariacostel wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 6:53pm:

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 6:42pm:

mariacostel wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 6:28pm:

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 5:43pm:

lee wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 5:28pm:

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 4:39pm:

Addressing adequately the statistical nature of climate

What statistical nature? It is chaotic.

' Due to the sensitive dependence of chaotic systems on initial conditions, their behavior over sufficiently long times is unpredictable in practice, even though the underlying dynamics is deterministic. Instead of attempting to accurately describe a phase space trajectory over a long duration, it often makes more sense to try to calculate statistical properties of the system, such as, the frequency with which different regions of phase space are visited. '

So what were the initial conditions?

HOW ELSE DO YOU MEASURE A COMPLEX SYSTEM?

You can't measure complex systems. That is why they are called complex in the first place.

So what is an indicator? Roll Eyes

Litmus.

There’s no need to be rude, Maria. You might be new here, but you’re like any other member.We must all be nice to each other, dear.

A recent member was banned for calling people names. We all miss him, but he needs to learn his lesson.

I do hope Longweekend58 will be back in no time.

Litmus. Indicator. High School Chemistry. Google it.

Please excuse me, dear. I feel awful.

I only have year 8 chemistry, you see, but I’m much better at maths.

I’m largely self-taught. I could do a PhD, but the professors are idiots.

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 18065 Gender:	Re: Little Ice Age imminent? Reply #154 - Aug 13^th, 2015 at 8:33pm Karnal wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 7:52pm: There’s no need to be rude, Maria. There have been comments that have been rude expressed in the debate. This wasn't one of them. Lighten up, buttercup.
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Unforgiven

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #155 - Aug 13^th, 2015 at 8:58pm

Prediction of new ice age is nonsense.

A number of Ozpolitic denizens have been claiming a new ice age is imminent based on a forecast reduction in sunspots and solar flares. However, the facts are otherwise. The fact is that solar radiation on earth's surfaces is very constant and largely independent of sunspot activity and varies by only 0.1% during extreme low and high sunspot activity.

Therefore denizen Bobby's investment in igloo construction business is likely to suffer meltdown.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/07/13/sunspot_cycles_won_t_cause_a_...
Quote:

Sunspots have been observed on a regular basis for at least 400 years, and over that period, there’s a weak correlation between the number of sunspots and global temperature—most notably during a drastic downturn in the number of sunspots from about 1645 to 1715. Known as the Maunder minimum, this phenomenon happened about the same time as a decades-long European cold snap known as the Little Ice Age. That connection led to theory that this variability remains the dominant factor in Earth’s climate. Though that idea is still widely circulated, it’s been disproved. In reality, sunspots fluctuate in an 11-year cycle, and the current cycle is the weakest in 100 years—yet 2014 was the planet’s hottest year in recorded history.

If you look closely at the original press release, the study’s author, Valentina Zharkova, never implied a new ice age is imminent—only that we may see a sharp downturn in the number of sunspots. Yes, the sun is a variable star, but its output is remarkably stable. The amount of energy we receive from the sun just doesn’t change fast enough to cause a rapid-onset ice age in just a few decades.

The root of the problem here may be a poorly worded quote in the press release implying an imminent 60 percent decline in solar activity. Yes, numbers of sunspots can vary by that much or even more on an 11-year cycle, but the sun’s output—the total amount of energy we get—is extremely stable and only changes by about 0.1 percent, even in extreme sunspot cycles like the one Zharkova is predicting.

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“I’ll let you be in my dreams if I can be in yours” Bob Dylan

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Bobby.

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #156 - Aug 13^th, 2015 at 9:05pm

Unforgiven wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 8:58pm:

Prediction of new ice age is nonsense.

A number of Ozpolitic denizens have been claiming a new ice age is imminent based on a forecast reduction in sunspots and solar flares. However, the facts are otherwise. The fact is that solar radiation on earth's surfaces is very constant and largely independent of sunspot activity and varies by only 0.1% during extreme low and high sunspot activity.

Therefore denizen Bobby's investment in igloo construction business is likely to suffer meltdown.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/07/13/sunspot_cycles_won_t_cause_a_...
Quote:

Sunspots have been observed on a regular basis for at least 400 years, and over that period, there’s a weak correlation between the number of sunspots and global temperature—most notably during a drastic downturn in the number of sunspots from about 1645 to 1715. Known as the Maunder minimum, this phenomenon happened about the same time as a decades-long European cold snap known as the Little Ice Age. That connection led to theory that this variability remains the dominant factor in Earth’s climate. Though that idea is still widely circulated, it’s been disproved. In reality, sunspots fluctuate in an 11-year cycle, and the current cycle is the weakest in 100 years—yet 2014 was the planet’s hottest year in recorded history.

If you look closely at the original press release, the study’s author, Valentina Zharkova, never implied a new ice age is imminent—only that we may see a sharp downturn in the number of sunspots. Yes, the sun is a variable star, but its output is remarkably stable. The amount of energy we receive from the sun just doesn’t change fast enough to cause a rapid-onset ice age in just a few decades.

The root of the problem here may be a poorly worded quote in the press release implying an imminent 60 percent decline in solar activity. Yes, numbers of sunspots can vary by that much or even more on an 11-year cycle, but the sun’s output—the total amount of energy we get—is extremely stable and only changes by about 0.1 percent, even in extreme sunspot cycles like the one Zharkova is predicting.

Will you apologise after the next Northern Winter?

Will more records be broken for the lowest temperatures & highest snowfalls?

Pre-forgiven

namaste

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Bobby.

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #157 - Aug 13^th, 2015 at 9:06pm

Karnal wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 7:52pm:

mariacostel wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 6:53pm:

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 6:42pm:

mariacostel wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 6:28pm:

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 5:43pm:

lee wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 5:28pm:

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 4:39pm:

Addressing adequately the statistical nature of climate

What statistical nature? It is chaotic.

' Due to the sensitive dependence of chaotic systems on initial conditions, their behavior over sufficiently long times is unpredictable in practice, even though the underlying dynamics is deterministic. Instead of attempting to accurately describe a phase space trajectory over a long duration, it often makes more sense to try to calculate statistical properties of the system, such as, the frequency with which different regions of phase space are visited. '

So what were the initial conditions?

HOW ELSE DO YOU MEASURE A COMPLEX SYSTEM?

You can't measure complex systems. That is why they are called complex in the first place.

So what is an indicator? Roll Eyes

Litmus.

There’s no need to be rude, Maria. You might be new here, but you’re like any other member.We must all be nice to each other, dear.

A recent member was banned for calling people names. We all miss him, but he needs to learn his lesson.

I do hope Longweekend58 will be back in no time.

Was Longy banned again? Grin

He's a nasty one.

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innocentbystander. Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 4723 Gender:	Re: Little Ice Age imminent? Reply #158 - Aug 14^th, 2015 at 9:03am Do you think the coming ice age has been caused by all this additional co2 Bobby?
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lee

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #159 - Aug 14^th, 2015 at 1:18pm

Very_Vinnie wrote on Jul 24^th, 2015 at 9:53am:

Try NASA - or our own BOM

'Far from being published and peer reviewed, the methods are secret, and rely on — in their own words — a “supervised process” of “expert judgment” and “operator intervention”. In other words, a BOM employee makes their best guess, ruling in or out the “optimal” choices, making assumptions that are not documented anywhere.'

http://joannenova.com.au/2015/06/if-it-cant-be-replicated-it-isnt-science-bom-ad...

Science and Replicability go hand in hand

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BatteriesNotIncluded

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MediocrityNET: because
people died for this!

Posts: 26966

Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #160 - Aug 14^th, 2015 at 2:18pm

mariacostel wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 8:07pm:

Karnal wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 7:52pm:

mariacostel wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 6:53pm:

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 6:42pm:

mariacostel wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 6:28pm:

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 5:43pm:

lee wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 5:28pm:

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 4:39pm:

Addressing adequately the statistical nature of climate

What statistical nature? It is chaotic.

' Due to the sensitive dependence of chaotic systems on initial conditions, their behavior over sufficiently long times is unpredictable in practice, even though the underlying dynamics is deterministic. Instead of attempting to accurately describe a phase space trajectory over a long duration, it often makes more sense to try to calculate statistical properties of the system, such as, the frequency with which different regions of phase space are visited. '

So what were the initial conditions?

HOW ELSE DO YOU MEASURE A COMPLEX SYSTEM?

You can't measure complex systems. That is why they are called complex in the first place.

So what is an indicator? Roll Eyes

Litmus.

There’s no need to be rude, Maria. You might be new here, but you’re like any other member.We must all be nice to each other, dear.

A recent member was banned for calling people names. We all miss him, but he needs to learn his lesson.

I do hope Longweekend58 will be back in no time.

Litmus. Indicator. High School Chemistry. Google it.

Internet address space is being bought by fossil fools: like we don't know Roll Eyes

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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) *

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gizmo_2655

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Australian Politics

Posts: 16010
South West NSW
Gender: male

Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #161 - Aug 14^th, 2015 at 2:22pm

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Aug 14^th, 2015 at 2:18pm:

mariacostel wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 8:07pm:

Karnal wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 7:52pm:

mariacostel wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 6:53pm:

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 6:42pm:

mariacostel wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 6:28pm:

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 5:43pm:

lee wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 5:28pm:

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 4:39pm:

Addressing adequately the statistical nature of climate

What statistical nature? It is chaotic.

' Due to the sensitive dependence of chaotic systems on initial conditions, their behavior over sufficiently long times is unpredictable in practice, even though the underlying dynamics is deterministic. Instead of attempting to accurately describe a phase space trajectory over a long duration, it often makes more sense to try to calculate statistical properties of the system, such as, the frequency with which different regions of phase space are visited. '

So what were the initial conditions?

HOW ELSE DO YOU MEASURE A COMPLEX SYSTEM?

You can't measure complex systems. That is why they are called complex in the first place.

So what is an indicator? Roll Eyes

Litmus.

There’s no need to be rude, Maria. You might be new here, but you’re like any other member.We must all be nice to each other, dear.

A recent member was banned for calling people names. We all miss him, but he needs to learn his lesson.

I do hope Longweekend58 will be back in no time.

Litmus. Indicator. High School Chemistry. Google it.

Internet address space is being bought by fossil fools: like we don't know Roll Eyes

You mean people like you (fools who complain about fossil FUEL) are buying internet address space???

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"I just get sick of people who place a label on someone else with their own definition.

It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
Bobbythebat

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Bobby. Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 107178 Melbourne Gender:	Re: Little Ice Age imminent? Reply #162 - Aug 14^th, 2015 at 10:13pm innocentbystander. wrote on Aug 14^th, 2015 at 9:03am: Do you think the coming ice age has been caused by all this additional co2 Bobby? I agree that CO2 does cause global warming - it's just that for the next 15 to 25 years other factors will counteract it.
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Gnads Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 30110 Gender:	Re: Little Ice Age imminent? Reply #163 - Aug 15^th, 2015 at 7:55am We're having an "ICE AGE" alright only it has nothing to do with global climate change & all to do with morons taking 'crystal meth'.
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mariacostel

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Australian Politics

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Sydney
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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #164 - Aug 15^th, 2015 at 12:59pm

Bobby. wrote on Aug 14^th, 2015 at 10:13pm:

innocentbystander. wrote on Aug 14^th, 2015 at 9:03am:

Do you think the coming ice age has been caused by all this additional co2 Bobby?

I agree that CO2 does cause global warming -

it's just that for the next 15 to 25 years other factors will counteract it.

The factors that affect climate are huge in number and massive in complexity. That of course would account for why all the predictions and models simply fail and by a large margin. A lot of people seem intent on maintaining a doomsday scenario for planet earth and they simply create new ones when old ones expire. Has anyone noticed that Climate Change Fear appeared around the end of the Cold War and the worry of nuclear annihilation? And true to form, when the scaremongering of Climate Change eventually fades having been destroyed by climate's utter refusal to do as predicted, there will be another manufactured fear ready to replace it. It is not a conspiracy, but rather a global need for many people to be constantly at risk of disaster.

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