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Little Ice Age imminent? (Read 13620 times)
Grappler Deep State Feller
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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #45 - Jul 10th, 2015 at 10:57am
 
Not down here - it's too friggin' cold....
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“Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.”
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rabbitoh08
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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #46 - Jul 10th, 2015 at 12:22pm
 
longweekend58 wrote on Jul 10th, 2015 at 9:59am:
Very_Vinnie wrote on Jul 9th, 2015 at 8:28pm:
Quote:
...  the effect will be offset by recent global warming
*
...




*
... Indicating - and a confirmation - that factors increasing global average temperatures remain a CONSTANT

So much for "Professor" David Rose's claim of "no rise in global average temperatures in 20 years" - when each year has STILLbroken the record held by the previous year, more often than NOT







that is complete garbage.  the FACT is that the last 18 years has had no statistically valid change in temperature.

I know that confuses you but feel free to bluster and pretend otherwise.  That is your strength,

The FACT is that in the last 18 years - the planet has continued to warm

The FACT is that you have been caught red-handed telling deliberate lies by claiming that NASA and the UK Met support your "no warming in 18 years" nonsense.

The FACT is that you have been asked many many times to show us where NASA and the UK Met have ever said that there has been "no warming for 18 years"

The FACT is that you cannot show us this - because you are simply lying.  So you simply run away like a little girl - then repeat the lie again on some new thread.

Don't you think it is time you grew up and apologised for lying to the forum?  You are not fooling anybody.
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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #47 - Jul 10th, 2015 at 12:38pm
 
Longweekend is being so belted in this thread.

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Unforgiven
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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #48 - Jul 10th, 2015 at 1:47pm
 
____ wrote on Jul 10th, 2015 at 12:38pm:
Longweekend is being so belted in this thread.



Longweekend58 is the antichrist of climate science.
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“I’ll let you be in my dreams if I can be in yours” Bob Dylan
 
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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #49 - Jul 10th, 2015 at 1:54pm
 
Unforgiven wrote on Jul 10th, 2015 at 1:47pm:
____ wrote on Jul 10th, 2015 at 12:38pm:
Longweekend is being so belted in this thread.



Longweekend58 is the antichrist of climate science.



More stoned pixie at the bottom of the garden.
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longweekend58
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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #50 - Jul 10th, 2015 at 4:05pm
 
rabbitoh08 wrote on Jul 10th, 2015 at 12:22pm:
longweekend58 wrote on Jul 10th, 2015 at 9:59am:
Very_Vinnie wrote on Jul 9th, 2015 at 8:28pm:
Quote:
...  the effect will be offset by recent global warming
*
...




*
... Indicating - and a confirmation - that factors increasing global average temperatures remain a CONSTANT

So much for "Professor" David Rose's claim of "no rise in global average temperatures in 20 years" - when each year has STILLbroken the record held by the previous year, more often than NOT







that is complete garbage.  the FACT is that the last 18 years has had no statistically valid change in temperature.

I know that confuses you but feel free to bluster and pretend otherwise.  That is your strength,

The FACT is that in the last 18 years - the planet has continued to warm 
except it HASNT and it is PROVEN by temperature stats which you routinely reject, misinterpret or refuse to look at.


The FACT is that you have been caught red-handed telling deliberate lies by claiming that NASA and the UK Met support your "no warming in 18 years" nonsense. 
well you can keep believing that but it will mean you are a liar.  both organisations both accept and seek to explain the pause.


The FACT is that you have been asked many many times to show us where NASA and the UK Met have ever said that there has been "no warming for 18 years"
and have done so multiple times at which point you run away and come back a week later making this same claim


The FACT is that you cannot show us this - because you are simply lying.  So you simply run away like a little girl - then repeat the lie again on some new thread.

Don't you think it is time you grew up and apologised for lying to the forum?  You are not fooling anybody.


hey rabbit-droppings... your hysteria is showing!
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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."
 
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longweekend58
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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #51 - Jul 10th, 2015 at 4:06pm
 
Unforgiven wrote on Jul 10th, 2015 at 1:47pm:
____ wrote on Jul 10th, 2015 at 12:38pm:
Longweekend is being so belted in this thread.



Longweekend58 is the antichrist of climate science.


and you are nothing more than a mental patient
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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."
 
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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #52 - Jul 10th, 2015 at 4:30pm
 
longweekend58 wrote on Jul 10th, 2015 at 4:06pm:
Unforgiven wrote on Jul 10th, 2015 at 1:47pm:
____ wrote on Jul 10th, 2015 at 12:38pm:
Longweekend is being so belted in this thread.



Longweekend58 is the antichrist of climate science.


and you are nothing more than a mental patient


You must be tired and emotional. Your insults are getting lame and weaker.
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“I’ll let you be in my dreams if I can be in yours” Bob Dylan
 
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longweekend58
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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #53 - Jul 10th, 2015 at 4:37pm
 
Unforgiven wrote on Jul 10th, 2015 at 4:30pm:
longweekend58 wrote on Jul 10th, 2015 at 4:06pm:
Unforgiven wrote on Jul 10th, 2015 at 1:47pm:
____ wrote on Jul 10th, 2015 at 12:38pm:
Longweekend is being so belted in this thread.



Longweekend58 is the antichrist of climate science.


and you are nothing more than a mental patient


You must be tired and emotional. Your insults are getting lame and weaker.



once you reach the level of stupidity and ignorance that you have attained, it gets progressively hard to insult you.  after all, you are by your own admission, stupid, foolish, ignorant, uneducated and mentally unsound.

that doesnt leave a lot for me to add.
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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."
 
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rabbitoh08
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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #54 - Jul 10th, 2015 at 6:05pm
 
longweekend58 wrote on Jul 10th, 2015 at 4:05pm:
rabbitoh08 wrote on Jul 10th, 2015 at 12:22pm:
longweekend58 wrote on Jul 10th, 2015 at 9:59am:
Very_Vinnie wrote on Jul 9th, 2015 at 8:28pm:
Quote:
...  the effect will be offset by recent global warming
*
...




*
... Indicating - and a confirmation - that factors increasing global average temperatures remain a CONSTANT

So much for "Professor" David Rose's claim of "no rise in global average temperatures in 20 years" - when each year has STILLbroken the record held by the previous year, more often than NOT







that is complete garbage.  the FACT is that the last 18 years has had no statistically valid change in temperature.

I know that confuses you but feel free to bluster and pretend otherwise.  That is your strength,

The FACT is that in the last 18 years - the planet has continued to warm 
except it HASNT and it is PROVEN by temperature stats which you routinely reject, misinterpret or refuse to look at.


The FACT is that you have been caught red-handed telling deliberate lies by claiming that NASA and the UK Met support your "no warming in 18 years" nonsense. 
well you can keep believing that but it will mean you are a liar.  both organisations both accept and seek to explain the pause.


The FACT is that you have been asked many many times to show us where NASA and the UK Met have ever said that there has been "no warming for 18 years"
and have done so multiple times at which point you run away and come back a week later making this same claim


The FACT is that you cannot show us this - because you are simply lying.  So you simply run away like a little girl - then repeat the lie again on some new thread.

Don't you think it is time you grew up and apologised for lying to the forum?  You are not fooling anybody.


hey rabbit-droppings... your hysteria is showing!

And yet again - no answer.  You have been caught red-handed telling deliberate lies by claiming that NASA and the UK Met support your "no warming in 18 years" nonsense. 

Once again you are asked to show evidence where NASA and the UK Met have ever said that there has been "no warming for 18 years".  ANd once again you come up with the same pathetic lie "have done so multiple times"          

No you haven't liar.  If you had  - you would show us again.

Caught red-handed lying.

Let me help you liar.  Here is the NASA website:
http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/

Where do they say there has been "no warming for 18 years"?  Could you show us?

All I see is:
Global temperature rise
All three major global surface temperature reconstructions show that Earth has warmed since 1880.5 Most of this warming has occurred since the 1970s, with the 20 warmest years having occurred since 1981 and with all 10 of the warmest years occurring in the past 12 years.6 Even though the 2000s witnessed a solar output decline resulting in an unusually deep solar minimum in 2007-2009, surface temperatures continue to increase.7


and this:
Warming oceans
The oceans have absorbed much of this increased heat, with the top 700 meters (about 2,300 feet) of ocean showing warming of 0.302 degrees Fahrenheit since 1969.8


and this:
Shrinking ice sheets
The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have decreased in mass. Data from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment show Greenland lost 150 to 250 cubic kilometers (36 to 60 cubic miles) of ice per year between 2002 and 2006, while Antarctica lost about 152 cubic kilometers (36 cubic miles) of ice between 2002 and 2005.


and this:
Glacial retreat
Glaciers are retreating almost everywhere around the world — including in the Alps, Himalayas, Andes, Rockies, Alaska and Africa. 
      

No mention of an "no warming for 18 years"?   


Do you really think you are fooling anyone liar?

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Grappler Deep State Feller
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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #55 - Jul 10th, 2015 at 7:21pm
 
"  the effect will be offset by recent global warming"

.....so when we freeze our asses off here, some kaffir up north will cop a hot day?  Buggar....
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“Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.”
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lee
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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #56 - Jul 10th, 2015 at 7:37pm
 
I see a new paper Nieves et al (2015), once again attempts to explain the pause.

'Recent hiatus caused by decadal shift in Indo-Pacific heating

Recent modeling studies have proposed different scenarios to explain the slowdown in surface temperature in the most recent decade. Some of these studies seem to support the idea of internal variability and/or rearrangement of heat between the surface and the ocean interior. Others suggest that radiative forcing might also play a role. Our examination of observational data over the past two decades shows some significant differences compared to model results from reanalyses, and provides the most definitive explanation of how the heat was redistributed. We find that cooling in the top 100-meter layer of the Pacific Ocean was mainly compensated by warming in the 100- to 300-meter layer of the Indian and Pacific Oceans in the past decade since 2003. '

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/early/2015/07/08/science.aaa4521.abstract Paywalled

Extracts:
'Furthermore, as previously shown for interannual fluctuations (11), the decade long hiatus that began in 2003 is the result of a redistribution of heat within the ocean, rather than a change in the net warming rate.'

'Comparison of several of the most commonly used reanalyses with ocean observations raises concerns about their fidelity in simulating temperature changes, or in quantitatively explaining the redistribution of heat associated with the recent surface temperature hiatus.'

'Reanalyses are also inconsistent with ocean observations, in terms of the vertical and regional distribution of heating. This is true for both global and basin-wide averages (see bottom panel of Fig. 1 and figs. S8 to S12). '

'Together, these findings suggest no significant increase in the rate of warming below 700 m since 2003'


Corresponding author. E-mail: veronica.nieves@jpl.nasa.gov


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innocentbystander.
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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #57 - Jul 10th, 2015 at 7:40pm
 
lee wrote on Jul 10th, 2015 at 7:37pm:
I see a new paper Nieves et al (2015), once again attempts to explain the pause.







Better add that to the list  Grin





List of excuses for ‘the pause’ in global warming



1) Low solar activity

2) Oceans ate the global warming [debunked] [debunked] [debunked]

3) Chinese coal use [debunked]

4) Montreal Protocol

5) What ‘pause’? [debunked] [debunked] [debunked] [debunked]

6) Volcanic aerosols [debunked]

7) Stratospheric Water Vapor

8) Faster Pacific trade winds [debunked]

9) Stadium Waves

10) ‘Coincidence!’

11) Pine aerosols

12) It’s “not so unusual” and “no more than natural variability”

13) “Scientists looking at the wrong ‘lousy’ data” http://

14) Cold nights getting colder in Northern Hemisphere

15) We forgot to cherry-pick models in tune with natural variability [debunked]

16) Negative phase of Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

17) AMOC ocean oscillation

18) “Global brightening” has stopped

19) “Ahistorical media”

20) “It’s the hottest decade ever” Decadal averages used to hide the ‘pause’ [debunked]

21) Few El Ninos since 1999

22) Temperature variations fall “roughly in the middle of the AR4 model results”

23) “Not scientifically relevant”

24) The wrong type of El Ninos

25) Slower trade winds [debunked]

26) The climate is less sensitive to CO2 than previously thought [see also]

27) PDO and AMO natural cycles and here

28) ENSO

29) Solar cycle driven ocean temperature variations30) Warming Atlantic caused cooling Pacific [paper] [debunked by Trenberth & Wunsch]

31) “Experts simply do not know, and bad luck is one reason”

32) IPCC climate models are too complex, natural variability more important

33) NAO & PDO
34) Solar cycles
35) Scientists forgot “to look at our models and observations and ask questions”

36) The models really do explain the “pause” [debunked] [debunked] [debunked]

37) As soon as the sun, the weather and volcanoes – all natural factors – allow, the world will start warming again. Who knew?

38) Trenberth’s “missing heat” is hiding in the Atlantic, not Pacific as Trenberth claimed
[debunked] [Dr. Curry’s take] [Author: “Every week there’s a new explanation of the hiatus”]

39) “Slowdown” due to “a delayed rebound effect from 1991 Mount Pinatubo aerosols and deep prolonged solar minimum”

40) The “pause” is “probably just barely statistically significant” with 95% confidence:The “slowdown” is “probably just barely statistically significant” and not “meaningful in terms of the public discourse about climate change”

41) Internal variability, because Chinese aerosols can either warm or cool the climate:

The “recent hiatus in global warming is mainly caused by internal variability of the climate” because “anthropogenic aerosol emissions from Europe and North America towards China and India between 1996 and 2010 has surprisingly warmed rather than cooled the global climate.”

[Before this new paper, anthropogenic aerosols were thought to cool the climate or to have minimal effects on climate, but as of now, they “surprisingly warm” the climate]
42) Trenberth’s ‘missing heat’ really is missing and is not “supported by the data itself” in the “real ocean”:

“it is not clear to me, actually, that an accelerated warming of some…layer of the ocean … is robustly supported by the data itself. Until we clear up whether there has been some kind of accelerated warming at depth in the real ocean, I think these results serve as interesting hypotheses about why the rate of surface warming has slowed-down, but we still lack a definitive answer on this topic.” [Josh Willis]

43) Ocean Variability: [NYT article]

“After some intense work by of the community, there is general agreement that the main driver [of climate the “pause”] is ocean variability. That’s actually quite impressive progress.” [Andrew Dessler]

44) The data showing the missing heat going into the oceans is robust and not robust:

” I think the findings that the heat is going into the Atlantic and Southern Ocean’s is probably pretty robust. However, I will defer to people like Josh Willis who know the data better than I do.”-Andrew Dessler. Debunked by Josh Willis, who Dessler says “knows the data better than I do,” says in the very same NYT article that “it is not clear to me, actually, that an accelerated warming of some…layer of the ocean … is robustly supported by the data itself” – [Josh Willis]
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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #58 - Jul 10th, 2015 at 7:40pm
 
45) We don’t have a theory that fits all of the data:

“Ultimately, the challenge is to come up with the parsimonious theory [of the ‘pause’] that fits all of the data” [Andrew Dessler]

46) We don’t have enough data of natural climate cycles lasting 60-70 years to determine if the “pause” is due to such natural cycles:

“If the cycle has a period of 60-70 years, that means we have one or two cycles of observations. And I don’t think you can much about a cycle with just 1-2 cycles: e.g., what the actual period of the variability is, how regular it is, etc. You really need dozens of cycles to determine what the actual underlying variability looks like. In fact, I don’t think we even know if it IS a cycle.” [Andrew Dessler]

47) Could be pure internal [natural] variability or increased CO2 or both

“this brings up what to me is the real question: how much of the hiatus is pure internal variability and how much is a forced response (from loading the atmosphere with carbon). This paper seems to implicitly take the position that it’s purely internal variability, which I’m not sure is true and might lead to a very different interpretation of the data and estimate of the future.” [Andrew Dessler in an NYT article ]

48) Its either in the Atlantic or Pacific, but definitely not a statistical fluke:

It’s the Atlantic, not Pacific, and “the hiatus in the warming…should not be dismissed as a statistical fluke” [John Michael Wallace]

49) The other papers with excuses for the “pause” are not “science done right”:

” If the science is done right, the calculated uncertainty takes account of this background variation. But none of these papers, Tung, or Trenberth, does that. Overlain on top of this natural behavior is the small, and often shaky, observing systems, both atmosphere and ocean where the shifting places and times and technologies must also produce a change even if none actually occurred. The “hiatus” is likely real, but so what? The fuss is mainly about normal behavior of the climate system.” [Carl Wunsch]

50) The observational data we have is inadequate, but we ignore uncertainty to publish anyway: [Carl Wunsch in an NYT Article]

“The central problem of climate science is to ask what you do and say when your data are, by almost any standard, inadequate? If I spend three years analyzing my data, and the only defensible inference is that “the data are inadequate to answer the question,” how do you publish? How do you get your grant renewed? A common answer is to distort the calculation of the uncertainty, or ignore it all together, and proclaim an exciting story that the New York Times will pick up…How many such stories have been withdrawn years later when enough adequate data became available?”

51) If our models could time-travel back in time, “we could have forecast ‘the pause’ – if we had the tools of the future back then” [NCAR press release]

[Time-traveling, back-to-the-future models debunked] [debunked] [“pause” due to natural variability]

52) ‘Unusual climate anomaly’ of unprecedented deceleration of a secular warming trend [PLOS one Paper macia et al. discussed in European Commission news release here.]

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Very_Vinnie
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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #59 - Jul 10th, 2015 at 7:40pm
 
longweekend58 wrote on Jul 10th, 2015 at 9:59am:
Very_Vinnie wrote on Jul 9th, 2015 at 8:28pm:
Quote:
...  the effect will be offset by recent global warming
*
...




*
... Indicating - and a confirmation - that factors increasing global average temperatures remain a CONSTANT

So much for "Professor" David Rose's claim of "no rise in global average temperatures in 20 years" - when each year has STILL broken the record held by the previous year, more often than NOT







that is complete garbage.  the FACT is that the last 18 years has had no statistically valid change in temperature.




This fits in well with the "tin-foil hat theory" that N.A.S.A., the B.O.M. and the M.E.T. have secretly joined forces with the many nations of the world that are represented by their top climate scientists on the I.P.C.C. - with the devious plot to jointly falsify average global temperatures spanning the last two decades   



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There are those that look at things the way they are, and ask why?
I dream of things that never were, and ask why not?


- Robert Francis Kennedy
 
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