Australian Politics Forum - Little Ice Age imminent?

Swagman Gold Member Offline Beware of cheap imitations...... Posts: 15095 Illawarra NSW Gender:	Re: Little Ice Age imminent? Reply #60 - Jul 10^th, 2015 at 9:05pm http://www.9news.com.au/national/2015/07/10/11/32/snow-forecast-for-qld-as-cold-... ...hopefully it kills all the toads.......
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Very_Vinnie

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #61 - Jul 11^th, 2015 at 1:25pm

Very_Vinnie wrote on Jul 10^th, 2015 at 7:40pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 10^th, 2015 at 9:59am:

Very_Vinnie wrote on Jul 9^th, 2015 at 8:28pm:

Quote:

... the effect will be offset by recent global warming
*
...

*
... Indicating - and a confirmation - that factors increasing global average temperatures remain a CONSTANT

So much for "Professor" David Rose's claim of "no rise in global average temperatures in 20 years" - when each year has STILL broken the record held by the previous year, more often than NOT

that is complete garbage. the FACT is that the last 18 years has had no statistically valid change in temperature.

This fits in well with the "tin-foil hat theory" that N.A.S.A., the B.O.M. and the M.E.T. have secretly joined forces with the many nations of the world that are represented by their top climate scientists on the I.P.C.C. - with the devious plot to jointly falsify average global temperatures spanning the last two decades

Can ANYONE explain how global average temperature records were broken - over a twenty year period that saw no rise in global average temperatures ?

(conspiracy theories, aside)

.

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There are those that look at things the way they are, and ask why?
I dream of things that never were, and ask why not?

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Swagman Gold Member Offline Beware of cheap imitations...... Posts: 15095 Illawarra NSW Gender:	Re: Little Ice Age imminent? Reply #62 - Jul 11^th, 2015 at 1:33pm *Natural* climate fluctuations
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 18065 Gender:	Re: Little Ice Age imminent? Reply #63 - Jul 11^th, 2015 at 1:34pm Well BOM had over 200 recordings that had overnight temperatures higher than the same day maximum. But that was only after homogenisation. It wasn't in the raw data.
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bogarde73

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #64 - Jul 11^th, 2015 at 1:49pm

The Little Ice Age of the 17th century (variously stated as being 1590 -, 1620-, 1640-1715) is thought to have contributed to a reduction of the world's population by a third.

They didn't all die of cold. But the failure of many harvests contributed to unrest and brutal wars around the world, along with religious disputes & plague. The Thirty Years War in Germany, revolutions & civil war in Britain, France, the Ottoman Empire and China were among the worst.

Strangely it seems there was a coincidence with the invention of Galileo's telescope and the observation of sunspots. Up to 1640 these were regularly observed and then suddenly ceased to appear until, I think, around 1680.

Any major or significant climatic change would be likely to cause ruptures in society. Wasn't there an upsurge in internal strife in England during a hot period in the early middle ages.

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Know the enemies of a civil society by their public behaviour, by their fraudulent claim to be liberal-progressive, by their propensity to lie and, above all, by their attachment to authoritarianism.

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Swagman Gold Member Offline Beware of cheap imitations...... Posts: 15095 Illawarra NSW Gender:	Re: Little Ice Age imminent? Reply #65 - Jul 11^th, 2015 at 9:10pm bogarde73 wrote on Jul 11^th, 2015 at 1:49pm: Strangely it seems there was a coincidence with the invention of Galileo's telescope and the observation of sunspots. Up to 1640 these were regularly observed and then suddenly ceased to appear until, I think, around 1680 The Maunder Minimum between 1645 and 1715
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President Elect, The Mechanic Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 17501 Gender:	Re: Little Ice Age imminent? Reply #66 - Jul 11^th, 2015 at 9:34pm I know it seems like the coldest year on record.. but really gentlemen.. its been the hottest year ever because of us scientist are sure the heat is hidden under the sea because heat sinks and not rises as popular theory might say... yep.. global warming is alive and well..
Back to top	Q The STORM has arrived Every Dog Has Its Day... Dark to Light. Sheep no more. IP Logged

The_Barnacle

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #67 - Jul 12^th, 2015 at 10:56am

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 10^th, 2015 at 10:02am:

The_Barnacle wrote on Jul 9^th, 2015 at 10:17pm:

All things being equal, if you increase the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere you will produce warming. That is pretty basic science.

Except it isnt true or that simple. CO2 concentration shave been increasing in the last 20 years and yet temperature has not. That conclusively disproves the theory of a linear simplistic relationship.

No it doesn't. The reason there hasn't been a simplistic linear increase in temperature is that there are a lot of other variables. But the TREND is that temperatures are increasing.

You go on about "statistically insignificant" increases but you ignore the fact that 18 years is statistically insignificant when you are talking about global climate change over many decades. You also conveniently ignore the cherry picking of 1998 as the aledged start of the pause which was a year of unprecedented el nino inspired warming.

And then you have the cheek to join the tin foil hat brigade and claim there is some massive conspiracy theory amongst all the world scientists.

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Rider

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #68 - Jul 12^th, 2015 at 11:16am

lee wrote on Jul 11^th, 2015 at 1:34pm:

Well BOM had over 200 recordings that had overnight temperatures higher than the same day maximum.

But that was only after homogenisation. It wasn't in the raw data.

So Raw data + homogenization (selective sampling) = New Records.

Got it. No grounds for suspicion there.......No conspiracy theory required.

Simple fraud to maintain and / or enhance their tax payer funded budgets.

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The_Barnacle

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #69 - Jul 12^th, 2015 at 11:59am

lee wrote on Jul 11^th, 2015 at 1:34pm:

Well BOM had over 200 recordings that had overnight temperatures higher than the same day maximum.

But that was only after homogenisation. It wasn't in the raw data.

That's quote an extraordinary claim Lee.
Do you have even the slightest evidence to back that up?
Otherwise I'm calling BS

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Very_Vinnie

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #70 - Jul 12^th, 2015 at 12:13pm

The_Barnacle wrote on Jul 12^th, 2015 at 10:56am:

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 10^th, 2015 at 10:02am:

The_Barnacle wrote on Jul 9^th, 2015 at 10:17pm:

All things being equal, if you increase the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere you will produce warming. That is pretty basic science.

Except it isnt true or that simple. CO2 concentrations have been increasing in the last 20 years and yet temperature has not. That conclusively disproves the theory of a linear simplistic relationship.

No it doesn't. The reason there hasn't been a simplistic linear increase in temperature is that there are a lot of other variables. But the TREND is that temperatures are increasing.

You go on about "statistically insignificant" increases but you ignore the fact that 18 years is statistically insignificant when you are talking about global climate change over many decades. You also conveniently ignore the cherry picking of 1998 as the aledged start of the pause which was a year of unprecedented el nino inspired warming.

And then you have the cheek to join the tin foil hat brigade and claim there is some massive conspiracy theory amongst all the world scientists.

January 22, 2015, 10:28 PST

The 10 warmest years: Not exactly forever ago

Last week NASA and NOAA announced that 2014 topped the list of hottest years ever recorded.
What’s worse, the ten warmest years ever recorded have all occurred since 1998.

http://climate.nasa.gov/blog/2224

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« Last Edit: Jul 12^th, 2015 at 12:20pm by Very_Vinnie »

There are those that look at things the way they are, and ask why?
I dream of things that never were, and ask why not?

- Robert Francis Kennedy

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gizmo_2655

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #71 - Jul 12^th, 2015 at 1:43pm

Very_Vinnie wrote on Jul 12^th, 2015 at 12:13pm:

The_Barnacle wrote on Jul 12^th, 2015 at 10:56am:

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 10^th, 2015 at 10:02am:

The_Barnacle wrote on Jul 9^th, 2015 at 10:17pm:

All things being equal, if you increase the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere you will produce warming. That is pretty basic science.

Except it isnt true or that simple. CO2 concentrations have been increasing in the last 20 years and yet temperature has not. That conclusively disproves the theory of a linear simplistic relationship.

No it doesn't. The reason there hasn't been a simplistic linear increase in temperature is that there are a lot of other variables. But the TREND is that temperatures are increasing.

You go on about "statistically insignificant" increases but you ignore the fact that 18 years is statistically insignificant when you are talking about global climate change over many decades. You also conveniently ignore the cherry picking of 1998 as the aledged start of the pause which was a year of unprecedented el nino inspired warming.

And then you have the cheek to join the tin foil hat brigade and claim there is some massive conspiracy theory amongst all the world scientists.

January 22, 2015, 10:28 PST

The 10 warmest years: Not exactly forever ago

Last week NASA and NOAA announced that 2014 topped the list of hottest years ever recorded.
What’s worse, the ten warmest years [highlight]ever recorded have all occurred since 1998.[/highlight]

http://climate.nasa.gov/blog/2224

And???

Even if the warming is natural (which it most likely is), it would make perfect sense that the temperatures would be generally cooler (allowing for natural 'peaks and valleys') the further back towards the LIA you check.

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"I just get sick of people who place a label on someone else with their own definition.

It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
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Ajax Gold Member Offline CO2 has never controlled temperature on Earth Posts: 10982 Australia Gender:	Re: Little Ice Age imminent? Reply #72 - Jul 12^th, 2015 at 2:05pm The Earth has been getting warmer BUT its not because man has been emitting CO2 into the atmosphere. AGW = mythology
Back to top	1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax 2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery & prison" Regas Feraeos IP Logged

Bobby. Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 107183 Melbourne Gender:	Re: Little Ice Age imminent? Reply #73 - Jul 12^th, 2015 at 2:54pm
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The_Barnacle

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #74 - Jul 13^th, 2015 at 11:00am

gizmo_2655 wrote on Jul 12^th, 2015 at 1:43pm:

Even if the warming is natural (which it most likely is),

Ajax wrote on Jul 12^th, 2015 at 2:05pm:

The Earth has been getting warmer BUT its not because man has been emitting CO2 into the atmosphere.

Well at least we are making progress. The skeptics are grudgingly admitting that the earth is warming.
Now all that is required is a basic chemistry lesson on how CO2 is a greenhouse gas and how 7 billion people burning fossil fuels will inevitably change the make up of the atmosphere.

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