Australian Politics Forum - Little Ice Age imminent?

Swagman Gold Member Offline Beware of cheap imitations...... Posts: 15095 Illawarra NSW Gender:	Re: Little Ice Age imminent? Reply #75 - Jul 13^th, 2015 at 11:35am The_Barnacle wrote on Jul 13^th, 2015 at 11:00am: The skeptics are grudgingly admitting that the earth is warming. ......off and on for 11,700 years or so give or take a few years
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Unforgiven

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You better rush there before ice disappears
Reply #76 - Jul 13^th, 2015 at 12:58pm

Geothermal heating under Antarctic ice sheet adds to the problems of ice melt.

http://www.newsquench.com/2015/07/scientists-find-evidence-of-geothermal-heating...

Quote:

Scientists find evidence of geothermal heating under Antarctic ice sheet

By Sam Catherman, NewsQuench | July 12, 2015

Scientists find evidence of geothermal heating under Antarctic ice sheet
Recent research has revealed evidence of geothermal heating from blow the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, which could be bad news amidst concerns of rising sea levels.

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet has been under recent fire from rising global temperatures, shedding much of its mass into the Southern Ocean in the form of liquid fresh water. According to a report from UPI, that’s not all the ice sheet needs to be concerned about – scientists have just detected a surprising amount of heat being applied to the ice from geothermal activity below.

Using a deep probe, scientists took measurements of the flow of heat in the sediments underneath the ice sheet. They were shocked to find that the amount of heat flowing upward from the crust was much higher than they expected.

Despite the heat given off by the ground below the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, the recent massive losses suffered by the top of sheet have little to do with geothermal activity.

According to professor Andrew Fisher of the University of Santa Cruz, the geothermal heat flux is nothing that the ice sheet hasn’t been dealing with since it formed.

Nonetheless, it could help explain why the ice sheet is so unstable on the top of the ground. Excess heat from sources like climate change can push the ice sheet around, but it seems to have been sitting on unstable ground the whole time.

The geothermal heat flux clocked in at 285 milliwatts per square meter, which is equivalent to the heat emitted by a single Christmas light each square meter.

The finding makes performing models on ice melt to predict how it might affect sea level rise all the more difficult, but it is an important factor to consider when assessing the risks posed by rising sea levels.

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“I’ll let you be in my dreams if I can be in yours” Bob Dylan

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gizmo_2655

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #77 - Jul 13^th, 2015 at 1:01pm

The_Barnacle wrote on Jul 13^th, 2015 at 11:00am:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Jul 12^th, 2015 at 1:43pm:

Even if the warming is natural (which it most likely is),

Ajax wrote on Jul 12^th, 2015 at 2:05pm:

The Earth has been getting warmer BUT its not because man has been emitting CO2 into the atmosphere.

Well at least we are making progress. The skeptics are grudgingly admitting that the earth is warming.
Now all that is required is a basic chemistry lesson on how CO2 is a greenhouse gas and how 7 billion people burning fossil fuels will inevitably change the make up of the atmosphere.

Sceptics have never denied that the Earth has warmed/is warming since the end of the Little Ice Age (that is, after all WHY the Little Ice Age ended). It's the CAUSE of the warming that us sceptics dispute.

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"I just get sick of people who place a label on someone else with their own definition.

It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
Bobbythebat

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red baron Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 10204 Blue Mountains Gender:	Re: Little Ice Age imminent? Reply #78 - Jul 13^th, 2015 at 2:29pm Very interesting post Swagman. Without the sun's solar flares, we are for the high jump.
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longweekend58

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #79 - Jul 13^th, 2015 at 3:01pm

Very_Vinnie wrote on Jul 11^th, 2015 at 1:25pm:

Very_Vinnie wrote on Jul 10^th, 2015 at 7:40pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 10^th, 2015 at 9:59am:

Very_Vinnie wrote on Jul 9^th, 2015 at 8:28pm:

Quote:

... the effect will be offset by recent global warming
*
...

*
... Indicating - and a confirmation - that factors increasing global average temperatures remain a CONSTANT

So much for "Professor" David Rose's claim of "no rise in global average temperatures in 20 years" - when each year has STILL broken the record held by the previous year, more often than NOT

that is complete garbage. the FACT is that the last 18 years has had no statistically valid change in temperature.

This fits in well with the "tin-foil hat theory" that N.A.S.A., the B.O.M. and the M.E.T. have secretly joined forces with the many nations of the world that are represented by their top climate scientists on the I.P.C.C. - with the devious plot to jointly falsify average global temperatures spanning the last two decades

Can ANYONE explain how global average temperature records were broken - over a twenty year period that saw no rise in global average temperatures ?

(conspiracy theories, aside)

.

simple. THEY WERENT.

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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longweekend58

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #80 - Jul 13^th, 2015 at 3:05pm

The_Barnacle wrote on Jul 12^th, 2015 at 10:56am:

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 10^th, 2015 at 10:02am:

The_Barnacle wrote on Jul 9^th, 2015 at 10:17pm:

All things being equal, if you increase the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere you will produce warming. That is pretty basic science.

Except it isnt true or that simple. CO2 concentration shave been increasing in the last 20 years and yet temperature has not. That conclusively disproves the theory of a linear simplistic relationship.

No it doesn't. The reason there hasn't been a simplistic linear increase in temperature is that there are a lot of other variables. But the TREND is that temperatures are increasing.

You go on about "statistically insignificant" increases but you ignore the fact that 18 years is statistically insignificant when you are talking about global climate change over many decades. You also conveniently ignore the cherry picking of 1998 as the aledged start of the pause which was a year of unprecedented el nino inspired warming.

And then you have the cheek to join the tin foil hat brigade and claim there is some massive conspiracy theory amongst all the world scientists.

do you realise that in a sentence denying my post you actually confirmed that there is no linear relationship? You complain about cherry-picking when it is no such thing. It doesnt matter when you choose the start date. the last 18 years show no increase in temperatures. The fact you are unwilling or unable to accept that indicates the depth of your religious mania regarding climate change.

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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longweekend58

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #81 - Jul 13^th, 2015 at 3:09pm

Very_Vinnie wrote on Jul 12^th, 2015 at 12:13pm:

The_Barnacle wrote on Jul 12^th, 2015 at 10:56am:

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 10^th, 2015 at 10:02am:

The_Barnacle wrote on Jul 9^th, 2015 at 10:17pm:

All things being equal, if you increase the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere you will produce warming. That is pretty basic science.

Except it isnt true or that simple. CO2 concentrations have been increasing in the last 20 years and yet temperature has not. That conclusively disproves the theory of a linear simplistic relationship.

No it doesn't. The reason there hasn't been a simplistic linear increase in temperature is that there are a lot of other variables. But the TREND is that temperatures are increasing.

You go on about "statistically insignificant" increases but you ignore the fact that 18 years is statistically insignificant when you are talking about global climate change over many decades. You also conveniently ignore the cherry picking of 1998 as the aledged start of the pause which was a year of unprecedented el nino inspired warming.

And then you have the cheek to join the tin foil hat brigade and claim there is some massive conspiracy theory amongst all the world scientists.

January 22, 2015, 10:28 PST

The 10 warmest years: Not exactly forever ago

Last week NASA and NOAA announced that 2014 topped the list of hottest years ever recorded.
What’s worse, the ten warmest years ever recorded have all occurred since 1998.

http://climate.nasa.gov/blog/2224

quite the lie actually. 2014 had an increase of 0.05 degrees with an error margin of +/-0.1 degrees. this is why it is called 'statistically insignificant'. And your use of 'average is what allows you to lie with such impunity. the temperatures could remain constant for the next 50 years and still be 'higher than the 20th average'. get the point yet? no? well try this one. 'last year showed no change from the average temperature of the last 20 years'. it is just as accurate and yet the message is different? Could it be that you have no idea what a running average is? Could it explain why a car can have an average speed of 100km/hr over a journey and be stationary right now?

idiot.
simpleton.

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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longweekend58

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #82 - Jul 13^th, 2015 at 3:10pm

The_Barnacle wrote on Jul 13^th, 2015 at 11:00am:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Jul 12^th, 2015 at 1:43pm:

Even if the warming is natural (which it most likely is),

Ajax wrote on Jul 12^th, 2015 at 2:05pm:

The Earth has been getting warmer BUT its not because man has been emitting CO2 into the atmosphere.

Well at least we are making progress. The skeptics are grudgingly admitting that the earth is warming.
Now all that is required is a basic chemistry lesson on how CO2 is a greenhouse gas and how 7 billion people burning fossil fuels will inevitably change the make up of the atmosphere.

then you can answer why in 20 years the CO2 concentration has increased but temperatures have not.

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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red baron Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 10204 Blue Mountains Gender:	Re: Little Ice Age imminent? Reply #83 - Jul 13^th, 2015 at 3:42pm Well everyone can relax because humans will eat burn and devour everything eventually, then we will become extinct then in a million or so years the earth will heal itself.
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Unforgiven

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #84 - Jul 13^th, 2015 at 4:04pm

red baron wrote on Jul 13^th, 2015 at 3:42pm:

Well everyone can relax because humans will eat burn and devour everything eventually, then we will become extinct then in a million or so years the earth will heal itself.

Future Palaentologist will find Red Baron's remains embedded in a piece of rock beside the remains of its droopy flagpole and then announce I found the cause of the disintegration of 3rd millennium society.

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“I’ll let you be in my dreams if I can be in yours” Bob Dylan

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longweekend58

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #85 - Jul 13^th, 2015 at 5:49pm

Unforgiven wrote on Jul 13^th, 2015 at 4:04pm:

red baron wrote on Jul 13^th, 2015 at 3:42pm:

Well everyone can relax because humans will eat burn and devour everything eventually, then we will become extinct then in a million or so years the earth will heal itself.

Future Palaentologist will find Red Baron's remains embedded in a piece of rock beside the remains of its droopy flagpole and then announce I found the cause of the disintegration of 3rd millennium society.

So I see you cannot refute my statement about Co2 not being a driver of warming.

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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Baronvonrort

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #86 - Jul 13^th, 2015 at 6:01pm

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 9^th, 2015 at 1:51pm:

Sir lastnail wrote on Jul 9^th, 2015 at 10:37am:

And India was definitely having one of the worst heatwaves with 50 degrees temperatures and 1000 people dying !!!

If it was a mini ice age then you would expect all temperatures across the globe to be dropping with none of these heatwaves !!

adelaide is having its coldest winter in a long time and this weekend expected to go well below zero. record cold.

but that doesnt count right? because it is just 'weather' while the heatwaves are difference?

btw do your maths. 1000 indians dying of heat is the same ratio as one dying from heat in adelaide - which happens every 45 degree day.

If you look at the statistics from deaths due to cold or hot weather it's clear cold weather kills far more than hot weather.

Geologists will tell you the earth has always cycled between Icehouse and Greenhouse,perhaps that explains why they find intact fish fossils on the side of hills and mountains.

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Leftists and the Ayatollahs have a lot in common when it comes to criticism of Islam, they don't tolerate it.

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Baronvonrort Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 18855 Gender:	Re: Little Ice Age imminent? Reply #87 - Jul 13^th, 2015 at 6:03pm Glitch caused dp
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longweekend58

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Re: Little Ice Age imminent?
Reply #88 - Jul 22^nd, 2015 at 6:48pm

Baronvonrort wrote on Jul 13^th, 2015 at 6:01pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 9^th, 2015 at 1:51pm:

Sir lastnail wrote on Jul 9^th, 2015 at 10:37am:

And India was definitely having one of the worst heatwaves with 50 degrees temperatures and 1000 people dying !!!

If it was a mini ice age then you would expect all temperatures across the globe to be dropping with none of these heatwaves !!

adelaide is having its coldest winter in a long time and this weekend expected to go well below zero. record cold.

but that doesnt count right? because it is just 'weather' while the heatwaves are difference?

btw do your maths. 1000 indians dying of heat is the same ratio as one dying from heat in adelaide - which happens every 45 degree day.

If you look at the statistics from deaths due to cold or hot weather it's clear cold weather kills far more than hot weather.

Geologists will tell you the earth has always cycled between Icehouse and Greenhouse,perhaps that explains why they find intact fish fossils on the side of hills and mountains.

dont confuse them with facts and logic.

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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____ Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 33410 Australia Gender:	Re: Little Ice Age imminent? Reply #89 - Jul 22^nd, 2015 at 6:56pm Orbit eccentricity, axial tilt, and precession of the Earth's orbit determined climatic patterns on Earth through orbital forcing. The next ice age possible, when all three are in 'the zone' when an ice age is possible is in 60,000 years. Nothing happening in this thread.
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