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The Myth of the 97% consensus claim (Read 38129 times)
lee
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Re: The Myth of the 97% consensus claim
Reply #210 - Aug 29th, 2015 at 2:52pm
 
Unforgiven wrote on Aug 29th, 2015 at 2:29pm:
The "them" who refuses to understand is lee.



So sad that you do not understand "scientific understanding" comes from scientists.
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Soren
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Re: The Myth of the 97% consensus claim
Reply #211 - Aug 29th, 2015 at 4:03pm
 
Unforgiven wrote on Aug 29th, 2015 at 2:22pm:
lee wrote on Aug 29th, 2015 at 2:20pm:
Unforgiven wrote on Aug 29th, 2015 at 11:00am:
Scientific understanding of global warming is increasing.



You do note that they don't say that global warming is understood?


True. They are not getting through to the unprofessional stooge deniers.



It is people like you, who imagine that they can calibrate the climate and set at some optimum, are the real climate change deniers. You deny that the climate changes due to forces much, much bigger than any human influence. You think you can control global climate - you are the real climate change deniers.

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Re: The Myth of the 97% consensus claim
Reply #212 - Aug 29th, 2015 at 5:03pm
 
Soren wrote on Aug 29th, 2015 at 4:03pm:
It is people like you, who imagine that they can calibrate the climate and set at some optimum, are the real climate change deniers. You deny that the climate changes due to forces much, much bigger than any human influence. You think you can control global climate - you are the real climate change deniers.


It is very fortunate that human influence is so small that we are only talking about a few degrees change, otherwise humanity would already be extinct  by its own greed.
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ImSpartacus2
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Re: The Myth of the 97% consensus claim
Reply #213 - Aug 29th, 2015 at 8:17pm
 
mariacostel wrote on Aug 28th, 2015 at 12:41pm:
ImSpartacus2 said
" I have yet to see an argument prepared and cut and pasted here by the minions of AGW denialist lobby that is even remotely logical or credible. There only purpose is to misinform, confuse and delay action to protect the only accessible environment in the universe that is capable of supporting human life."

And it is that kind of statement which discredits you more than anything else you could have said. To claim that nothing from the other side has ever been credible or logical indicates you have no understanding of the topic or any topic for that matter. Nothing is ever that clear-cut. And that is why you fall for the 97% consensus con - because it suits your non-thinking ideology.



Perhaps I wasn't clear. What I intended to convey was that
I have yet to see an argument prepared and cut and pasted here by the minions of AGW denialist lobby that is even remotely logical or credible. Their only purpose is to misinform, confuse and delay action to protect the only accessible environment in the universe that is capable of supporting human life . 
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ImSpartacus2
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Re: The Myth of the 97% consensus claim
Reply #214 - Aug 29th, 2015 at 8:28pm
 
Ajax wrote on Aug 29th, 2015 at 10:34am:
There's 3 types of people on this Earth,

1. The Sheep, believe and do what the experts tell them.

2. The Dogs, question everything the experts tell them and research, argue and deny the experts when its appropriate to do so.

3. The Wolves, they are the experts.


You forgot (4) The socks who sellout humanity to spread propaganda for their wealthy organ grinders in exchange for a few paltry pennies.
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Re: The Myth of the 97% consensus claim
Reply #215 - Aug 29th, 2015 at 8:31pm
 
ImSpartacus2 wrote on Aug 29th, 2015 at 8:28pm:
You forgot (4) The socks who sellout humanity to spread propaganda for their wealthy organ grinders in exchange for a few paltry pennies.



You forgot trolls like you, in the pay of the green left. After all they spend the most money on climate change. What is the budget of Grrenpiss these days?
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ImSpartacus2
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Re: The Myth of the 97% consensus claim
Reply #216 - Aug 29th, 2015 at 8:44pm
 
lee wrote on Aug 29th, 2015 at 8:31pm:
ImSpartacus2 wrote on Aug 29th, 2015 at 8:28pm:
You forgot (4) The socks who sellout humanity to spread propaganda for their wealthy organ grinders in exchange for a few paltry pennies.



You forgot trolls like you, in the pay of the green left. After all they spend the most money on climate change. What is the budget of Grrenpiss these days?
All made up because I picked you for the despicable sock that you are. What qualifications do you have in climate science? Any at all? Even a skerrick???? Answer the question 
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lee
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Re: The Myth of the 97% consensus claim
Reply #217 - Aug 29th, 2015 at 8:50pm
 
ImSpartacus2 wrote on Aug 29th, 2015 at 8:44pm:
All made up because I picked you for the despicable sock that you are. What qualifications do you have in climate science? Any at all? Even a skerrick???? Answer the question 



Probably the same as you. However I have learned to read and comprehend. Something which appears beyond your ken.

Do you really believe that these "socks" exist or is it that it makes a wonderful,non-provable assumption? Answer the question.

I'll make it easy for you, I receive no payment for my views. 

Why don't you answer those things in the IPCC reports, that others insist do not exist? You are a FRAUD.
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ImSpartacus2
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Re: The Myth of the 97% consensus claim
Reply #218 - Aug 29th, 2015 at 9:09pm
 
lee wrote on Aug 29th, 2015 at 8:50pm:
ImSpartacus2 wrote on Aug 29th, 2015 at 8:44pm:
All made up because I picked you for the despicable sock that you are. What qualifications do you have in climate science? Any at all? Even a skerrick???? Answer the question 



Probably the same as you. However I have learned to read and comprehend. Something which appears beyond your ken.

Do you really believe that these "socks" exist or is it that it makes a wonderful,non-provable assumption? Answer the question.

I'll make it easy for you, I receive no payment for my views. 

Why don't you answer those things in the IPCC reports, that others insist do not exist? You are a FRAUD.
You did not answer the question.  Answer the question.  I rely on the advice of the experts. You on the other hand second guess the experts and even ridicule their views as if you could know and you have no knowledge in the subject other then what you cut and paste from climate denialist sites funded by the very people who stand to lose trillions as the world moves to renewable energy. 

I didn't ask you if you received money for your view. That was clearly an evasive answer. The real question is whether you accept money for attending sites like this and posting the garbage you cut and paste from AGW denialist sites but of course there's no way you will honestly answer that question.    
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Re: The Myth of the 97% consensus claim
Reply #219 - Aug 29th, 2015 at 10:13pm
 
mariacostel wrote on Aug 28th, 2015 at 12:41pm:
And it is that kind of statement which discredits you more than anything else you could have said. To claim that nothing from the other side has ever been credible or logical indicates you have no understanding of the topic or any topic for that matter. Nothing is ever that clear-cut. And that is why you fall for the 97% consensus con - because it suits your non-thinking ideology.



The problem with ideological extremists like you is that you genuinely believe you are a critical thinker. Yet the minute you encounter anything that might challenge your extreme ideology, critical thinking goes out the window. To think that all those scientists that validate AGW have not considered the other natural options is the sign of an arrogant ideologist that is truly ignorant of the subject matter. To think those scientists would not have investigated the work of other scientists that dispute AGW to see if they have a credible cause for the current state of the planet is another example of that arrogant ignorance. If those disputing AGW had another credible cause, why haven't climate scientist after climate scientist after climate scientist backed them up. They haven't because nobody has come up with a credible alternative to AGW that explains what's happening globally. Any ideological extremist can cherry pick or mine any scientific report to cobble together support for their stance. We see it all the time with creationists and racial supremacists. Critical thinkers however,don't just look at a report, they check out its references and comparisons with alternative explanations, to see if that report's conclusions have merit. You wear your ignorance like a badge of honour as you insult thousands of scientists around the world that have contributed in one way or another to our growing knowledge of AGW and its impacts. Its clear that like your fellow ideological extremists you are so ecologically challenged that you lack the intelligence to comprehend a climate change scientific report, let alone critically assess it. Yet here you are arrogantly dismissing the combined evidence from the cryosphere, the oceans and the climate itself. That arrogance is what makes you a fundamental ideological extremist as dangerous as any follower of ISIS. Whilst they are prepared to erase other civilisations past and present, you are among the many that see mass extinctions as just more externalities to ignore and the degradation of science itself as nothing more than collateral damage. Before you accuse others of non-thinking, take a look in the mirror. What you are looking at is a perfect example of a waste of an education.
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lee
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Re: The Myth of the 97% consensus claim
Reply #220 - Aug 29th, 2015 at 10:17pm
 
You really are hilarious. The only money I receive is super and old age pension.

So you rely on experts? LikeTom Karl? The one who put out the Karl et al (2015) paper?  The one that had a self-admitted statistical significance of 0.1?

I'll put it here again.

'Boldface indicates trends that are significant at the 0.10 significance level.  An asterisk notes that the trend is significant at the 0.10 level based on the uncertainty in the trend estimate using the IPCC methodology only. '

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/suppl/2015/06/03/science.aaa5632.DC1/Karl-SM.p...

You will notice this from from the published source Science Mag. A peer-reviewed magazine and the paper is also peer-reviewed.

Notes on statistical significance or p value-

'    A small p-value (typically ≤ 0.05) indicates strong evidence against the null hypothesis, so you reject the null hypothesis.

    A large p-value (> 0.05) indicates weak evidence against the null hypothesis, so you fail to reject the null hypothesis.

    p-values very close to the cutoff (0.05) are considered to be marginal (could go either way). Always report the p-value so your readers can draw their own conclusions.'

http://www.dummies.com/how-to/content/what-a-pvalue-tells-you-about-statistical-...

or perhaps something more your speed -

'To determine whether a result is statistically significant, a researcher would have to calculate a p-value, which is the probability of observing an effect given that the null hypothesis is true.[7] The null hypothesis is rejected if the p-value is less than the significance or α level. The α level is the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis given that it is true (type I error) and is most often set at 0.05 (5%). If the α level is 0.05, then the conditional probability of a type I error, given that the null hypothesis is true, is 5%.[22] Then a statistically significant result is one in which the observed p-value is less than 5%, which is formally written as p < 0.05.[22]'

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_significance

0.1 is twice the size of 0.05

Now Tom Karl is supposed to be a climate scientist, however he is no expert on statistics.

The Karl et al paper is now being used to adjust once again both NOOA and NASA temperatures.


This is one of the experts on which you rely.

As I said- I have the ability to read and comprehend.

Do you comprehend what I have written? What is your view of the Karl et al (2015) paper?

Don't hold back now.

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ImSpartacus2
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Re: The Myth of the 97% consensus claim
Reply #221 - Aug 29th, 2015 at 11:23pm
 
lee wrote on Aug 29th, 2015 at 10:17pm:
You really are hilarious. The only money I receive is super and old age pension.

So you rely on experts? LikeTom Karl? The one who put out the Karl et al (2015) paper?  The one that had a self-admitted statistical significance of 0.1?

I'll put it here again.

'Boldface indicates trends that are significant at the 0.10 significance level.  An asterisk notes that the trend is significant at the 0.10 level based on the uncertainty in the trend estimate using the IPCC methodology only. '

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/suppl/2015/06/03/science.aaa5632.DC1/Karl-SM.p...

You will notice this from from the published source Science Mag. A peer-reviewed magazine and the paper is also peer-reviewed.

Notes on statistical significance or p value-

'    A small p-value (typically ≤ 0.05) indicates strong evidence against the null hypothesis, so you reject the null hypothesis.

    A large p-value (> 0.05) indicates weak evidence against the null hypothesis, so you fail to reject the null hypothesis.

    p-values very close to the cutoff (0.05) are considered to be marginal (could go either way). Always report the p-value so your readers can draw their own conclusions.'

http://www.dummies.com/how-to/content/what-a-pvalue-tells-you-about-statistical-...

or perhaps something more your speed -

'To determine whether a result is statistically significant, a researcher would have to calculate a p-value, which is the probability of observing an effect given that the null hypothesis is true.[7] The null hypothesis is rejected if the p-value is less than the significance or α level. The α level is the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis given that it is true (type I error) and is most often set at 0.05 (5%). If the α level is 0.05, then the conditional probability of a type I error, given that the null hypothesis is true, is 5%.[22] Then a statistically significant result is one in which the observed p-value is less than 5%, which is formally written as p < 0.05.[22]'

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_significance

0.1 is twice the size of 0.05

Now Tom Karl is supposed to be a climate scientist, however he is no expert on statistics.

The Karl et al paper is now being used to adjust once again both NOOA and NASA temperatures.


This is one of the experts on which you rely.

As I said- I have the ability to read and comprehend.

Do you comprehend what I have written? What is your view of the Karl et al (2015) paper?

Don't hold back now.



You have no qualifications in the field, you have not compiled or even studied any of the data that has led the experts to conclude that AGW is happening and even if you did you couldn't understand it.  All you have is what you cut and paste from sites set up and paid for by people with a powerful motive to discredit the scientists. So that leaves you with two choices (1)Your a sock; deliberately stabbing your species in the back for a few pennies ; (2) Your so stupid and criminally irresponsible that despite the consequences that the scientists have said we face, you're prepared to take the risk and back your judgment over the 97% of the experts who have devoted their working life to the study of climate science.  Either way IMO your a contemptible "little" old man. What do you think. Which are you (1) or (2)? my Money's still on (1).      
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lee
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Re: The Myth of the 97% consensus claim
Reply #222 - Aug 30th, 2015 at 11:21am
 
ImSpartacus2 wrote on Aug 29th, 2015 at 11:23pm:
You have no qualifications in the field, you have not compiled or even studied any of the data that has led the experts to conclude that AGW is happening and even if you did you couldn't understand it.  All you have is what you cut and paste from sites set up and paid for by people with a powerful motive to discredit the scientists. So that leaves you with two choices (1)Your a sock; deliberately stabbing your species in the back for a few pennies ; (2) Your so stupid and criminally irresponsible that despite the consequences that the scientists have said we face, you're prepared to take the risk and back your judgment over the 97% of the experts who have devoted their working life to the study of climate science.  Either way IMO your a contemptible "little" old man. What do you think. Which are you (1) or (2)? my Money's still on (1).      



Wow I quote the paper the climate scientist wrote, with the reference. I show the very poor understanding of statistics he uses, with references; and yet you do not study the evidence. You merely engage in name calling.

Your is a belief system. Your climate scientists can never be wrong; they must be trusted implicitly.

No skin of my nose. It seems your intellect is impaired and you have no cognitive function.

I guess I was right; you are a fraud.
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Re: The Myth of the 97% consensus claim
Reply #223 - Aug 30th, 2015 at 12:02pm
 
lee wrote on Aug 30th, 2015 at 11:21am:
ImSpartacus2 wrote on Aug 29th, 2015 at 11:23pm:
You have no qualifications in the field, you have not compiled or even studied any of the data that has led the experts to conclude that AGW is happening and even if you did you couldn't understand it.  All you have is what you cut and paste from sites set up and paid for by people with a powerful motive to discredit the scientists. So that leaves you with two choices (1)Your a sock; deliberately stabbing your species in the back for a few pennies ; (2) Your so stupid and criminally irresponsible that despite the consequences that the scientists have said we face, you're prepared to take the risk and back your judgment over the 97% of the experts who have devoted their working life to the study of climate science.  Either way IMO your a contemptible "little" old man. What do you think. Which are you (1) or (2)? my Money's still on (1).      



Wow I quote the paper the climate scientist wrote, with the reference. I show the very poor understanding of statistics he uses, with references; and yet you do not study the evidence. You merely engage in name calling.

Your is a belief system. Your climate scientists can never be wrong; they must be trusted implicitly.

No skin of my nose. It seems your intellect is impaired and you have no cognitive function.

I guess I was right; you are a fraud.


Mr. lee you are a blatant liar with no skin left on your nose.

From your own reference the statistics are that the NOAA temperature is significant at the 0.1 confidence level.

Following is preamble to table S1 of lee's reference page 6.

The 90% confidence interval (derived from ݏ௧௥ 169 ) is
170 calculated using the IPCC methodology. In parentheses is a 90% confidence interval (derived
from ݏ௧௢௧ 171 ) which accounts for the uncertainty of trend estimation as well as additional error due
172 to the uncertainty of the underlying annual values in NOAA’s global temperature time series.
173 Boldface indicates trends that are significant at the 0.10 significance level. An asterisk notes that
174 the trend is significant at the 0.10 level based on the uncertainty in the trend estimate using the
175 IPCC methodology only.

lee is using blatant deceit as a debating tactic.
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« Last Edit: Aug 30th, 2015 at 12:11pm by Unforgiven »  

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lee
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Re: The Myth of the 97% consensus claim
Reply #224 - Aug 30th, 2015 at 12:10pm
 
Unforgiven wrote on Aug 30th, 2015 at 12:02pm:
Mr. lee you are a blatant liar with no skin left on your nose.

From your own reference the statistics are that the NOAA temperature is significant at the 0.1 confidence level.

The 90% confidence interval (derived from ݏ௧௥ 169 ) is
170 calculated using the IPCC methodology. In parentheses is a 90% confidence interval (derived
from ݏ௧௢௧ 171 ) which accounts for the uncertainty of trend estimation as well as additional error due
172 to the uncertainty of the underlying annual values in NOAA’s global temperature time series.
173 Boldface indicates trends that are significant at the 0.10 significance level. An asterisk notes that
174 the trend is significant at the 0.10 level based on the uncertainty in the trend estimate using the
175 IPCC methodology only.

lee is using blatant deceit as a debating tactic.



Do you understand the difference between "confidence level" and "significance level"?
'
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