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The Myth of the 97% consensus claim (Read 38034 times)
ImSpartacus2
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Re: The Myth of the 97% consensus claim
Reply #420 - Sep 8th, 2015 at 9:08pm
 
lee wrote on Sep 8th, 2015 at 8:58pm:
ImSpartacus2 wrote on Sep 8th, 2015 at 8:50pm:
Now I have reproduced my full quote (the blue bits are what you left out.  So hows about you answer the question Sock!!!


The question involves an allegation which is untrue. How can I answer something that is not true? I'm sure you have an answer, not meaningful, but an answer anyway.

Well I'm not the only one who has made this allegation.  In fact the allegation is very widely made and has been very widely publicised. So that being so one would think you would at least study the allegations and come to some conclusion about whether the sources you quote and cut and paste from are compromised. That's what someone who is not a sock would do.  So tell us, what research have you done on the subject and what conclusions have you come to about it.  


Did you enjoy Michael Mann's Climate Science qualifications? A geologist, fancy a geologist claiming to be a climate scientist.

Yes I did thank you very much, which is better then you would do



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lee
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Re: The Myth of the 97% consensus claim
Reply #421 - Sep 8th, 2015 at 9:15pm
 
ImSpartacus2 wrote at 8.28pm lee wrote on Sep 8th, 2015 at 8:36pm:
Oh lookie. This professor of geology doesn't agree with the climate scientists on climate science.



You may have deleted your own ignorant post, but it is there for posterity. Grin Grin Grin
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ImSpartacus2
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Re: The Myth of the 97% consensus claim
Reply #422 - Sep 8th, 2015 at 9:21pm
 
lee wrote on Sep 8th, 2015 at 9:15pm:
ImSpartacus2 wrote at 8.28pm lee wrote on Sep 8th, 2015 at 8:36pm:
Oh lookie. This professor of geology doesn't agree with the climate scientists on climate science.



You may have deleted your own ignorant post, but it is there for posterity.
I answered your question. Now, are you going to answer mine. Of course not. Why not? Simple, your a sock. You know full well that you get all  your arguments and do all your bodgie cutting and pasting from compromised sites and you don't care because the truth is not your object. 
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lee
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Re: The Myth of the 97% consensus claim
Reply #423 - Sep 8th, 2015 at 9:24pm
 
All right, I admit, IPCC chapter 9 is from a bodgy site.

it can be found here -

http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter09_FINAL.pdf
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ImSpartacus2
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Re: The Myth of the 97% consensus claim
Reply #424 - Sep 8th, 2015 at 9:35pm
 
lee wrote on Sep 8th, 2015 at 9:24pm:
All right, I admit, IPCC chapter 9 is from a bodgy site.

it can be found here -

http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter09_FINAL.pdf
Are you going to answer my question sock???
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lee
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Re: The Myth of the 97% consensus claim
Reply #425 - Sep 8th, 2015 at 9:57pm
 
Did that. This like fighting a one legged man in an arse kicking competition. Bye
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ImSpartacus2
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Re: The Myth of the 97% consensus claim
Reply #426 - Sep 8th, 2015 at 10:08pm
 
lee wrote on Sep 8th, 2015 at 9:57pm:
Did that. This like fighting a one legged man in an arse kicking competition. Bye


Yep. That was no surprise. Your a sock!!!!!!!
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Jovial Monk
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Re: The Myth of the 97% consensus claim
Reply #427 - Sep 9th, 2015 at 8:38am
 
Incredible that some still argue against AGW when it is here and now.
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Get the vaxx! 💉💉

If you don’t like abortions ignore them like you do school shootings.
 
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mariacostel
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Re: The Myth of the 97% consensus claim
Reply #428 - Sep 9th, 2015 at 8:47am
 
ImSpartacus2 wrote on Sep 8th, 2015 at 8:24pm:
mariacostel wrote on Sep 8th, 2015 at 6:18pm:
ImSpartacus2 wrote on Sep 8th, 2015 at 3:12pm:
mariacostel wrote on Sep 8th, 2015 at 9:18am:
ImSpartacus2 wrote on Sep 7th, 2015 at 8:00pm:
mariacostel wrote on Sep 7th, 2015 at 7:23pm:
lee wrote on Sep 7th, 2015 at 7:09pm:
Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 7th, 2015 at 7:06pm:
I quoted facts about AGW hitting real men on the land. No counterargument was offered.



You quoted facts (presumably), about Climate Change not AGW. The climate changes, now show AGW.


You will confuse him with such a distinction.

And Imafairy2 (great name!) has refused to answer if he still believes in the Hockey Stick - that worst example of fraudulent science in 100 years.
You didnt even ask that. I got no problem with answering that question. Of course I believe in the Hockey stick. What fool doesnt?   

Lets see how many lies Longy can pack into one and a half lines


almost no one in climate science believes in that fraud any more.
Total lie
IPCC has dumped it
Lie
and the book that was linked to earlier shows comments from 100 eminent climate scientists
Lie
from both sides of the debate stating that it is at best bad science
Lie
and a lot say it is utter fraud . AND THEY ARE ON YOUR SIDE OF THE DEBATE.
Lie


For anyone who wants to know the true state of the Hockey Stick contention (which is as strongly influential in real scientific circles as ever)you can start with this Wikipedia article (and no fossil fuel $$$ was taken in preparing this true account of the current state of play on the subject.   

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hockey_stick_controversy


You might have more success with your claims of 'lie' if you actually produced any evidence. The IPCC no longer uses the graph at all in any of in any of its reports or materials. And you dont know why?
Read the wikipedia article.You make up facts. It doesn't. Anyone who wants to inform themselves of this highly influential assessment of the sudden heating of the worlds climate couldn't commence with a better start then wikipedia.  Its doesn't take fossil fuel $$$$ like the snake oil sites you and Lee like to cut and paste from. 


So you want to ignore the views of 100 eminent scientists (including Phil Jones of the CRU) who say the Hockey stick is crap?

You are just a DENIER.
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mariacostel
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Re: The Myth of the 97% consensus claim
Reply #429 - Sep 9th, 2015 at 8:50am
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 9th, 2015 at 8:38am:
Incredible that some still argue against AGW when it is here and now.


Incredible that some argue FOR AGW when there has been no warming now for 18 years.
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Unforgiven
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Re: The Myth of the 97% consensus claim
Reply #430 - Sep 9th, 2015 at 9:25am
 
mariacostel wrote on Sep 9th, 2015 at 8:50am:
Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 9th, 2015 at 8:38am:
Incredible that some still argue against AGW when it is here and now.


Incredible that some argue FOR AGW when there has been no warming now for 18 years.


This appears very conclusive evidence of AGW. Please consider.

...
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“I’ll let you be in my dreams if I can be in yours” Bob Dylan
 
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mariacostel
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Re: The Myth of the 97% consensus claim
Reply #431 - Sep 9th, 2015 at 9:47am
 
Unforgiven wrote on Sep 9th, 2015 at 9:25am:
mariacostel wrote on Sep 9th, 2015 at 8:50am:
Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 9th, 2015 at 8:38am:
Incredible that some still argue against AGW when it is here and now.


Incredible that some argue FOR AGW when there has been no warming now for 18 years.


This appears very conclusive evidence of AGW. Please consider.

http://futurepath.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/770px-Instrumental_Temperature_...


Ironically it is the proof of the opposite. If you want to prove or disprove the claim of a pause in warming then produce a year-by-year graph of the last 18 years.
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ImSpartacus2
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Re: The Myth of the 97% consensus claim
Reply #432 - Sep 9th, 2015 at 10:31am
 
The year 2014 was Earth’s warmest in 134 years of records, according to an analysis of surface temperature measurements by NASA scientists. In a separate, independent analysis, scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration also found 2014 to be the warmest on record.

What follows is the first part of a Guardian article on recent scientific studies (not the self serving  fossil fuel industry hoax BS) that disprove the "myth" of the so called pause.   

"The Guardian, Karl Mathiesen, Friday 5 June 2015

Global Warming 'Pause' Didn't Happen, Study Finds


Reassessment of historical data and methodology by US research body debunks ‘hiatus’ hypothesis used by sceptics to undermine climate science

Global warming has not undergone a ‘pause’ or ‘hiatus’, according to US government research that undermines one of the key arguments used by sceptics to question climate science.

The new study reassessed the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) temperature record to account for changing methods of measuring the global surface temperature over the past century.

The adjustments to the data were slight, but removed a flattening of the graph this century that has led climate sceptics to claim the rise in global temperatures had stopped.

“There is no slowdown in warming, there is no hiatus,” said lead author Dr Tom Karl, who is the director of NOAA’s National Climatic Data Centre.

Dr Gavin Schmidt, a climatologist and the director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies said: “The fact that such small changes to the analysis make the difference between a hiatus or not merely underlines how fragile a concept it was in the first place.”

The results, published on Thursday in the journal Science, showed the rate of warming over the past 15 years (0.116C per decade) was almost exactly the same, in fact slightly higher, as the past five decades (0.113C per decade).

In 2013, the UN’s most comprehensive report on climate science made a tentative observation that the years since 1998 had seen a “much smaller increasing trend” than the preceding half century. The results highlighted the inadequacy of using the global mean surface temperature as the primary yardstick for climate change.

Karl said: “There’s been a lot of work done trying to understand the so-called hiatus and understand where is this missing heat.”

A series of studies have since identified a number of factors, including heat transferred into deep oceans and small volcanic eruptions, that affected the temperature at the surface of the Earth.
“Those studies are all quite valid and what they suggest is had those factors not occurred the warming rate would even be greater than what we report,” said Karl.

Dr Peter Stott, head of climate monitoring and attribution at the UK’s Met Office, said NOAA’s research was “robust” and mirrored an analysis the British team is conducting on its own surface temperature record. “Their work is consistent with independent work that we’ve done. It’s within our uncertainties. Part of the robustness and reliability of these records is that there are different groups around the world doing this work,” he said.

But Stott argued that the term slowdown remained valid because the past 15 years might have been still hotter were it not for natural variations.

In the coming years the world is expected to move out of a period in which the gradient of warming has not slowed even though the temperature has been moderated. This means “we could have 10 or 15 years of very rapid rates of warming,” he said.

“Even though the observed estimate is increased, over and above that there is plenty of evidence that the rate of warming is still being depressed,” he said. “The caution is around saying that that is our underlying warming rate, because the climate models are predicting substantially higher rates than that.”

NOAA’s historical observations were thrown out by unaccounted-for differences between the measurements taken by ships using buckets and ships using thermometers in their engine in-takes, the increased use of ocean buoys and a large increase in the number of land-based monitoring stations. “Science can only progress based on as much information as we have and what you see today is the most comprehensive assessment we can do based on all the information that’s been collected,” said Karl.

Schmidt called the new observations “state of the art” and said NASA had been in discussions with NOAA about how to incorporate the findings into their own global temperature record.

Prof Michael Mann, whose analysis of the global temperature in the 1990s revolutionised the field, said the work underlined the conclusions of his own recent research.

“They’ve sort of just confirmed what we already knew, there is no true ‘pause’ or ‘hiatus’ in warming,” he said. “To the extent that the study further drives home the fact ... that global warming continues unabated as we continue to burn fossil fuels and warm the planet, it is nonetheless a useful contribution to the literature.”

Bob Ward, policy and communications director at London’s Grantham Research Institute, said the news that warming had been greater than previously thought should cause governments currently meeting in Bonn to act with renewed urgency and lay foundations for a strong agreement at the pivotal climate conference in Paris this December.
(To be continued)
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ImSpartacus2
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Re: The Myth of the 97% consensus claim
Reply #433 - Sep 9th, 2015 at 10:33am
 
“The myth of the global warming pause has been heavily promoted by climate change sceptics seeking to undermine the case for strong and urgent cuts in greenhouse gas emissions,” said Ward.


Since scientists began to report a slower than expected rate of warming during the last decade, climate sceptics have latched on to the apparent dip in order to question the validity of climate models.

Last February, US Republican presidential candidate Ted Cruz told CNN: “The last 15 years, there has been no recorded warming. Contrary to all the theories that – that they are expounding, there should have been warming over the last 15 years. It hasn’t happened.”

Cruz’s rival for the Republican nomination, Jeb Bush, was using the pause to argue for inaction as early as 2009.

The Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF), the UK thinktank set up by Nigel Lawson to lobby against action on climate change and which hosts a flat-lining temperature graph on the masthead of its website, was dismissive of the study.

Dr David Whitehouse, an astrophysicist and science editor for the GWPF, said: “This is a highly speculative and slight paper that produces a statistically marginal result by cherry-picking time intervals.” He claimed the temperature graph was at odds with those of the Met Office and NASA, despite both organisations saying the new study’s results were consistent with their data.
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ImSpartacus2
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Re: The Myth of the 97% consensus claim
Reply #434 - Sep 9th, 2015 at 10:44am
 
Yes indeed. What most of us have suspected for a long time now is true. 

The global warming debate is no longer a scientific debate (indeed that debate was won by the scientists against the anti-scientists a long time ago), Its a political debate, fueled by the $$$$ of the fossil fuel industry who have a lot to lose if the world turns away from burning fossil fuels.

Indeed a year or so ago Longy (AKA Maria) admitted this at a time when he thought that it was actually a valid scientific argument to maintain that AGW cant be true because he did not believe in it ideologically.  I will need to dig out the thread that he opened to make just this point. 

So that's what we're confronting; not a scientific debate but a political debate.
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