I've seen a reference recently to China's GDP growth over the last 10 years as having been around 50% due to technology theft.
That is, they have built their export industries around a model that relies on stealing & piracy of intellectual property created by western nations, most notably the US & Germany, and then selling the finished product back into those markets.

Their internet hacking is said to be part of organised govt economic policy. Obama is due to raise this whole issue with the Chinese leadership - don't hold your breath for that one.

In other words, the reported GDP growth figures of 10-14% would actually be scaled back to half this level but for organised criminality.

From memory, not always reliable, China is not part of the TPP. Maybe the Americans had more than one reason to keep them out.
But should we have been so anxious to sign up to a FTA with people who operate and probably will continue to operate in this way?
I've always said not.

bogarde73 wrote on Sep 7^th, 2015 at 1:52pm:


Isn't that just a bit vague? What are China's main exports? Do they contravene copyrights? Actually, we don't want to know as long as they remain cheap. You have to admit those commies are pretty smart. After years of confrontation, they went back to Marx and asked "What do capitalists really want?" The answer was what commies have by the sh8t load; Cheap Labour.

Confirming what I said above and adding some other "volume" indicators being looked at in lieu of "value" numbers:

Don't believe the market fearmongers
Michael McCarthy/ Business Spectator
 
It’s the end of the financial world as we know it. Emerging market growth is tanking, the US Federal Reserve is bearish and market action is becoming increasingly erratic and inscrutable. It’s time to sell everything and hunker down behind the economic sandbags.

These are the takeaways from an increasingly hysterical news cycle. However, the numbers are pointing in the opposite direction, and investors with patience and strong nerves are finding opportunities in the market right now.

Here are three reasons to go against the current flow.

China fears are wildly overblown
A lot of the ‘analysis’ of the economy in China reads more like bias confirmation. A relentless focus on fixed investment and industrial production confirms the bias: the China growth miracle is a mirage and is about to implode. While these areas of the economy are weaker, this is more than offset by improvements in other sectors.

Passenger numbers, electricity usage and freight and cargo data are all on the increase in the Q3, directly contradicting the weakening economy scenario. Note the difference: these are volume measures, not value measures. Nominal data is affected by falls in prices as well as volumes.

Much of the data supporting the weaker China argument, such as import and export numbers, are currently weighed down by significantly lower commodity prices. The underlying volumes continue to show higher growth.

In other words, volume data shows the economy in China continues to expand at a rate that inspires envy around the globe. As this becomes apparent, and the nominal impact of lower commodity prices rolls off, there is likely to be a significant re-rating of China, and emerging market prospects generally. In turn, this should drive China exposed (i.e. Australian) shares higher.

Grappler Deep State Feller wrote on Sep 26^th, 2015 at 6:31am:


So, business as usual then!

Within 5 years China will have a GDP equal to or greater than USA if USA doesn't suffer a debt implosion in that time.

Within 25 years China will have double USA GDP .

China is currently the world's largest trading country in terms of total exports + imports. It will only get bigger.

Australia will suffer some shocks as China evolves and diversifies its import sources.

That's just so funny athos . I shouldn't laugh but I can't help it.