Bobby. wrote on Sep 18
th, 2015 at 7:16am:
Labor is toast - finished -
That is a really long bow to draw. Two polls around the mark for a hung Parliament with an election a year away doesn't offer much solace for either side. The Coalition in particular shouldn't get their hopes up. This is the honeymoon period for the Coalition, with Turnbull getting wall to wall coverage on all the media - even the ABC is biased towards him at the moment - so a bounce in the polls that favours the Coalition is inevitable.
Turnbull's major weakness is his refusal to repudiate the Abbott government's more unpopular policies. If the policies are crap, it doesn't matter much who the leader is.
Bobby. wrote on Sep 18
th, 2015 at 7:16am:
maybe the Greens will be the second party?
Not likely. The Greens may win a few more seats at the next election but that's still a long way from the 40 seats or so that they would need to have a realistic chance of being the major party in a coalition government, or the 76 seats that they need to govern in their own right.
Having said that, the Greens may gain seats in unexpected places. People are highlighting safe Labor seats as potential targets for the Greens, but the Greens' demographic of young wealthy urban professionals also takes in some safe Liberal seats such as Higgins (Vic). A recent poll in Higgins (pre-Abbott and taken by Labor so salt to taste) put the Greens and Liberals at 50-50 on preferences in Higgins with the Greens ahead of Labor on primaries.