Bam wrote on Sep 18
th, 2015 at 3:46pm:
mariacostel wrote on Sep 18
th, 2015 at 3:11pm:
Bam wrote on Sep 18
th, 2015 at 1:36pm:
I cannot believe the amount of circlejerking from the Coalition supporters about one single opinion poll. In the week that Turnbull replaces the abysmal Abbott, of course the opinion polls are going to swing towards the Coalition. How could they not? Abbott was one of the worst Prime Ministers this country has ever seen and he had to go. The government was chaotic and dysfunctional with Abbott in charge and any change had to be an improvement.
It is especially amusing how the usual suspects are predicting massive and unrealistic surges of support that is yet to occur. What's Turnbull going to do to earn that?
Turnbull is enjoying a polling honeymoon, but all such polling honeymoons must come to an end. If Turnbull starts being a disappointment on policies, it's going to end sooner than one might expect. I would wait and see how Turnbull performs.
The real test of Turnbull's leadership is how well he does in the next month.
ch as university fee deregulation, making young people wait for income support without any evidence to back this up, the so-called "Direct Action" waste of money and other such nonsense. If Turnbull doesn't repudiate these crocked policies, the Abbott-Turnbull government isn't going to be in the lead for long.
If it is premature to call victory then it is equally premature to call a mere 4 days as the end of the honeymoon.
Which I haven't done. It should be obvious that I'm more in the wait-and-see camp.
mariacostel wrote on Sep 18
th, 2015 at 3:11pm:
At this rate, the Coalition are COMFORTABLY in the lead
51-49 on one poll and 50-50 on another is not a comfortable lead. That's hung Parliament territory.
mariacostel wrote on Sep 18
th, 2015 at 3:11pm:
and likely to extend it.
There has been nothing so far to indicate this. Turnbull's already demonstrated weakness by retaining unpopular Coalition policies. If the Abbott-led Coalition's poor standing in the polls had a policy component to it, Turnbull's standing is not going to improve much, if at all.
mariacostel wrote on Sep 18
th, 2015 at 3:11pm:
Given the utter dross that Labor has on offer the chance of a fightback from them is nil.
The two opinion polls that have come out have been 50-50 and a narrow Coalition lead of 51-49. It is far too early to be making predictions of this kind, and it has a distinct air of wishful thinking.
When Napthine replaced the disappointing Baillieu in Victoria, Napthine recorded a similar bounce in the polls. He got to 50-50 in the April 2013 Newspoll and was in front 51-49 in the June 2013 Newspoll. He lost the election.
It is rash to be making predictions in the honeymoon stage with Turnbull in the job less than a week. It would take two or three months before the polls settle down and we can be confident. Even Abbott retained a poll lead for two months before the polling went sour for the Coalition.
mariacostel wrote on Sep 18
th, 2015 at 3:11pm:
I still predict a December early election with the off-chance of a Double Dissolution.
I don't know where you're getting this "still predicting a December election" rubbish from. You were predicting a
July election two or three days ago.
I was predicting either a July or December election which would be why the forum loons jumped on the fact I said December and not December 2015 - as if there was an alternative interpretation.
The difference between Victoria and the Federal sphere is that Shorten is arguably the worst labor leader of all time leading a very low quality front bench and hamstrung with guaranteed vote-losing policies such as a new Carbon Tax and their rather obvious wishy-washy Boat People policy. When the polls hit 49/51 some months ago there was a lot of excitement in Liberal circles (at least in Sydney and in my branch) because everyone knew that in an actual election we could bump our polls at least 2% very quickly in a campaign. Or more. Shorten is a horrid communicator and generally loathed by everyone including labor people
This is not an Andrews Opposition. This is the weakest and most compromised labor opposition in many decades. It was privately assessed that evenAbbott could beat them from 48-52 down. Turnbull would eat Shorten alive from there, except he would be starting the other way - around 52-48.
Yes, it is early days yet, but the honeymoon bounce is more than mere sugar-rush as some have stated. It has long been acknowledged (if not openly) that there were a lot of people just
looking for a reason to dump Labor and Tony was an impediment to that decision. Now he is gone, some have already jumped over and we believe privately that there are a great number more waiting to jump still. All Turnbull has to do is to do well and not stuff up and there are droves of labor voters ready to move.
51/49 is the best Labor will see this term.
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