mariacostel wrote on Sep 18^th, 2015 at 4:30pm:


So how bad does that make Abbott? He has been behind in the polls for months.
But he was the worst PM of all time.

I have to admit that I have been caught up in the euphoria of the ousting of Tony Abbott. I would vote for a Liberal Government under Turnbull with his more centralist and "small l" liberal policies.

I Watch with interest how the right wing conservative side of the Coalition react however and I already notice that the Murdoch press have turned against Turnbull.

These are interesting times

mariacostel wrote on Sep 18^th, 2015 at 4:30pm:

December 2015 and December 2016 are both valid months in which the next election can be called.

mariacostel wrote on Sep 18^th, 2015 at 4:30pm:

That's a very biased assessment. Shorten was smashing Abbott in the polls and Turnbull has only managed to draw even. If Shorten was a bad leader his party would not have been able to do this.

mariacostel wrote on Sep 18^th, 2015 at 4:30pm:

Liberal party circlejerking in action. What happened since then? The polls blew out and Abbott got knifed.

mariacostel wrote on Sep 18^th, 2015 at 4:30pm:

Yet he totally OWNED Abbott. Shorten must have something going for him if he was able to force the Liberals to knife their PM.

mariacostel wrote on Sep 18^th, 2015 at 4:30pm:

Weasel words ... you're just lying here. If this were true, why was Abbott sacked?

mariacostel wrote on Sep 18^th, 2015 at 4:30pm:

There hasn't been a 52-48 poll yet with the Coalition in front. 

mariacostel wrote on Sep 18^th, 2015 at 4:30pm:

Wishful thinking! Turnbull has already been a disappointment by not repudiating the Abbott government's more unpopular policies. If you think policies have no influence on the polls, you're deluding yourself.

mariacostel wrote on Sep 18^th, 2015 at 4:30pm:

More weasel words.

mariacostel wrote on Sep 18^th, 2015 at 4:30pm:

Geez you can spew crap at times. Do you really think policies have no influence on voters?

Something that's actually grounded in reality: It's the honeymoon period after a change of leader when people are hopeful. As the new leader fails to meet everyone's expectations, their polling ALWAYS declines by a few points. I expect Turnbull's polling to follow a similar trajectory to the Victorian Liberals after they changed leader in 2013 - a honeymoon period of a few months, followed by a steady decline to an election-losing position. Labor will be back to 52-48 by Christmas.

Turnbull has recorded low net approval before, when he was Opposition leader in 2009. There's nothing to suggest he won't do so again.

mariacostel wrote on Sep 18^th, 2015 at 4:30pm:

A very bold assessment considering that there's already been a 50-50 poll in the honeymoon period.   

mariacostel wrote on Sep 18^th, 2015 at 4:54pm:

That is hypocritical considering you ALWAYS push the pro-Liberal view. Always.

Dnarever wrote on Sep 19^th, 2015 at 11:04am:


The only people rejecting the polls are labor supporters. I wonder why?

mariacostel wrote on Sep 19^th, 2015 at 12:04pm:


Just another rogue poll...          

Bam wrote on Sep 19^th, 2015 at 12:13pm:


Despite what you want to think, the idea of a new carbon tax will also be a huge factor. The voters don't want one. Labor's boat people policy will come under scrutiny and few believe that the boats wont start again under labor.  These two a massive issues for voters.

The economy will of course be under discussion. Most people are unhappy that the economy hasnt improved as expected, but it is only a few short years since the Labor Disaster. Most will be unwilling to risk Labor again so soon after that mess, especially with Shorten at the helm.

Personality of the leaders will always be important. I would put almost any member of the Liberal front bench and half of the backbench up against Shorten and expect to win in this measure. The man is an absolute disaster.

The next growth figures will be important. If they are slightly negative (which is possible) then an election this year is off the table, but if it is positive then it is still possible. Economists however have stated that they think the worse of the economic decline is behind us and anecdotal evidence from some business supports that.

Libs to win with little to no loss of seats.

mariacostel wrote on Sep 19^th, 2015 at 1:40pm:

What a load of rubbish!

The voters want meaningful action on climate change and have rejected the Coalition's half-arsed effort. Your assertion that voters don't want a carbon tax is baseless. Last month, Essential Vision asked whether Australia is doing enough to combat climate change. A majority of respondents (53%) said we're not doing enough as opposed to only 7% who said we're doing too much. 24% said we're doing enough and 16% didn't know. That is a clear rejection of Coalition policy.

You're massively overstating the case for "boats". Voters worry more about their own jobs, whether they can pay the bills and so on. The economy is moribund and likely to slip into recession. If that happens, the Coalition are going to get hammered. The refugee crisis in Europe is shifting voters' views on the issue and they're more likely to favour a more humane policy rather than the frothy-mouthed far-right ratbaggery that the Coalition have foised upon an unwilling public.

And the most ludicrous part of your post is the assertion: "Libs to win with little to no loss of seats." With a moribund economy, massive blow-out in debt and deficit, a long list of broken promises and deeply unpopular policies? When voters see that Turnbull's keeping the same crap policies as Abbott, the slender poll lead won't last.

Longy, why do you post this crap?