Time for Bill to resign and Albo to be promoted.




Fairfax-Ipsos poll shows dark days for Labor as Coalition surges under Malcolm Turnbull

Support for Labor has plunged to just 30 per cent as voters flood back to a rejuvenated Coalition government under Malcolm Turnbull's new leadership style one month after he replaced the unpopular Tony Abbott as Prime Minister.

In what appears to be a clear vindication of that bruising leadership switch, Mr Turnbull has more than tripled Bill Shorten's popularity as preferred prime minister at 67 per cent to Mr Shorten's 21 - a dive of 24 points for the Opposition Leader since August, when he was up against Mr Abbott.

The October Fairfax-Ipsos poll has found the Coalition has surged ahead of Labor at 53-47 according to the flow of second preferences as allocated at the 2013 election.


Opposition Leader Bill Shorten has performed poorly in the first Fairfax-Ipsos poll taken since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister.

It is the first time the government has led Labor since March 2014, just before the disastrous first Abbott-Hockey budget, and suggests the Coalition, now under new management, has recovered almost all the ground lost since its landslide victory in September 2013.

When respondents were asked specifically who would get their second preference right now, the story got even worse for Mr Shorten, with the split widening to 54-46 in the Coalition's favour.

The poll also shows Australians have not been frightened away from the task of economic reform by anti free-trade, union-sponsored advertising campaigns, with 54 per cent of respondents in favour of the China-Australia free trade agreement compared to 33 per cent opposed, giving it a support rating of 21 per cent.

Mr Turnbull's net approval rating as Prime Minister now stands at a healthy 51 per cent based on 68 per cent of voters approving of the way he is handling his job, minus the 17 per cent who disapprove.

Mr Shorten's performance in his role as Opposition Leader is being marked down, with those approving (32 per cent) minus the percentage who those who disapprove (56 per cent) giving him a net rating of minus 24 per cent - a fall of 14 points in two months.

Labor's primary vote has dropped by a precipitous 6 points over the same period to be just 30 per cent, whereas the Coalition's first preference support has bounced back to 45 per cent. This is within one percentage point of where it was in September 2013 election.

Based on the second preference allocated by voters in 2013, that translates to a split of 53-47 in favour of the government  - just half a percentage point off the high-water mark of 53.5 per cent when it was elected.

It means the swing away from the Coalition since September 2013 now stands at just 0.5 per cent, returning the now Turnbull-run operation to frontrunner status for the election due within a year.

Support for the Greens remains at the upper end of its strong 2015 performance on 14 per cent, although it had peaked at 17 per cent earlier in the year and was at 16 per cent in the previous two Fairfax-Ipsos polls.

Tough times ahead for Shorten

The statistically weighted nationwide phone survey of 1403 respondents was taken over October 15-17 at the end of another difficult week for Mr Shorten, who attracted widespread criticism for attacking Mr Turnbull's wealth and his use of a hedge fund in the off-shore tax-haven, the Cayman Islands, to manage his investments.

The former Australian Workers Union boss also faced fresh allegations last week arising from the Royal Commission into Trade Union Governance and Corruption. Executives from construction companies with which the AWU dealt claimed side-deals and bogus invoices were used to mask the transfer of money to the union, as part of mutually agreeable arrangements to lock out the more militant CFMEU.

At 51 per cent, Mr Turnbull's net approval rating (68 per cent minus a 17 per cent disapproval) eclipses even the stellar approval rating of Kevin Rudd at his peak (in the then Fairfax-Nielsen series) who in May 2008 registered a 69 per cent approval number but also had a slightly higher disapproval rating than Mr Turnbull of 22 per cent.

By contrast, Mr Shorten's approval rating at just 32 per cent (down 7 percentage points), is sinking at the same rate as his party's plummeting primary vote support of 30 per cent (down 7 points since August), which is 10 points lower than it was at the start of 2015. Those disapproving of his performance as Opposition Leader has soared to 56 per cent in a finding likely to increase internal dissatisfaction levels in his leadership.

On the simple head-to-head contest of preferred prime minister, Mr Turnbull's lead of 46 points is among the highest in recent times, eclipsing all but the 53-point advantage Mr Rudd enjoyed over the-then embattled opposition leader in May 2008, Brendan Nelson. That lead was 70 per cent to 17.

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/dog-days-for-labor-as-coal...

Primary

Labor 30
Coalition 45
Greens 14
Other 9
Palmer 1

Armchair_Politician wrote on Oct 18^th, 2015 at 7:14pm:


He is going beautufully , he smashed young fogey and empty vessel to smithereens, once the Aussie public cotton on its the same old toxic policies with a new face trying to sell them its all over for the Libs , the only poll that counts is on election day despite what Turncoat said after knifing young fogey in the back .

oh whoopee do the POLLS are winning..

President Elect, The Mechanic wrote on Oct 18^th, 2015 at 8:42pm:

That would not be a good idea with the redistributions in NSW and WA not yet finalised. It would cause needless complications.

The Aussie public generally vote on Charisma but we can thank Tony for putting them all under the blow torch now after without doubt the worst 2 years in my lifetime. Best of luck selling his policies turncoat 

IPSOS like Newspoll tend to inflate the Greens/Other vote heavily.

I wonder what the result is based on respondent allocated preferences?

Karnal wrote on Oct 18^th, 2015 at 9:16pm:


I can't see the revolving door in Leadership of either party coming to a halt any time soon.  I recall the tumultuous days of Holt, McEwen, Gorton, McMahon, Snedden, Fraser (about whom Gorton famously remarked when Hawke won, beating Fraser.....'Congratulations for rolling that bastard, Fraser,') Peacock, Howard, Peacock, Hewson, Downer, and finally Liberal leadership settled on Howard and there was a period of stability in the Libs until he lost and then came Nelson, Turnbull, Abbott, and now Turnbull.  There is no Titan like Menzies.  And yeas, the ALP has obviously gone through the same revolving door...and they are yet to find their Champion as well.