Early elections are difficult for reasons that I have already stated elsewhere.

To summarise:
* An election cannot reasonably be held before the end of February 2016 because electoral redistributions in NSW and WA are not yet finalised. If an early election were held before then, NSW and WA would have to go to the polls with the old electorate boundaries but the new number of seats and that will be messy.
* A double dissolution cannot be held after the second week of May 2016. Double dissolution elections also require triggers. A few do exist, but are they sufficient justification?
* A half-Senate election cannot be held before August 6, 2016.
* Early House-only elections have never been held without a good reason. The only two times it has happened were due to the numbers in the House being unworkable. One government lost confidence on the floor of the House in 1929 (necessitating an immediate election), and Menzies went early in 1963 because the 2-seat majority in the House was too small to be workable. A government with a decent House majority has never called an early House-only election.

Turnbull's best course of action is to see out the term and hold the election when it falls due, August 6 2016 or later. Calling an early election unnecessarily could backfire, as it did for Fraser in 1983. There is the small risk that the economy could slip into recession before then, but on balance it is a risk that Turnbull should take. Turnbull is good at handling risks, it is how he made a lot of money before entering politics.

If the economy does end up going into recession, the following election usually brings a change of government. If Turnbull's Liberals do win in 2016 and the economy ends up in recession after that, the 2016 election could well be like 2007 - a good election to lose.

You could tell that article came from a Murdoch rag.

Economy growing more difficult, yeah, recessions are like that.

Revenues are falling, so they will cut spending.

The 2014 Budget failed because the ground wasn’t prepared??? It was harsh and unfair and hit the old, the sick, the poor and students. The one thing that would be lifting the economy right now, the NBN, has been killed, the MTM mishmash is crap, expensive crap.

Speculation about an election before they have to hand down a third botch of a Budget has been around before now. Probably they will call the election in March. MYEFO will be a pointer.

Action to lift revenues would be good. Super, NG, FBT, CGT exemption etc etc would add tens of billions of dollars of revenue a year. I doubt international companies will have to pay much tax here for quite a while.

And that crap about mandates makes good fertiliser for your gardens 

Kiron22 wrote on Nov 1^st, 2015 at 7:53am:


They don't need to. They already have labor in a vice. Polls are 53/47 and likely to rise to 55/45 by election time.  They are undefeatable.

Do you think the Libs will miss an opportunity to do some old fashion boomer vote buying?

The next budget will have so much vote buying in it, it will make Howard/Costello wince.

Kiron22 wrote on Nov 1^st, 2015 at 7:53am:


They don't need to. They already have labor in a vice. Polls are 53/47 and likely to rise to 55/45 by election time.  They are undefeatable.

mariacostel wrote on Nov 1^st, 2015 at 8:04am:



If they try to bring out a budget we may see the numbers reverse.