mariacostel wrote on Nov 4
th, 2015 at 5:16pm:
Its time wrote on Nov 4
th, 2015 at 5:07pm:
mariacostel wrote on Nov 4
th, 2015 at 4:41pm:
Seems some people missed the Morgan POll results
56.5/43.5
How do you all feel now knowing that as it gets worse, Labor are going to lose more and more seats and sentors.
Plenty of time to see what Turncoat stands for between now and election .
Plenty of time?? 6 weeks ago it was 46/54 and now it is close to 57/43
At the current rate, it will be 60/40 before Christmas.
Do a bit of research Maria before you post and poll result.
Morgan is usually right. The last one, showing the Coalition on 56.5, though, is peculiar.
It has Labor on 59 percent among 18-24 year olds, and 56.5 percent among 25-34 year olds. These seem to me about right.
Yet it has the Coalition on 58.5 among 35-49 year olds, 60.5 percent among 50-64 year olds, and 65 percent among the over 65s.
Labor was ahead in every age group eight weeks ago. It seems odd that the 35-49 year olds should be such a contrast with the way they were. If, for instance, the sampling was wrong and the 35-49 year olds are 50-50, the whole thing would be more like 50-50, which I think is where it probably is.
There are (sigh) 711,660 18-24 year olds voting or preferring Labor; and of the 25-34 year olds 1,098,000 voting or preferring Labor. If, then, half the 35-50 year olds, that is 1,458,332 were too, the total thus far, 3,267,229, augurs something more like a 50-50 result.
The by-election in Canning, in Turnbull’s first week, showed a swing away from the Liberals of 9 percent. South West Coast a swing of 16 percent away from them. Polwarth a swing of 6 percent.
Something is wrong here. Swings to Labor in reality, and away from Labor in theory.
There are some problems with your analysis. It is possible that this particular poll is an outlier, but it is also possible that it is a early warning indicator. Either way, Labor is still getting flogged.
The Canning byelection was not what you think. By-elections typically have swings of 3-4% against the incumbent government by virtue of being a by-election and are not reflected in a general election. It was also replacing a well-known and well respected long-term deceased member. That normally costs the new member 5-6% initially. Add them together and there is no real swing to Labor at all or even... a swing to the Libs.