Australian Politics Forum - We're having a heat wave

Sun Tzu

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Re: We're having a heat wave
Reply #90 - Nov 26^th, 2015 at 4:45pm

lee wrote on Nov 26^th, 2015 at 4:04pm:

Sun Tzu wrote on Nov 26^th, 2015 at 1:12pm:

The temperature's rising. "She certainly can can can"

Yep, good graph. See how the slope (rate of change), since 1997, is not as much as pre-1997?

Remember the Karl et al 2015 adjustments to NASA/NOOA/GISS datasets?

lee obfuscates again and ignores the 2015 values at the end of the chart which leap sharply off the trend line.

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 17980 Gender:	Re: We're having a heat wave Reply #91 - Nov 26^th, 2015 at 5:55pm Sun Tzu wrote on Nov 26^th, 2015 at 4:45pm: lee obfuscates again and ignores the 2015 values at the end of the chart which leap sharply off the trend line. You ignore Karl et al and El Nino. What trend line?
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Sun Tzu

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Re: We're having a heat wave
Reply #92 - Nov 26^th, 2015 at 10:07pm

lee wrote on Nov 26^th, 2015 at 5:55pm:

Sun Tzu wrote on Nov 26^th, 2015 at 4:45pm:

lee obfuscates again and ignores the 2015 values at the end of the chart which leap sharply off the trend line.

You ignore Karl et al and El Nino. What trend line?

Please pay attention at the back of the class Mr. lee and stop blaming your imaginary friends for your misfortunes.

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 17980 Gender:	Re: We're having a heat wave Reply #93 - Nov 26^th, 2015 at 10:54pm --
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 17980 Gender:	Re: We're having a heat wave Reply #94 - Nov 26^th, 2015 at 10:58pm If those lines at the end of your graph are the new trend, it shows a step-change. Step-changes occur when there is a change in location, instrumentation or methodology.
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Grappler Deep State Feller Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 85213 Always was always will be HOME Gender:	Re: We're having a heat wave Reply #95 - Nov 27^th, 2015 at 12:00am Hot windy day - spent the day watching the horizon for smoke... tonight is track suit in bed time again.... brrrrr....
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Sun Tzu Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 1148 Gender:	Re: We're having a heat wave Reply #96 - Nov 27^th, 2015 at 12:09am lee wrote on Nov 26^th, 2015 at 10:58pm: If those lines at the end of your graph are the new trend, it shows a step-change. Step-changes occur when there is a change in location, instrumentation or methodology. ... or a change in the measured variable!
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lee

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Re: We're having a heat wave
Reply #97 - Nov 27^th, 2015 at 9:14am

You do know the Karl et al paper? Used noisy ships data +/-1.7C and married it up to buoy data. They did this with a self-admitted significance or p value of 0.10C

'Boldface indicates trends that are significant at the 0.10 significance level. '

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/suppl/2015/06/03/science.aaa5632.DC1/Karl-SM.p...

What is significance or p value?

' A small p-value (typically ≤ 0.05) indicates strong evidence against the null hypothesis, so you reject the null hypothesis.

A large p-value (> 0.05) indicates weak evidence against the null hypothesis, so you fail to reject the null hypothesis.

p-values very close to the cutoff (0.05) are considered to be marginal (could go either way). Always report the p-value so your readers can draw their own conclusions.'

http://www.dummies.com/how-to/content/what-a-pvalue-tells-you-about-statistical-...

So you see they should have rejected the findings, instead they incorporated them in the NOOA/NASA/GISS datasets.

Oh, by the way HadCRUt made their own adjustments, just not as much as the Karl et al.

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« Last Edit: Nov 27^th, 2015 at 9:21am by lee »

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Sun Tzu

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Re: We're having a heat wave
Reply #98 - Nov 27^th, 2015 at 10:45am

The temperature's rising and denialists are ditching their collars.

First 10 days of November are record breaking after record breaking October.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/incredible-november-warmth-for...

Quote:

The first 10 days of November 2015 have seen record-breaking warmth for many locations in Florida and elsewhere in U.S. while all-time November monthly national heat records have so far been broken in the U.K., Ireland, France, Estonia, Slovenia, and Finland. All-time record heat (for any month) was also observed in parts of Australia and French Guiana. Here is a brief summary.

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BatteriesNotIncluded Gold Member Offline MediocrityNET: because people died for this! Posts: 26966	Re: We're having a heat wave Reply #99 - Nov 27^th, 2015 at 11:47am lee wrote on Nov 26^th, 2015 at 10:58pm: If those lines at the end of your graph are the new trend, it shows a step-change. Step-changes occur when there is a change in location, instrumentation or methodology. --------> lee has never heard of phase change!
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BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: We're having a heat wave
Reply #100 - Nov 27^th, 2015 at 11:49am

Sun Tzu wrote on Nov 27^th, 2015 at 10:45am:

The temperature's rising and denialists are ditching their collars.

First 10 days of November are record breaking after record breaking October.

http://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/chrisburt/globenov7.jpg

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/incredible-november-warmth-for...

Quote:

The first 10 days of November 2015 have seen record-breaking warmth for many locations in Florida and elsewhere in U.S. while all-time November monthly national heat records have so far been broken in the U.K., Ireland, France, Estonia, Slovenia, and Finland. All-time record heat (for any month) was also observed in parts of Australia and French Guiana. Here is a brief summary.

Some of these maps are showing hot-spots on Antarctica too... Also Australia! But, yeh- The arctic definitley has almost permanent hotspots!

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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) *

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BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: We're having a heat wave
Reply #101 - Nov 27^th, 2015 at 11:52am

lee wrote on Nov 27^th, 2015 at 9:14am:

You do know the Karl et al paper? Used noisy ships data +/-1.7C and married it up to buoy data. They did this with a self-admitted significance or p value of 0.10C

'Boldface indicates trends that are significant at the 0.10 significance level. '

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/suppl/2015/06/03/science.aaa5632.DC1/Karl-SM.p...

What is significance or p value?

' A small p-value (typically ≤ 0.05) indicates strong evidence against the null hypothesis, so you reject the null hypothesis.

A large p-value (> 0.05) indicates weak evidence against the null hypothesis, so you fail to reject the null hypothesis.

p-values very close to the cutoff (0.05) are considered to be marginal (could go either way). Always report the p-value so your readers can draw their own conclusions.'

http://www.dummies.com/how-to/content/what-a-pvalue-tells-you-about-statistical-...

So you see they should have rejected the findings, instead they incorporated them in the NOOA/NASA/GISS datasets.

Oh, by the way HadCRUt made their own adjustments, just not as much as the Karl et al.

....um, dear buddy---> I don't know how to put this except to say "A little Dimensional analysis on your behalf is in order I RECTION !!"

F'N LOL

Huh

-like seriously, Huh

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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) *

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Sun Tzu

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Re: We're having a heat wave
Reply #102 - Nov 27^th, 2015 at 11:58am

The worst is yet to come because El Nino is reputedly about to affect Pacific Ocean which means the West Coast of USA and East coast Australia.

Australia could be in for a scorching December, January, February and March.

http://rapidnewsnetwork.com/2015-to-be-warmest-year-on-record-says-wmo/313347/

Quote:

Scientists are pointing to the El Nino formed earlier this year.

Australia is headed for one of its six warmest years since the Bureau of Meteorology began collecting national records in 1910.

Next year may yet be even warmer, since levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have risen to a new record every year for the past 30 years, and the El Niño phenomenon is likely to continue into 2016.

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« Last Edit: Nov 27^th, 2015 at 12:16pm by Sun Tzu »

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BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: We're having a heat wave
Reply #103 - Nov 27^th, 2015 at 2:14pm

Sun Tzu wrote on Nov 27^th, 2015 at 11:58am:

The worst is yet to come because El Nino is reputedly about to affect Pacific Ocean which means the West Coast of USA and East coast Australia.

Australia could be in for a scorching December, January, February and March.

http://rapidnewsnetwork.com/2015-to-be-warmest-year-on-record-says-wmo/313347/

Quote:

Scientists are pointing to the El Nino formed earlier this year.

Australia is headed for one of its six warmest years since the Bureau of Meteorology began collecting national records in 1910.

Next year may yet be even warmer, since levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have risen to a new record every year for the past 30 years, and the El Niño phenomenon is likely to continue into 2016.

When el nino heats up the east coast of Australia the heat bleeds through to the west via other mechanism!

Wink

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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) *

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UnSubRocky

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Re: We're having a heat wave
Reply #104 - Nov 28^th, 2015 at 11:38pm

El Nino means that the east coast of Australia is to receive a colder ocean current. Whilst the west coast of South America receives a warmer current. You would probably note that Townsville, typically averaging 1200mm of rain each year, has about 300mm of rain total for the year to November. I live in Rockhampton, and we are up to about 600 to 700mm. Normally, we have these occasional storms for this time of year, when it would rain fairly heavily during these storms. But because of the colder ocean currents, the storms are not very strong, and have not amount of rainfall that could cool us down. Today, yesterday, and probably the day before that, we have been experiencing over 35 degree temperatures (maximum of 40) for this week. I have not felt at all comfortable. Especially seeing that I have to wear long pants as part of my work uniform.

With the El Nino breaking down, we should see some normality come to east coast Australia. I see no reason why we could have a bumper (albeit late) start to the cyclone season. Doubt that I will see an average rainfall to get the grass growing again for this year. May have to wait until next year.

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At this stage...

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