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We're having a heat wave (Read 15486 times)
lee
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Re: We're having a heat wave
Reply #180 - Dec 20th, 2015 at 2:06pm
 
Sun Tzu wrote on Dec 20th, 2015 at 12:29pm:
The chart below indicates that the tipping point may now be behind us.



...

Why does the CO2 Equivalent and Natural seem to stop about 2005?

If CO2 equivalent is man made emissions; why is it at the same level as CO2E + Natural? Natural CO2 is a large part of emissions.
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Re: We're having a heat wave
Reply #181 - Dec 20th, 2015 at 2:08pm
 
Why is CO2 Equivalent + Natural below CO2 Equivalent alone?
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Re: We're having a heat wave
Reply #182 - Dec 20th, 2015 at 3:24pm
 
lee wrote on Dec 20th, 2015 at 2:08pm:
Why is CO2 Equivalent + Natural below CO2 Equivalent alone?


While lee is scratching his head the rest of us are burning up.

Your answer:

Quote:
The gray line on this graph shows observed surface temperatures from 1880 to 2015. The red line shows the effective temperature forcing of greenhouse gases and aerosols (converted to CO2), and the blue line shows the forcing from both those manmade sources and natural factors, like solar radiation. Early on in the temperature record, the red and blue lines diverge because natural factors meant the full impact of greenhouse gases on temperatures wasn't being felt, but in recent years, the two lines match closely, showing how much greenhouse gases are dominating global temperatures. 2015 is slightly above the red line because of a small push from El Niño as well as even smaller contributions from solar radiation and random weather variations.
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Re: We're having a heat wave
Reply #183 - Dec 20th, 2015 at 4:16pm
 
Sun Tzu wrote on Dec 20th, 2015 at 3:24pm:
lee wrote on Dec 20th, 2015 at 2:08pm:
Why is CO2 Equivalent + Natural below CO2 Equivalent alone?


While lee is scratching his head the rest of us are burning up.

Your answer:

Quote:
The gray line on this graph shows observed surface temperatures from 1880 to 2015. The red line shows the effective temperature forcing of greenhouse gases and aerosols (converted to CO2), and the blue line shows the forcing from both those manmade sources and natural factors, like solar radiation. Early on in the temperature record, the red and blue lines diverge because natural factors meant the full impact of greenhouse gases on temperatures wasn't being felt, but in recent years, the two lines match closely, showing how much greenhouse gases are dominating global temperatures. 2015 is slightly above the red line because of a small push from El Niño as well as even smaller contributions from solar radiation and random weather variations.



So  temperatures from CO2 Equivalent and Natural emissions fall below CO2 Equivalent emissions alone.
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Re: We're having a heat wave
Reply #184 - Dec 20th, 2015 at 6:18pm
 
Northern Hemisphere winter has not yet appeared. Looks like December 2015 will be warmest ever on record all around the world. Currently averaging 8oF higher than average. This is a big jump.

http://nypost.com/2015/12/19/christmas-will-be-far-from-white-as-record-heat-wav...

Quote:
Dreaming of a white Christ­mas? Fuhgeddaboudit!

After a chilly weekend, record-challenging warmth will return to the Big Apple — with a flow of warm, moist air from the South.

Some rain is expected this week, including on a balmy Christmas Eve with an expected high of 66. And it’s beginning to look a lot like a sunny Christmas Day with a high of 53, says AccuWeather.

The warmest Big Apple December on record was an average 44.1 degrees in 2001. As of Friday, this December’s average has been near 52.
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Re: We're having a heat wave
Reply #185 - Dec 21st, 2015 at 12:08pm
 
Arctic temperature reaches a record high:

...

http://thesource.com/2015/12/20/arctic-temperature-reaches-record-high/

Quote:
ARCTIC TEMPERATURE REACHES RECORD HIGH

KIAH FIELDS  DECEMBER 20, 2015
The Arctic recently received its annual check up by an international team of scientists and the results were not positive. It appears that the region continues to be one of the fast warming regions on the globe.

From October 2014 to September 2015, the Arctic has had its highest recorded average temperature since 1900, as the planet as a whole approaches its warmest year on record. This accelerated heating can result in downward spiraling of sea ice coverage, melting of Greenland’s Ice Sheet and reduced summer snow coverage. This change has a devastating effect on some species in this region and will most likely lead to more shipping and oil searching in the Arctic. Outside of the Arctic, this natural phenomenon can lead to raised water levels and unusual weather patterns.

Kit Kovacs of the Biodiversity Research Program of the Norwegian Polar Institute states that,

“The impact of the persistent warming trend of over 30 years are clearly evident in land and ocean environments”.

Given projections of further warming, the Earth is expected to experience major changes in the Arctic over the next decade. The Arctic has been warming at a rate twice the speed of that of the entire planet. This change has effected the sea ice coverage this year which was lower than ever before. This warming and melting of sea ice is caused by the greenhouse gases that are trapped in the atmosphere. In the video below, you can see the effects of global warming and that it is much more than a myth.

We all should have taken Al Gore and his advice a little more seriously at the turn of the millennium.


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Re: We're having a heat wave
Reply #186 - Dec 21st, 2015 at 12:15pm
 
Sun Tzu wrote on Dec 21st, 2015 at 12:08pm:
Arctic temperature reaches a record high:



How did they work out Arctic temperatures back to 1900? How many stations? What size error bars?
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Re: We're having a heat wave
Reply #187 - Dec 22nd, 2015 at 2:50pm
 
Wowee! USA winter heat wave. 6000 high temperature records broken across USA. Record high maximums and record high minimums.

1000 more records expected to be broken by end of December.

http://mashable.com/2015/12/21/warm-christmas-eve-east-coast/#h0EathrABEqG

Quote:
An unusual, long-lasting weather pattern will lead to the warmest Christmas Eve on record for many locations east of the Mississippi River on Thursday, as the planet as a whole barrels toward the milestone of its warmest year on record. By the end of this week, it's likely that hundreds more warm temperature records will have fallen across the United States, adding to December's already impressive tally of about 6,000 warm temperature records (record highs and record warm lows).

In Washington, D.C., the high temperature may exceed 70 degrees Fahrenheit on Christmas Eve — about 30 degrees Fahrenheit above average for the date. Mild temperatures in the mid-to-upper 60s could make it all the way north to upstate New York and northern Michigan before a cold front causes temperatures to fall off toward more seasonable levels by late on Friday.

In addition to these locations, Atlanta, Raleigh and Tampa are likely to set new temperature milestones on Christmas Eve, according to Weather Underground.

Christmas Day looks to be warmest across the Southeast, with records falling in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and other locations, while the Northeast cools off compared to Christmas Eve's balminess, but remains warmer-than-average.

Many cities are on pace to have their warmest December on record, including Boston, Burlington, Vermont, New York City and Portland, Maine. A map showing the departures from average of temperatures so far this month shows-off-the-charts warmth has enveloped much of the eastern tier of the country, with average temperature anomalies exceeding 9 degrees Fahrenheit. (The anomalies on the map only go up to 8 degrees Fahrenheit, since monthly anomalies rarely exceed that margin.)

In another sign of the mild start to the winter, some cities have set records for their latest first measurable snowfall. In Buffalo, New York, where it usually starts snowing by late October to early November, the first measurable snow of this winter did not arrive until Dec. 18. In Buffalo, New York, where it usually starts snowing by late October to early November, the first measurable snow of this winter did not arrive until Dec. 18. Before this, the latest first snow in Buffalo was on Dec. 3, 1899.

Even more locations, including Albany, New York, and Worcester, Massachusetts, are likely to set similar records, assuming it does not snow prior to Dec. 24, Weather.com reported.

According to preliminary data from the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) in Asheville, North Carolina, 2,643 record daily highs were tied or broken across the U.S. through Dec. 19. In addition, 3,720 record-warm daily low temperatures have been set or tied during the same period. Adding those two figures together for an overall warm temperature records total means there have already been 6,363 warm temperature records so far this month.

It's conceivable that this will climb by at least another 1,000 warm temperature records by the end of the holiday week.
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« Last Edit: Dec 22nd, 2015 at 5:00pm by Sun Tzu »  

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Re: We're having a heat wave
Reply #188 - Dec 22nd, 2015 at 3:13pm
 
Two scorchers here then it's back to the trackies... and we were hotter for those two days than up the coast....
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Re: We're having a heat wave
Reply #189 - Dec 22nd, 2015 at 3:14pm
 
Grappler Deep State Feller wrote on Dec 22nd, 2015 at 3:13pm:
Two scorchers here then it's back to the trackies... and we were hotter for those two days than up the coast....


Two scorchers here in Perth, then back to 27 degrees.

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Re: We're having a heat wave
Reply #190 - Dec 26th, 2015 at 12:31pm
 
More records broken. This time Tasmania where two heads are better than one.

http://www.themercury.com.au/news/tasmania/tasmania-celebrates-christmas-with-a-...

Quote:
IT’S the hottest Christmas Day on record but that hasn’t stopped Hobartians from celebrating the day in many different ways.

The temperature hit a high of 36C at 2.25pm, smashing the previous Christmas Day record of 34.3 set in 1945.

It was only the seventh time in more than 100 years that Christmas Day in Hobart had reached more than 30C and the first time since 1989.


Meanwhile one-headed former Tasmanians now called Victorians (or Tassie Unicorns), and crow-stoning South Australians had it tough as well:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-12-23/heat-records-smashed-in-december-heatwave/...

Quote:
The weather bureau has confirmed a heatwave in the country's south-east last week and into the weekend smashed several hot weather records in South Australia, Victoria and Tasmania.

In a special climate statement, issued on Wednesday, the bureau said the most intense phase of the heatwave began building mid last week as a high pressure system in the Tasman Sea directed hot north-easterly winds inland, spreading extreme heat over much of the country's south-east on Friday and into the weekend.

The hottest temperatures were recorded in South Australia's Spencer Gulf on December 19, with Port Augusta reaching 47.2 degrees Celsius, Whyalla recording 45.8C and Port Pirie hitting 45.6C.

The temperature in the South Australian capital Adelaide, and surrounding areas, reached 40C every day from December 16 to December 19, marking the first time four consecutive days of 40C or above had been recorded in the city in December.

Victoria's highest temperatures were recorded in the state's west, with Avalon Airport, reaching 45C, while nearby Geelong recorded its hottest ever December day of 44C. Temperatures also exceeded 44C at a number of locations in the state's Wimmera region.

As well as numerous records being set for the hottest December daytime temperatures, there were also record high minimums, with areas of western Victoria and northern Tasmania enduring their hottest December night on record from Saturday evening into Sunday morning.

In Victoria's north-west, Mildura set a record for the state's hottest ever overnight temperature of 31.9C.
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« Last Edit: Dec 26th, 2015 at 1:36pm by Sun Tzu »  

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Re: We're having a heat wave
Reply #191 - Dec 26th, 2015 at 4:52pm
 
100 homes destroyed by Bush fire in Victoria.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/australia/75463165/Victoria-bushfires-Towns-evacuat...

Quote:
More than a hundred houses have been confirmed destroyed have been lost in the fires that has swept through the popular Surf Coast holiday towns of Wye River and Separation Creek in Victoria, Australia.

Eighty-five homes were burnt down in Wye River and a further 18 were destroyed in Separation Creek, bringing the total to 103, nearly twice the number originally feared..

"Our thoughts go out to the people who have lost homes in Separation Creek and Wye River and our personnel are working around the clock to bring this fire under control," Victoria's Emergency Management Commissioner Craig Lapsley said.

Lorne was evacuated on Christmas Day, amid fears a south-westerly wind change would turn the fire front on the town on Christmas night.

On Boxing Day, the evacuation order for Lorne was lifted and the Great Ocean Road was reopened between the town and Torquay, allowing thousands of holidaymakers and residents to return to the Surf Coast over the holiday season. 

Lapsley said the immediate fire threat had eased, but the fire would continue to burn "for weeks".
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Re: We're having a heat wave
Reply #192 - Dec 26th, 2015 at 5:55pm
 
Sun Tzu wrote on Dec 26th, 2015 at 4:52pm:
100 homes destroyed by Bush fire in Victoria.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/australia/75463165/Victoria-bushfires-Towns-evacuat...



Nothing about a heat wave.
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Re: We're having a heat wave
Reply #193 - Dec 29th, 2015 at 12:58pm
 
WA hottest place on earth yesterday 45.1oC December 28, 2015:

https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/30453158/nowhere-hotter-than-here-in-wa/

Quote:
WA was the hottest place on Earth yesterday, as Perth recorded its warmest December day for three years — and Geraldton Airport topped the global temperature scale when it reached a blazing 45.1C.

As towns all over the State broke the 40C mark, sweltering holidaymakers made a beeline for beaches and cinemas — while backyard pools were also popular — in a bid for any relief from the heat.
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Re: We're having a heat wave
Reply #194 - Dec 30th, 2015 at 3:20pm
 
North pole set for December heat wave:

http://www.climatechangenews.com/2015/12/29/north-pole-set-for-december-heatwave...

Quote:
Monster storm over Iceland likely to push warm air over Arctic, sending temperatures soaring from -30C to freezing

Santa would be advised to keep his clothes on, but the mercury is set to rocket at the North Pole on Wednesday.

It’s down to what is being variously described as a ‘freak’, ‘monster’ or ‘bomb’ storm in the Atlantic above Iceland.

Winds over 230 miles per hour are set to rip across the North Atlantic, gaining power from other storms in the vicinity.

As Mashable’s Andrew Freedman explains here, this will have a number of effects.

One will be to shower the UK with yet more rain, exacerbating flooding in the north of the country.

The other will be to “pump mild air” up to the polar regions.

“This temperature spike could influence the ice buildup during the winter, which is becoming more critical now that global warming is melting so much sea ice during the spring, summer and fall months,” he writes.

Jason Samenow at the Washington Post puts it in even starker terms.

“It’s as if a bomb went off. And, in fact, it did. The exploding storm acts a remarkably efficient heat engine, drawing warm air from the tropics to the top of the Earth,” he says.

As meteorologist Ryan Maue points out below, this ‘heatwave’ is all relative. But it’s an extraordinary way for a a year packed with record-breaking weather events to end.
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