perceptions_now wrote on Dec 2
nd, 2015 at 7:36pm:
beer wrote on Dec 2
nd, 2015 at 6:52pm:
perceptions_now wrote on Dec 2
nd, 2015 at 6:22pm:
Well, let me simply state that everything has limits, as we are now in the process of finding out, on a "few" fronts!
Yes, everything has a limit, but doen't mean you find and stop there. You can find new way, new direction from it. When you were young, did you think about there will be something called Google? the best thing/limit is a big library.
Sorry, I was a bit rushed earlier!
I should have mentioned that the major Drivers of Economic Growth, particularly in the Modern era, were -
1) Demographics - Continuing Population Growth, which was the number 1 driver of Economic Growth, as it was the backstop that ensured Growth would always return.
2) Energy - This has also been a major driver, given that it became readily available, at cheap prices & Supply kept up with Population Growth.
3) Climate - We have had a substantially "Goldilocks Global Climate", for the last 200 years & that has enabled the Population Growth to expand, at very high levels.
4) Innovation - This was also a major driver, enabling more to be done with less. However, like everything, there are limits to doing more with less, even in Economics, as we will now find out.
All other Economic measures, revolve around the above 4 basics!
That said, innovation is now our last, great hope, BUT I would not rely on Innovation, for last minute outcomes, as good public policy & at this point there is nothing on the horizon, which would remotely suggest a good outcome!
So, is economic growth good per se?
The likely answer is, it had its place, But now it is likely to be a fading memory!
Thanks for the above thoughtful comments, but I can not agree with points other than demographics.
All other 3 can be counted with knowledge(social/scientific)/technologies/innovation, only the demographics is driven by instinct.
1. Definition of energy has been changed time by time, price of energy has changed more often.
400 years ago, I guess even coal was not really widely used as energy source for production activities until steam engine was invented. Oil got more important only after car and chemical industry developed. Nowadays, we have more broader definition of energy which can be used, e.g. nuclear power, solar energy.
The price of energy is also driven by technology improvement, most recent example was excavation of shale gas. Thanks to it, oil is below $50 now.
2. I don't know what the theory behind recent 200 years of climate conditions, I guess what you mean was food supply or living related living conditions. Without farming technology improvement like widely used fertilizers and insecticide, I don't think current climate has too much contribution to food supply. I can took an example how Isrial grows vegetables on desert, how cucumber can be supplied under -20 degrees in greenhouse in Sebiria. Food price actually hasn't grown too much in many years, doesn't matter how bad was the weather in each year. Thanks to modern transportation and storage techs as well. In terms of living, Dubai is a very good example how a million people can live luxury in desert climate, though many poor labors have very bad conditions, but to be able to work there in +50 degrees, it's already a miracle.
3. Innovation is now only in technology, but also in social management. There are lots of work process and daily living habits did not exist 50 years ago. e.g shopping online, international travel was as cheap as today, laws take care of more details in daily things, politicians become more difficult to cheat public.
So, I can see it's brighter in tomorrow, people need to be optimistic but not be fooled by those politicians. Terrorism comparing to ww2, cold war and today's environmental challenge, cultural conflicts are just nothing. The world is far from the end and judgement day. The limit of growth is completely not visible in next hundred years, lots of things can be done, very long list.