GordyL wrote on Apr 2
nd, 2016 at 9:09pm:
polite_gandalf wrote on Apr 2
nd, 2016 at 8:55pm:
The Saudis follow the Wahabist school, which is actually a minority sect in sunni Islam. The wahabists were an irrelevancy in the Islamic world until they were funded and empowered by the British who used them as a tool against the Ottomans. Then they discovered oil, and they used the petro-dollars to propagate their extremist version of Islam, as well as spawn a new generation of rich and powerful jihadists like bin Laden.
Yes. I get all that.
If you could be bothered sifting thru all my posts you'd see my idea for a new world order would begin with independence from oil and neutering KSA.
But it's 2016 and Islam is lerching towards Islamism.
So when I see stuff like this and Im told bugger off you Islamophobe can you not understand the frustration?
http://m.smh.com.au/national/wikileaks-saudi-cables-reveal-secret-saudi-government-influence-in-australia-20150620-ght4kp.html
The way I see it, so much of all this is determined by geo-politics. Saudi influence - and with it the rise of Islamism in the middle east (and to a lesser extent across the muslim world), was instigated by dramatic geo-political changes: first the fall of the Ottoman hegemony, and then the decline of western imperialism. The arab spring was another major geo-political change that emboldened the Islamists even more. And then throw into the mix the catastrophic political vacuum left by the invasion of Iraq that directly led to the rise of ISIS.
What I'm saying is, everything to do with Islamism in the muslim world comes down to geo-political influences. It rose only because of changing geo-political factors, and if it falls, it will be because of geo-political factors. Actual philosophical and theological developments in the Islamic religion don't even rate a mention. All the different ideas are already there: extreme, moderate, reformist, conservative - you name it, they all exist, and any of them can become dominant given the right conditions. And the only thing that determines which particular ideology dominates and prevails is mundane and wholly secular political issues. And on that score, my sense is that we are on the verge of another tectonic shift in Islam - brought about by the fact that the petro-dollar economic bonanza and associated western protection racket enjoyed by the Saudis is coming to a shuddering halt. It was revealed recently that the Saudis can only balance their budget with an oil price of around $100 a barrel. For the last 6 months or so it has been around $30-$40. The Saudis have been panicking - ramping up production (and in so doing so putting even more downward pressure on prices) in a desperate attempt to push the North American shale operators out of the market, in the hope that this will eventually enable prices to go back up to where they want it. How long can this brinkmanship go? Not long methinks. Moreover their geo-political rivals - the Iranians, have just stabilized relations with the US, forging a new historic economic agreement that effectively leaves the Saudis out in the cold. Its not hard to see the writing on the wall: economic imperatives will finally merge with a rediscovered moral compass. Saudi Arabia now executes more of its citizens than any other country - beheading people for such crimes as witchcraft and abused women and/or foreign workers defending themselves. Why would the US continue awkwardly pretending that Saudi Arabia isn't actually ISIS on steroids - when there is less and less economic incentive to do so? The US's logistical support for the Saudis current hospital and school bomb-fest in Yemen could well be the last hurrah for this unholy alliance.
Long story short, I think Saudi Arabia is about to enter a period of deep economic decline - and with it, the decline of the main source of middle -eastern Islamism. However it could well get worse before it gets better: as extremist as the current Saudi regime is, sadly, the current alternatives are all much worse. There simply is no moderate or progressive opposition in Saudi politics - so if the regime falls, it will inevitably be replaced by something much worse. And the new 'even-whackier-than-the-other-guys' regime will doubtless use whats left of Saudi wealth to drag as much as it can of the muslim world into the abyss. But it won't last for long, and eventually a non-Saudi/Wahabist Islam will have its opportunity to dominate, and things will improve.