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bogarde73
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And the news for Clinton is about to get worse. Tomorrow, Emerson College will release a spate of new polls on the state of the presidential race in New England and New Jersey — states that typically vote for the Democratic presidential candidate, and by a substantial margin.
The biggest shocker is Rhode Island, which Obama carried by 27 points in 2012. According to the Emerson poll, Clinton leads Trump by just 3 points, well within the statistical margin of error. And in Maine’s second district, which votes apart from the rest of the state, Trump is beating Clinton soundly, the new poll shows.
And then there’s New Jersey, a state with a sizable 14 electoral votes, which hasn’t gone Republican since 1988. Even with Trump surrogate New Jersey governor Christ Christie’s supporting him, many analyst have considered Trump’s promise to put New Jersey “in play” in 2016 to be pure fantasy. Christie, it’s been said, is so unpopular in his home state that his support for Trump won’t help the candidate.
Maybe not, but Emerson finds Trump within 4 points of Clinton now. Previous polls have found Clinton with a more sizable double-digit lead, including 21 points in a poll conducted by Fairleigh Dickenson in June. Obama carried the state handily in 2008 and 2012, by 17 and 18 points, respectively.
Spencer Kimball, who directed the latest polling for Emerson, told me that the Trump surge is real and probably growing. His organization recently polled voters in Virginia and North Carolina and found Trump closing fast in those two states, too.
Among other Emerson findings, Trump’s winning men by a larger margin than Clinton is winning women, giving the GOP candidate the gender gap advantage. CNN/ORC found the same result in its latest national poll – a 7 point advantage for Trump. And voters are saying they believe Trump is more honest and trustworthy and is better able to handle the economy and terrorism.
Another unexpected factor is the African-American vote. Emerson, alone among polling organizations, has found Trump increasing his support with a voter group that typically tilts Democratic. Among African Americans Trump garners 15% in Virginia, 15% in New jersey, and 16% in North Carolina, according to Emerson’s recent polling.
Kimball notes that the margin of error in the polling results for “sub-groups” – about 8% – is higher than for the poll as a whole. That means Trump’s real level of African-American support might be anywhere between about 7% and 23%. Still, even 7-8% support is double what other recent polls have shown.
The possibility of Trump breakthroughs in New Jersey or Rhode Island should be weighed again Clinton’s own efforts to alter the electoral map. She’s polling competitively in GOP diehard states like Georgia and Missouri, as well as Arizona.
Trump, meanwhile, is neck-and-neck or leading in states like Nevada and Wisconsin, and may even have a shot at Oregon – all of which have trended Blue in recent years.
The upshot? Forget about what the mainstream media says. Nine weeks out – and with three critical debates still ahead – all bets are off for who will win the presidency in 2016.
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