Baron, how many republican party heavyweights publicly abandoned and attacked Bush - and even officially disendorsed him during those two election? Any?

bogarde73 wrote on Oct 21^st, 2016 at 6:51am:


Here we go, Greggery - Bogie's got his finger on the pulse.

Will you be taking up Greggery's challenge, Bogie?

Remember - no socks.

Karnal wrote on Oct 21^st, 2016 at 7:26pm:


He won't be taking me up on my challenge.

Not a single one of them has the guts.

They all know there's more chance of Pauline Hanson getting a PhD than there is of Donald - accused of raping a child - Trump becoming POTUS.

bogarde73 wrote on Oct 21^st, 2016 at 6:51am:



Your bowling club must be desperate.

SUNY professor says Trump win at least 87 percent certain; other polls 'bunk'

Stony Brook, N.Y. — A SUNY professor continues to project Donald Trump as the likely winner of this year's election and he's critiquing polls that predict the opposite in a new opinion piece.

Helmut Norpoth has been predicting a Trump victory since early this year. His model currently projects a win for the Republican with a certainty of 87 to 99 percent.

Norpoth is a professor at Stony Brook University on Long Island.

That flies in the face of just about every other major election forecast out there, which mostly give an edge to Democrat Hillary Clinton, notes the Daily Mail.

Norpoth wrote in The Hill that although the race looks decided, current polling methods are "bunk."

The projections for Clinton are all based on opinion polls, which are flawed because they don't reflect actions, Norpoth wrote. They're about what voters think of Clinton or Trump, but they can't tell us exactly how voters will act on those thoughts.

"It is ingrained in all of us that voting is civic duty," he says. "So nearly all of us say, oh yes, I'll vote, and then many will not follow through."

Instead of opinion polling, Norpoth relies on statistics from candidates' performances in party primaries and patterns in the electoral cycle to forecast results. The model correctly predicted the victor in every presidential election since 1996, according to the Daily Mail.

Running the model on earlier campaigns comes up with the correct outcome for every race since 1912, except the 1960 election.

Norpoth wrote on his site that Trump's victories in early primary states are key predictors of his chances in November. The cycle also favors the GOP after two terms of a Democrat in the White House.

"So hold off on trusting poll-driven proclamations of a Clinton victory just yet," Norpoth wrote in The Hill. "Voters have a way of always getting the last word."

http://www.syracuse.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/10/helmut_norpoth_donald_trump_v...

More on the model:
http://primarymodel.com/2016-forecast-full/

Frank wrote on Oct 22^nd, 2016 at 6:26am:


Pundits made the mistake of predicting a close race in 2012 - against the better wisdom of the polls. In the end, surprise surprise, the polls turned out to be correct after all.

Frank wrote on Oct 22^nd, 2016 at 6:26am:


Uncanny. Professor Soren Sorenson from the University of Bslogney said exactly the same thing.

Not your Alma Mater by any chance, is it, Frank?

Hillary as prez will be the beginning of the end of the US.

She will be illegitimate from 9 November. She has been illegitimate for decades.


Hillary's [presidency will bring to the fore the deep schasm of American politics. There will be attempts to secede from the Union, there will be deep and bitter divisions.

You cannot impose all the progressive shite on an unwilling electorate - see Trump, Wilders, Le Pen, Orban, Abbott, Hanson, AfD, etc, etc.  There is no repressing of the popular will. You cannot badger people. The people are sovereign - not the Guardian, CNN, Fairfax and the rest.

A Clinton presidency will be the end of polite politics. She is no blackie nor a Muslims like O'bama. She is as privileged and implicated as it is possible to be.
She is Bill's wife who has put up with Bill only on the understanding that she, the real presidential candidate of the two, will be one day supported for the presidency.


America is digging it's grave if it elects her. She is the embodiment of all the bizarre-o contradictions of right-on America.

I think it will be an American Brexit, I still hope.