Australian Politics Forum - Who Will Win the Presidency?

AiA

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Who Will Win the Presidency?
Sep 15^th, 2016 at 3:31am

nobody can know who will win the 2016 US presidential election but there is data worth paying attention to, that of statistician Nate Silver, based on his impressive track record.

As of two hours ago he put Hillary at a 67.1 % chance of winning using the "polls-only forecast":

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

If the election were held today (again, updated 2 hours ago) Hillary has a 69.6% of winning:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now

Again, these are forecasts, but Nate Silver's track record is so good that his forecasts are the ones to watch.

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AiA

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Re: Who Will Win the Presidency?
Reply #1 - Sep 15^th, 2016 at 3:53am

As of 47 minutes ago Hillary Clinton has a 66.8% chance of winning in the polls-only forecast.

Sure, if you watch the news your attention is focused on Trump, Trump, Trump and Hillary's "mystery" illness so naturally you would think Trump will win. I am not saying he will not, however. The mind gives causality to whatever it is focused on whether causality exists or not.

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« Last Edit: Sep 15^th, 2016 at 4:28am by AiA »

“Jerry, just remember: It’s not a lie … if you believe it.” George Costanza

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Sunny_beach_babe Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 841	Re: Who Will Win the Presidency? Reply #2 - Sep 15^th, 2016 at 7:16am Down to 64.3% She's going down quicker than Monica in a blue dress.
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AiA Gold Member Offline Posts: 18405 Gender:	Re: Who Will Win the Presidency? Reply #3 - Sep 15^th, 2016 at 7:52am Sunny_beach_babe wrote on Sep 15^th, 2016 at 7:16am: Down to 64.3% She's going down quicker than Monica in a blue dress. No, 64.1% as of now, Chinaman. Kind of like blood pressure, up and down.
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issuevoter Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 9200 The Great State of Mind Gender:	Re: Who Will Win the Presidency? Reply #4 - Sep 15^th, 2016 at 8:20am Just to clarify; what is a percentage of a chance?
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AiA Gold Member Offline Posts: 18405 Gender:	Re: Who Will Win the Presidency? Reply #5 - Sep 15^th, 2016 at 8:23am issuevoter wrote on Sep 15^th, 2016 at 8:20am: Just to clarify; what is a percentage of a chance? Chance of winning.
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AiA Gold Member Offline Posts: 18405 Gender:	Re: Who Will Win the Presidency? Reply #6 - Sep 15^th, 2016 at 10:02pm As of 19 minutes ago Clinton has a 63.6% chance of winning to Trump's 36.3% http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
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Sunny_beach_babe Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 841	Re: Who Will Win the Presidency? Reply #7 - Sep 15^th, 2016 at 10:10pm The trend is your friend. Egg is for Gweg.
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AiA Gold Member Offline Posts: 18405 Gender:	Re: Who Will Win the Presidency? Reply #8 - Sep 15^th, 2016 at 10:13pm Sunny_beach_babe wrote on Sep 15^th, 2016 at 10:10pm: The trend is your friend. Egg is for Gweg. a fearsome oriental whoopin online ass
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greggerypeccary Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 136337 Gender:	Re: Who Will Win the Presidency? Reply #9 - Sep 15^th, 2016 at 10:14pm Hillary will win. Anyone wanna make a bet? Of course not: gutless bitches.
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AiA Gold Member Offline Posts: 18405 Gender:	Re: Who Will Win the Presidency? Reply #10 - Sep 15^th, 2016 at 10:16pm greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 15^th, 2016 at 10:14pm: Hillary will win. Anyone wanna make a bet? Of course not: gutless bitches. If the election were held today, Clinton would win.
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Aussie

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Re: Who Will Win the Presidency?
Reply #11 - Sep 15^th, 2016 at 10:22pm

AiA wrote on Sep 15^th, 2016 at 10:16pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 15^th, 2016 at 10:14pm:

Hillary will win.

Anyone wanna make a bet?

Of course not: gutless bitches.

If the election were held today, Clinton would win.

She has been invisible for several days now. Even Trump seems to have backed off. The campaign (both sides) seems to be stalled for the moment. Yeas?

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AiA

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Re: Who Will Win the Presidency?
Reply #12 - Sep 15^th, 2016 at 10:27pm

Aussie wrote on Sep 15^th, 2016 at 10:22pm:

AiA wrote on Sep 15^th, 2016 at 10:16pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 15^th, 2016 at 10:14pm:

Hillary will win.

Anyone wanna make a bet?

Of course not: gutless bitches.

If the election were held today, Clinton would win.

She has been invisible for several days now. Even Trump seems to have backed off. The campaign (both sides) seems to be stalled for the moment. Yeas?

I suspect Trump backing off is the result of advice from his new handler. He is letting Hillary's health speak for itself.

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“Jerry, just remember: It’s not a lie … if you believe it.” George Costanza

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greggerypeccary Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 136337 Gender:	Re: Who Will Win the Presidency? Reply #13 - Sep 15^th, 2016 at 10:31pm AiA wrote on Sep 15^th, 2016 at 10:16pm: greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 15^th, 2016 at 10:14pm: Hillary will win. Anyone wanna make a bet? Of course not: gutless bitches. If the election were held today, Clinton would win. She'll win, on any day. I guarantee it.
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Sunny_beach_babe Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 841	Re: Who Will Win the Presidency? Reply #14 - Sep 15^th, 2016 at 10:33pm Hilary is toast. Gweggy can dip his face in her.
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