Australian Politics Forum - Who Will Win the Presidency?

greggerypeccary Gold Member Online Australian Politics Posts: 136341 Gender:	Re: Who Will Win the Presidency? Reply #45 - Sep 22^nd, 2016 at 1:54pm Belgarion wrote on Sep 22^nd, 2016 at 1:00pm: This election is still almost two months away. Anyone who claims to know who will win is talking through their arse. Care to make a wager? Hillary will win ... comfortably.
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AiA Gold Member Offline Posts: 18405 Gender:	Re: Who Will Win the Presidency? Reply #46 - Sep 22^nd, 2016 at 11:45pm Hillary has a 58.8% chance of winning as of 41 minutes ago according to statistician genius Nate Silver: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=2016-forecast
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Sprintcyclist

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Re: Who Will Win the Presidency?
Reply #47 - Sep 23^rd, 2016 at 12:10am

AiA wrote on Sep 22^nd, 2016 at 6:37am:

Genius statistician Nate Silver has Clinton at 56.8% to Trump's 43.2% as of 15 minutes ago ... the race is competitive, as it should be.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Could be a close armwrestle

I think the demos 'traditional' voters will leave them in droves.
The track record of the democrats is poor.

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Panther

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Re: Who Will Win the Presidency?
Reply #48 - Sep 23^rd, 2016 at 10:11am

Sprintcyclist wrote on Sep 23^rd, 2016 at 12:10am:

AiA wrote on Sep 22^nd, 2016 at 6:37am:

Genius statistician Nate Silver has Clinton at 56.8% to Trump's 43.2% as of 15 minutes ago ... the race is competitive, as it should be.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Could be a close armwrestle

I think the demos 'traditional' voters will leave them in droves.
The track record of the democrats is poor.

I think you're right Sprint........the polls seem to show Trump's making inroads into the Black & Hispanic (yes, you heard right....Hispanics.....there are more Spanish speaking voters out there than Mexicans....many more in fact) Black & Hispanic voters......the traditional "
Taken For Granted
" demonrat base voters......for 2-3 reasons...

Hillary isn't seen as doing much, except lip service, for them economically....the message being put out by the Republicans on how they've fared poorly under Obama is hitting home (that Hillary won't do better, probably worse), & secondly being there is no real incentive to vote for Hillary outside of her being a demonrat (the first woman president in history thingie really doesn't seem to excite them like the first Black president allure did), & besides they are seeing her as a frail/sickly candidate, & to get what they want/need/wish for, they would need a stronger, projecting, healthier candidate.......another successful Republican message they're being hammered with.

With that said, I see a lot of those voters, & many white demorats too, either voting for another candidate who can win, or staying home & skipping this election.

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« Last Edit: Sep 23^rd, 2016 at 10:21am by Panther »

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AiA Gold Member Offline Posts: 18405 Gender:	Re: Who Will Win the Presidency? Reply #49 - Sep 23^rd, 2016 at 10:34pm 12 hours ago Clinton had a 60.5% chance of winning according to genius Nate Silver. We will see what the new day in North America will bring ... http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo
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AiA

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Re: Who Will Win the Presidency?
Reply #50 - Sep 24^th, 2016 at 1:47am

A new day has dawned in America and Clinton's chances of winning/losing are essentially unchanged: 60.3%.

I suspect the upcoming debates will be the most important since Nixon v JFK. Trump has new handlers which are framing him in a new way ... and it seems to be working. But the debates will leave him exposed. He has nothing to gain from the debates since what he is and has been doing is working fine but could he refuse to do the debates without destroying his chances?

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AiA Gold Member Offline Posts: 18405 Gender:	Re: Who Will Win the Presidency? Reply #51 - Sep 24^th, 2016 at 9:29pm Clinton - 60.8% chance of winning as of 4 hours ago
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Lionel Edriess Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 1932 Gender:	Re: Who Will Win the Presidency? Reply #52 - Sep 24^th, 2016 at 10:03pm Much will depend on how each candidate fares in the upcoming debates. Will Hillary choke?
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AiA Gold Member Offline Posts: 18405 Gender:	Re: Who Will Win the Presidency? Reply #53 - Sep 24^th, 2016 at 10:42pm Lionel Edriess wrote on Sep 24^th, 2016 at 10:03pm: Much will depend on how each candidate fares in the upcoming debates. Will Hillary choke? Trump has never debated in his life. Ever. About anything.
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Sprintcyclist Gold Member Offline OzPolitic Posts: 40679 Gender:	Re: Who Will Win the Presidency? Reply #54 - Sep 24^th, 2016 at 10:46pm Lionel Edriess wrote on Sep 24^th, 2016 at 10:03pm: Much will depend on how each candidate fares in the upcoming debates. Will Hillary choke? Will Hillary cancel ?
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AiA

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Re: Who Will Win the Presidency?
Reply #55 - Sep 24^th, 2016 at 11:13pm

Sprintcyclist wrote on Sep 24^th, 2016 at 10:46pm:

Lionel Edriess wrote on Sep 24^th, 2016 at 10:03pm:

Much will depend on how each candidate fares in the upcoming debates.

Will Hillary choke?

Will Hillary cancel ?

Trump has little to gain from the debates and a lot to lose. If anyone "cancels" it would be him. And it wouldn't be unexpected. He has been a bitchy little baby about the moderators, careful that no one would dare fact-check him.

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President Elect, The Mechanic Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 17501 Gender:	Re: Who Will Win the Presidency? Reply #56 - Sep 25^th, 2016 at 8:23am in the paper today there is some US guy who had predicted every winner since 1984.. He's picking Trump to win based on the formula he uses.. although.. he said that this was not a certainty as Trump is a unique character etc..
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AiA Gold Member Offline Posts: 18405 Gender:	Re: Who Will Win the Presidency? Reply #57 - Sep 29^th, 2016 at 7:36pm early polling is suggesting a post-debate bump for Clinton who as of 9 hours ago has a 57.9% chance of winning according to genius statistician Nate Silver. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo
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Black Orchid

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Re: Who Will Win the Presidency?
Reply #58 - Sep 29^th, 2016 at 9:36pm

Why isn't he questioning claims like this?

Quote:

Hillary’s top donor country is selling off ISIS sex slaves. That’s right, SEX SLAVES. Hillary takes millions of dollars from these savages who ABUSE women and gays – yet she calls herself a “champion of women” and “pro-gay?”

No, sorry, that hypocrisy won’t work anymore, lady. Hillary calls Trump supporters “deplorable” yet she TAKES MONEY from men who sell women as sex slaves, stone women, and don’t allow women to drive? How can any women or gay person support this monster?

http://12.onsocialengine.com/post/5683167/breaking-isis-sex-slaves-being-sold-of...

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AiA Gold Member Offline Posts: 18405 Gender:	Re: Who Will Win the Presidency? Reply #59 - Sep 30^th, 2016 at 2:57am Hillary may have gotten that small post-debate bump as she now has a 62.2% chance of winning. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo
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