Even the sniff of a Trump victory promises a wild ride for investors

Most seriously, expect a wobble in China. Trump has threatened a trade war, and that would be catastrophic for the manufacturing powerhouse. China’s exports to the US now come to $500bn, and account for 21pc of its total. It is not as if the rest of the world can absorb all that stuff if Trump makes good on his promises. The result? Empty factories, and mass unemployment. Latin America will suffer almost as much as Trump casually threatens to tear up trade agreements, and builds a wall with Mexico. All the emerging markets will start to go down.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/09/05/even-the-sniff-of-a-trump-victory...

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Donald Trump is headed for a win, says professor who always gets it right

http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-election/donald-trump-is-headed-for-a-win-says-pr...

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Reserve Bank flags potential for further rate cuts, no 'contingency plan' for Trump presidency

Newly appointed Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has flagged the potential for interest rates to fall again, and says there is no "contingency plan" for markets if the United States elects Donald Trump as president in November.


http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-22/rba-phillip-lowe-on-donald-trump/7867948

Turnbull/coalition sycophants ... why are you not defending your mob.
Or have you been caught with your pants down ... again.
No trump contingency?

Quote:



Tuesday morning, our time, is the first debate between the war hawk, Hilary, and Tony Abbott like Trump.

If Trump is even competitive in this debate, markets across the globe will panic.
Then we will see if Turnbull has been asleep at the wheel.

Because Trump is aiming to provoke a trade war with our biggest market, China.

The Chinese pull back on investing in Australia, there goes our property market. This exposes our massive private debt and our inability to service that debt ... and so on.

Surely boy wonder Turnbull is wide awake to the coming crisis.
Or is he too busy selling Tony Abbott's agenda on the world stage.

____ wrote on Sep 25^th, 2016 at 3:59pm:


Link?

Baronvonrort wrote on Sep 25^th, 2016 at 4:15pm:


For serious 

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump will meet Monday night for their first debate in a virtual dead heat in the race for the White House, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, with the Democratic nominee's August advantage erased after recent difficulties and the GOP nominee still facing doubts about his qualifications and temperament.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/politics/ct-poll-virtual-tie-clin...

Likely voters split 46 percent for Clinton vs. 44 percent for Trump, with Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson at 5 percent and Green Party nominee Jill Stein at 1 percent. Among registered voters, Clinton and Trump are tied at 41 percent, with Johnson at 7 percent and Stein at 2 percent.

In a two-way matchup between the major-party nominees, Clinton tops Trump by 49 percent to 47 percent among likely voters, and the two are tied at 46 percent among all registered voters. Clinton's two-point edge among likely voters, in both the four-way and two-way ballot tests, is within the survey's 4.5 percentage-point margin of sampling error.

The findings underscore how much the presidential contest has tightened in recent weeks, after Clinton emerged from the two national conventions with a clear lead and with Trump on the defensive. In early September, Clinton led Trump by five points among likely voters. In early August, she led by eight points.

I dont know, ultimately I think the US congress would be too invested themselves to allow a trade war with China.  Remember, China is one of the largest market and manufacturing base for US products as well.    One just cant shut down factory in China, and open another in the USA.  It takes time and planning to shift things even if everything worked as he said.   And yes, if there is a trade war between the two biggest economies in the world, then there will no where for Australia to hide.   There is just simply no contingency that can prepare Australia for it in the government level.   

I probably be more worried about Trump on the nuclear warheads button and its foreign policies.   Because these is going to impact more realistically.  For example, if Trump decides to tear up the Iran Peace Deal, with no real backup policy, then expect the elected Western leaning government to fall, and fundamentalist to resume control.  This opens up another battle front in Iran, where Australia is obligated to send troops.  Now this is a trillion dollars that we dont have.