Australian Politics Forum - Natural Variation in regards to climate change

Pho Huc

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Natural Variation in regards to climate change
Dec 20^th, 2016 at 10:13pm

"global warming is a natural cycle"

Cyclical variations in climate are well-known to the public; we all studied the ice ages in school. However, climate isn't inherently cyclical.

A common misunderstanding of the climate system characterizes it like a pendulum. The planet will warm up to "cancel out" a previous period of cooling, spurred by some internal equilibrium. This view of the climate is incorrect. Internal variability will move energy between the ocean and the atmosphere, causing short-term warming and cooling of the surface in events such as El Nino and La Nina, and longer-term changes when similar cycles operate on decadal scales. However, internal forces do not cause climate change. Appreciable changes in climate are the result of changes in the energy balance of the Earth, which requires "external" forcings, such as changes in solar output, albedo, and atmospheric greenhouse gases. These forcings can be cyclical, as they are in the ice ages, but they can come in different shapes entirely.

For this reason, "it's just a natural cycle" is a bit of a cop-out argument. The Earth doesn't warm up because it feels like it. It warms up because something forces it to. Scientists keep track of natural forcings, but the observed warming of the planet over the second half of the 20th century can only be explained by adding in anthropogenic radiative forcings, namely increases in greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide.

https://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-natural-cycle.htm

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« Last Edit: Dec 20^th, 2016 at 10:23pm by Pho Huc »

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lee

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Re: Natural Variation in regards to climate change
Reply #1 - Dec 20^th, 2016 at 10:20pm

Pho Huc wrote on Dec 20^th, 2016 at 10:13pm:

Cyclical variations in climate are well-known to the public; we all studied the ice ages in school. However, climate isn't inherently cyclical.

Citation needed. Skeptical Science? DeSmogBlog?

Pho Huc wrote on Dec 20^th, 2016 at 10:13pm:

Appreciable changes in climate are the result of changes in the energy balance of the Earth, which requires "external" forcings, such as changes in solar output, albedo, and atmospheric greenhouse gases.

Roman Warming period? MWP? Minoan Warming?

What were the external "forcings" which caused these and warming since the LIA? The retreat of glaciers since 1850?

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« Last Edit: Dec 20^th, 2016 at 10:33pm by lee »

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Pho Huc

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Re: Natural Variation in regards to climate change
Reply #2 - Dec 20^th, 2016 at 10:28pm

lee wrote on Dec 20^th, 2016 at 10:20pm:

Pho Huc wrote on Dec 20^th, 2016 at 10:13pm:

Cyclical variations in climate are well-known to the public; we all studied the ice ages in school. However, climate isn't inherently cyclical.

Citation needed. Skeptical Science? DeSmogBlog?

Pho Huc wrote on Dec 20^th, 2016 at 10:13pm:

Appreciable changes in climate are the result of changes in the energy balance of the Earth, which requires "external" forcings, such as changes in solar output, albedo, and atmospheric greenhouse gases.

Roman Warming period? MWP? Minoan Warming?

What were the external "forcings" which caused these and warming since the LIA? The retreat of glaciers since 1850?

All you can do is question legitimate research.
Stop Obfuscating.

If you have a genuine problem with the explanation for why natural variation is not accepted by the scientific establishment then go right ahead, explain in detail what is wrong with it and post the credible research that supports your statement.

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lee

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Re: Natural Variation in regards to climate change
Reply #3 - Dec 20^th, 2016 at 10:34pm

' Scientists keep track of natural forcings, but the observed warming of the planet over the second half of the 20th century can only be explained by adding in anthropogenic radiative forcings, namely increases in greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. '

Climate Science is still in its infancy. They can't even determine what effects the interactions between various elements will be.

Have a look at IPCC AR5 Chapter 9 final pdf page 818 or 78 of 128 in your browser to see what is excluded from most models.

Planck Feedback, Water Vapour Feedback, Lapse rate Feedback, Surface Albedo, Cloud Feedback.

https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter09_FINAL.pdf

And tell us how much the scientists know.

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Pho Huc

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Re: Natural Variation in regards to climate change
Reply #4 - Dec 20^th, 2016 at 10:53pm

Ok

So what your saying is, your not happy with the quality of their models, therefore all the data pointing to to AGW is invalid.

Again, your trying to cherry pick from the mass of data supporting AGW, and as a result you can't explain your points clearly.

You don't have a credible alternate explanation for global warming.
After losing every point in a previous thread you were reduced to admitting that CO2 increase is anthropogenic and the Climate is getting hotter.

You ended up palming it off as "natural variation" and now that your running out of ground to retreat on your trying to escape into one on the massive IPCC reports(which flat out contradicts your opinion).

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lee

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Re: Natural Variation in regards to climate change
Reply #5 - Dec 20^th, 2016 at 11:21pm

Pho Huc wrote on Dec 20^th, 2016 at 10:53pm:

So what your saying is, your not happy with the quality of their models, therefore all the data pointing to to AGW is invalid.

Again, your trying to cherry pick from the mass of data supporting AGW, and as a result you can't explain your points clearly.

Please explain how you can reasonably use climate models that don't hindcast well, that don't predict at all as proof of AGW. It is the models in their various forms that are claimed to show AGW. The output of the models is not DATA.

Pho Huc wrote on Dec 20^th, 2016 at 10:53pm:

After losing every point in a previous thread you were reduced to admitting that CO2 increase is anthropogenic and the Climate is getting hotter.

Your too funny. I have always said that some of the CO2 increase is anthropogenic. And the climate is getting Warmer.

Apparently 287Kelvin to 287.9Kelvin. Scary stuff.

Pho Huc wrote on Dec 20^th, 2016 at 10:53pm:

You ended up palming it off as "natural variation" and now that your running out of ground to retreat on your trying to escape into one on the massive IPCC reports(which flat out contradicts your opinion).

I see you have not tried to disprove the null hypothesis. And you obviously haven't read the report, as to what it actually says. Not my problem.

Bye.

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Pho Huc

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Re: Natural Variation in regards to climate change
Reply #6 - Dec 21^st, 2016 at 12:31am

And a stunning rebuttal from Lee.

No new information provided.

Continues to harp on about climate models not being data (even though climate models form the basis for his opposition to AGW in this thread Roll Eyes

)

Selects part of in IPCC report which he believes allows him to discount the other 99% of it (fairly standard really practice for him really)

So, other than the IPCC report which states that climate change is anthropomorphic and the pro AGW paper you uploaded on another thread you have nothing to back up your opinions other than obfuscation and hearsay.

I guess that would give you even less than zero credibility?

-2 credibility?

I'm actually surprised you havn't been able to find any peer review publications that support your position, but I must admit I looked around a lot and couldn't find anything I wouldn't be ashamed to associated with.

Keep digging, the truth is out there!

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Jovial Monk

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Re: Natural Variation in regards to climate change
Reply #7 - Dec 21^st, 2016 at 9:42am

There is also the child like belief we are “still warming up after the little ice age. . .” as if the earth was covered in ice and we are recovering from that. LIA was caused by more than usual volcanic activity spewing aerosols into the upper atmosphere, reflecting sunlight back into space. Temperatures have long recovered from the LIA. Just have a look at the pathetic rubbish posted by Booby in his NEW LIA threads.

The other childlike belief is that the Medieval Warm Period was warmer than now. This is based on one paper discussing the MWP that deniers claimed to show the MWP had very high temperatures, this now gets repeated as a desperate mantra by deniers. Yet the paper relied on did not mention temperatures.

The only sensible conclusion, amply supported by spectrophotometry and carbon dating is that:

1. The extra CO2 in the atmosphere is from anthropogenic origins: burning fossil fuels

2. The extra CO2 in the atmosphere is blocking the escape of longer wave, heat, radiation back into space, warming the planet, acidifying oceans etc

Therefor the only sensible thing to do is;

3. To act to reduce GHG emissions. This can be done with energy efficiency, turning away from coal to nuclear and renewables. 100% renewable energy is a pipedream.

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« Last Edit: Dec 21^st, 2016 at 9:50am by Jovial Monk »

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lee

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Re: Natural Variation in regards to climate change
Reply #8 - Dec 21^st, 2016 at 10:39am

Pho Huc wrote on Dec 21^st, 2016 at 12:31am:

Selects part of in IPCC report which he believes allows him to discount the other 99% of it (fairly standard really practice for him really)

yes. That is the state of climate science. The climate models are the basis for the AGW claims. You want to disavow the UPCC AR5?

You keep repeating the alarmist mantra. It is the proponents of AGW that have to DISPROVE the null hypothesis, aka Natural Variability,

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lee

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Re: Natural Variation in regards to climate change
Reply #9 - Dec 21^st, 2016 at 10:43am

Jovial Monk wrote on Dec 21^st, 2016 at 9:42am:

1. The extra CO2 in the atmosphere is from anthropogenic origins: burning fossil fuels

Wow. you got something right.

Jovial Monk wrote on Dec 21^st, 2016 at 9:42am:

2. The extra CO2 in the atmosphere is blocking the escape of longer wave, heat, radiation back into space, warming the planet, acidifying oceans etc

Wow. CO2 may block some heat escaping the atmosphere, so does water vapour which is by far he major source of retaining heat. Just think if that water vapour hadn't been available during the LIA. Snowball earth.

The ocean is not acidifying. That is alarmist claptrap. pH levels vary by the hour, they are not static.

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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 47794 Gender:	Re: Natural Variation in regards to climate change Reply #10 - Dec 21^st, 2016 at 11:36am Oceans are acidifying. Denier! CO2 and H2O between them block a lot of heat from escaping back out to space. As a result the globe is warming.
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lee

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Re: Natural Variation in regards to climate change
Reply #11 - Dec 21^st, 2016 at 1:17pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Dec 21^st, 2016 at 11:36am:

Oceans are acidifying. Denier!

CO2 and H2O between them block a lot of heat from escaping back out to space. As a result the globe is warming.

Is pH above or below 7? If below 7 they would be acidifying. Above 7 they may be wandering towards neutrality, but with all the buffering in the ocean, unlikely to get there.

increasing H20 indeed is causing warming. Wink

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Pho Huc

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Re: Natural Variation in regards to climate change
Reply #12 - Dec 21^st, 2016 at 1:27pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Dec 21^st, 2016 at 11:36am:

Oceans are acidifying. Denier!

CO2 and H2O between them block a lot of heat from escaping back out to space. As a result the globe is warming.

Don't bother trying to argue with Lee. He relies on his debaters providing all the evidence. He is the one making all the baseless assertions.

What you do is say

Lee, please provide a credible peer reviewed publication that supports your assertion that the oceans are not becoming acidic.
He wont have anything, but will continue to demand proof from you.

He is the one making the outlandish statements with no backing.
The onus to provide evidence is on him.

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lee

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Re: Natural Variation in regards to climate change
Reply #13 - Dec 21^st, 2016 at 2:05pm

Pho Huc wrote on Dec 21^st, 2016 at 1:27pm:

Lee, please provide a credible peer reviewed publication that supports your assertion that the oceans are not becoming acidic.

'The ocean is not acidic, and model projections say the oceans won’t ever become acidic.'

http://www.epoca-project.eu/index.php/what-is-ocean-acidification/faq.html

So it is NOT becoming "acidic". Acidification is a term used to frighten the numpties, it has nothing to do with the ocean becoming acidic.

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Re: Natural Variation in regards to climate change
Reply #14 - Dec 21^st, 2016 at 2:16pm

lee wrote on Dec 21^st, 2016 at 2:05pm:

Pho Huc wrote on Dec 21^st, 2016 at 1:27pm:

Lee, please provide a credible peer reviewed publication that supports your assertion that the oceans are not becoming acidic.

'The ocean is not acidic, and model projections say the oceans won’t ever become acidic.'

http://www.epoca-project.eu/index.php/what-is-ocean-acidification/faq.html

So it is NOT becoming "acidic". Acidification is a term used to frighten the numpties, it has nothing to do with the ocean becoming acidic.

Not so according to NOAA.

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/story/What+is+Ocean+Acidification%3F

Quote:

... Estimates of future carbon dioxide levels, based on business as usual emission scenarios, indicate that by the end of this century the surface waters of the ocean could be nearly 150 percent more acidic, resulting in a pH that the oceans haven’t experienced for more than 20 million years.

The Biological Impacts

Ocean acidification is expected to impact ocean species to varying degrees. Photosynthetic algae and seagrasses may benefit from higher CO2 conditions in the ocean, as they require CO2 to live just like plants on land. On the other hand, studies have shown that a more acidic environment has a dramatic effect on some calcifying species, including oysters, clams, sea urchins, shallow water corals, deep sea corals, and calcareous plankton. When shelled organisms are at risk, the entire food web may also be at risk. Today, more than a billion people worldwide rely on food from the ocean as their primary source of protein. Many jobs and economies in the U.S. and around the world depend on the fish and shellfish in our oceans.

Pteropods

The pteropod, or “sea butterfly”, is a tiny sea creature about the size of a small pea. Pteropods are eaten by organisms ranging in size from tiny krill to whales and are a major food source for North Pacific juvenile salmon. The photos below show what happens to a pteropod’s shell when placed in sea water with pH and carbonate levels projected for the year 2100. The shell slowly dissolves after 45 days. Photo credit: David Liittschwager/National Geographic Stock. Used with permission. All rights reserved. National Geographic Images.

Pteropod image showing acidification results

Shellfish

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