Australian Politics Forum - Land use change as a driver of Climate variation

Pho Huc Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 985 Victoria Gender:	Re: Land use change as a driver of Climate variation Reply #15 - Dec 22^nd, 2016 at 3:26pm So Lee, DO you have any credible peer reviewed documents demonstrating that largest forcing agent is land use change instead of GHG's? Its getting to that part of the thread where you start demanding evidence from other people, even though we are discussing YOUR assertion.
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 17980 Gender:	Re: Land use change as a driver of Climate variation Reply #16 - Dec 22^nd, 2016 at 3:28pm Pho Huc wrote on Dec 22^nd, 2016 at 3:15pm: I quoted their findings that 80-85% of global warming is caused by GHG's. prove the 80-85% claim.
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Pho Huc

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Re: Land use change as a driver of Climate variation
Reply #17 - Dec 22^nd, 2016 at 4:57pm

lee wrote on Dec 22^nd, 2016 at 3:28pm:

Pho Huc wrote on Dec 22^nd, 2016 at 3:15pm:

I quoted their findings that 80-85% of global warming is caused by GHG's.

prove the 80-85% claim.

I cant, i'm only going to the figures you posted to support your arguments.

My opinion on this matter only as credible as the information your basing your opinion on.

Pho Huc wrote on Dec 22^nd, 2016 at 2:39pm:

lee wrote Yesterday at 11:56am:
“Land-use changes (e.g. cutting down forests to create farmland) have led to changes in the amount of sunlight reflected from the ground back into space (the surface albedo). The scale of these changes is estimated to be about one-fifth of the forcing on the global climate due to changes in emissions of greenhouse gases.'

Pho Huc wrote on Dec 22^nd, 2016 at 2:34pm:

lee wrote on Dec 14th, 2016 at 5:21pm:
You may want to cut down the trees. Plants respire too.

'They found that, averaged over the entire globe, the evapotranspiration effects of plants account for 16% of warming of the land surface, with greenhouse effects accounting for the rest. But in some regions, such as parts of North America and eastern Asia, it can be more than 25% of the total warming.
Every little bit helps.

You posted two statements, on of which states that GHG's contribute 80% the forcing in global warming.
The other states that GHG's contribute 85% of the warming effect.

Thats my source,

YOU!

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lee

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Re: Land use change as a driver of Climate variation
Reply #18 - Dec 22^nd, 2016 at 5:15pm

Pho Huc wrote on Dec 22^nd, 2016 at 4:57pm:

You posted two statements, on of which states that GHG's contribute 80% the forcing in global warming.

yes land use change has a 20% effect.

Pho Huc wrote on Dec 22^nd, 2016 at 4:57pm:

The other states that GHG's contribute 85% of the warming effect.

Yes plants contribute 16%.

That is a total change over two different types of forcings of ~36%.

Not just add 5% to 80%.

Of course that is only two variables affecting climate. There are others. Remember the models mostly don't do clouds, water vapour etc. They have an impact on climate also.

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Pho Huc

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Re: Land use change as a driver of Climate variation
Reply #19 - Dec 22^nd, 2016 at 5:27pm

lee wrote on Dec 22^nd, 2016 at 5:15pm:

Pho Huc wrote on Dec 22^nd, 2016 at 4:57pm:

You posted two statements, on of which states that GHG's contribute 80% the forcing in global warming.

yes land use change has a 20% effect.

Pho Huc wrote on Dec 22^nd, 2016 at 4:57pm:

The other states that GHG's contribute 85% of the warming effect.

Yes plants contribute 16%.

That is a total change over two different types of forcings of ~36%.

Not just add 5% to 80%.

Of course that is only two variables affecting climate. There are others. Remember the models mostly don't do clouds, water vapour etc. They have an impact on climate also.

Your contorting.

You have posted two credible statements.
Both statement clearly indicate that GHG's are the primary driver of AGW.

You understand that right?

Pho Huc wrote on Dec 22^nd, 2016 at 2:39pm:

lee wrote Yesterday at 11:56am:
“Land-use changes (e.g. cutting down forests to create farmland) have led to changes in the amount of sunlight reflected from the ground back into space (the surface albedo). The scale of these changes is estimated to be about one-fifth of the forcing on the global climate due to changes in emissions of greenhouse gases.'

Pho Huc wrote on Dec 22^nd, 2016 at 2:39pm:

lee wrote on Dec 14th, 2016 at 5:21pm:
You may want to cut down the trees. Plants respire too.

'They found that, averaged over the entire globe, the evapotranspiration effects of plants account for 16% of warming of the land surface, with greenhouse effects accounting for the rest. But in some regions, such as parts of North America and eastern Asia, it can be more than 25% of the total warming.
Every little bit helps.

Note, that both quotes quantify the effect as being much smaller than the effect of GHG's.

This is the BEST evidence Lee could find to support his assertion that AGW is not caused by GHG's.

Grin

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lee

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Re: Land use change as a driver of Climate variation
Reply #20 - Dec 22^nd, 2016 at 5:34pm

Pho Huc wrote on Dec 22^nd, 2016 at 5:27pm:

Note, that both quotes quantify the effect as being much smaller than the effect of GHG's.

This is the BEST evidence Lee could find to support his assertion that AGW is not caused by GHG's.

Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin

Your the one that came up with the claim of 80-85%. Live with it.

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Pho Huc

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Re: Land use change as a driver of Climate variation
Reply #21 - Dec 22^nd, 2016 at 5:40pm

Pho Huc wrote on Dec 22^nd, 2016 at 4:57pm:

lee

wrote Yesterday at 11:56am:
“Land-use changes (e.g. cutting down forests to create farmland) have led to changes in the amount of sunlight reflected from the ground back into space (the surface albedo). The scale of these changes is estimated to be about one-fifth of the forcing on the global climate due to changes in emissions of greenhouse gases.'

80 %

Pho Huc wrote on Dec 22^nd, 2016 at 4:57pm:

lee

wrote on Dec 14th, 2016 at 5:21pm:
You may want to cut down the trees. Plants respire too.

'They found that, averaged over the entire globe, the evapotranspiration effects of plants account for 16% of warming of the land surface, with greenhouse effects accounting for the rest. But in some regions, such as parts of North America and eastern Asia, it can be more than 25% of the total warming.
Every little bit helps.

85%

This wasn't you? it sure looks like you!

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 17980 Gender:	Re: Land use change as a driver of Climate variation Reply #22 - Dec 22^nd, 2016 at 5:49pm Yes. One metric for land use change and then another for the plants. Two entirely different measurements, but you want to count them as one. But to be pedantic 100% - 16% = 84%.
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Pho Huc

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Re: Land use change as a driver of Climate variation
Reply #23 - Dec 22^nd, 2016 at 5:57pm

I agree that the maths doesn't add up.
Since it was data you posted that is really your problem though.

The implication is that both of the forces you claimed were responsible for climate change(land use change and water vapour) actually play a smaller role in climate change than your purporting since both the papers posit a similar percentage of the increase in temperatures from GHG's.

The thing that you refuse to acknowledge is that both the documents you quoted conclude that 80-85% of the forcing on the climate is produced by GHG's. Its clearly written, and it was posted by you.

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lee

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Re: Land use change as a driver of Climate variation
Reply #24 - Dec 22^nd, 2016 at 6:28pm

Pho Huc wrote on Dec 22^nd, 2016 at 5:57pm:

I agree that the maths doesn't add up.

Yep Your maths is bad. Can't even add 2 discrete components together.

Pho Huc wrote on Dec 22^nd, 2016 at 5:57pm:

Since it was data you posted that is really your problem though.

Since it was scientific data - not my problem.
Pho Huc wrote on Dec 22^nd, 2016 at 5:57pm:

The implication is that both of the forces you claimed were responsible for climate change(land use change and water vapour) actually play a smaller role in climate change than your purporting since both the papers posit a similar percentage of the increase in temperatures from GHG's.

Again - 2 discrete components.

Pho Huc wrote on Dec 22^nd, 2016 at 5:57pm:

The thing that you refuse to acknowledge is that both the documents you quoted conclude that 80-85% of the forcing on the climate is produced by GHG's

You really are mathematically challenged aren't you?

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Pho Huc

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Re: Land use change as a driver of Climate variation
Reply #25 - Dec 22^nd, 2016 at 7:28pm

As previously stated I agree that the numbers in the papers your using to justify your position do not add up. That doesn't strengthen your position however, since they are papers YOU were referencing.

Since it was data you posted that is really your problem that the maths dont add up.

And your still refusing to acknowledge that 80-85% of climate forcing is caused bu GHG's. Again, according to documents YOU referenced.

If you want to dispute this thats fine, but also retract any other points you were relying on these papers to prove, mainly the effects of water vapour and land use change on climate variation.

Its not maths, Its logic that you should be worried about!

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Pho Huc

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Re: Land use change as a driver of Climate variation
Reply #26 - Dec 22^nd, 2016 at 7:33pm

lee wrote on Dec 22^nd, 2016 at 5:49pm:

Yes. One metric for land use change and then another for the plants.

Two entirely different measurements, but you want to count them as one.

But to be pedantic 100% - 16% = 84%. Wink

This is the post where you state the two measurements you posted shouldn't be combined

lee wrote on Dec 22^nd, 2016 at 5:15pm:

Yes plants contribute 16%.

That is a total change over two different types of forcings of ~36%.

Not just add 5% to 80%.

Of course that is only two variables affecting climate. There are others. Remember the models mostly don't do clouds, water vapour etc. They have an impact on climate also.

This is the post where you state the two measurements you posted should be combined

As I have posted elsewhere, the inconsistencies in your position undermines your argument.

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lee

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Re: Land use change as a driver of Climate variation
Reply #27 - Dec 22^nd, 2016 at 8:26pm

Pho Huc wrote on Dec 22^nd, 2016 at 7:33pm:

lee wrote Today at 3:15pm:
Yes plants contribute 16%.

That is a total change over two different types of forcings of ~36%.

Nope. That's how they should be combined. You want to say they are essentially the same thing 80% being the remainder from one fifth land use change. 85% being the remainder from the 16% evapotranspiration. What you're saying it is only between those 2 figures.

That's like saying evapotranspiration is the same thing as land use change.

Pho Huc wrote on Dec 22^nd, 2016 at 7:33pm:

lee wrote Today at 3:15pm:
Yes plants contribute 16%.

That is a total change over two different types of forcings of ~36%.

Not just add 5% to 80%.

Of course that is only two variables affecting climate. There are others. Remember the models mostly don't do clouds, water vapour etc. They have an impact on climate also.

This is the post where you state the two measurements you posted should be combined

Yep. Entirely consistent with the opening one. Talk about comprehension issues.

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Pho Huc Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 985 Victoria Gender:	Re: Land use change as a driver of Climate variation Reply #28 - Dec 22^nd, 2016 at 9:02pm Do you think anyone could understand the point you think your making?
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 17980 Gender:	Re: Land use change as a driver of Climate variation Reply #29 - Dec 22^nd, 2016 at 11:21pm Pho Huc wrote on Dec 22^nd, 2016 at 9:02pm: Do you think anyone could understand the point you think your making? Certainly not you, Mr 80-85%.
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