Bobby. wrote on Sep 4
th, 2017 at 10:56am:
tickleandrose wrote on Sep 4
th, 2017 at 10:40am:
To be frank there was never any "appeasement". A truce was signed all those years ago, but never a peace treatie. It was signed because neither side was winning, and back in US, there were basically no support for the ongoing Korean War.
Peace was maintained over the years, not due to appeasement, but due to self assured mutual destruction. If war break out, it could cause untold amount of economic destruction on the US's already fragile and debt ridden economy. And at the same time, US's many enemies would come out of wood work - in the middle east, central asia, Africa etc etc. It would make the great depression a cake walk.
Well China had better do something fast as time has run out.
It's time to get survival provisions in your cupboards:
cans of baked beans, spam & fish,
also - a large bag of rice.
I think what we should worry about is not how many bombs that North Korea have. But how will it impact on Australia when US decided to do an Iraq war over that. And it depends who triggers first.
North Korea first:
As soon as something happens, the South Korea capital would be come under heavy bombardment. This would immediately cause massive causalities, before South Korea military can respond. This would cause a ripple of economic devastation around the war starting in Asia. Australia will be impacted - China, South Korea, Japan and USA - pretty much our trading partners - and the results will be immediate.
USA first.
Lets face it, the USA is unlikely to use atomic bomb on North Korea. As the resulting nuclear cloud will drift towards Japan, South Korea, and possibly China and Russia. It would be messy, and the USA will find no friends. So, has to be some surgical strike, or even MOAB. These however, would require a simultaneous strike with a large air and naval force. And North Korea is crazy but not stupid, it would be able to see it coming from miles away. And will retaliate, by striking against South Korea, and Japan.
Now, the cease fire call were signed by China, Russian, North Korea, South Korea and USA. North Korea and South Korea are still at war. So if USA breaks the cease fire, then it potentially mean that China and Russia will once again be involved as well. Because, the agree is for cease fire on the 38th parallel.
In the best case senario, South Korea and the USA will probably be able to defeat North Korea (without Russia and China butting in - thats a big if) - say in matter of a year. There will be at least millions of Refugees fleeing towards China, and also millions more who cannot leave and choose to stay. I can foresee civilian casualties into millions - from the actual war campaign, and the chaos that follows it (e.g. starvation, famine, and disease). All these will happen at the same time that most markets in the world is tanking. South Korea will not be able to feed or keep order in North Korea. North Korea will divide, and probably turn into a second Afghanistan with rule of factional warlords.
At same time, sensing USA's and China occupation and weakness. A few things may happen:
1. There will be resurgence of terrorism and extremitism in Central Asia, Middle East, and Africa.
2. There will be a low depression in USA, and along with it Australia.
3. In term, USA will balance that out with China, by supporting Taiwan independence, Tibet Independence, the South China Sea dispute, and India/China border dispute.
4. The USA will balance out Russia, by stirring up more trouble in the Middle east, Syria, and also Ukraine / Belerus issue.
And all this, will have the potential to get worse, until every country in the world is affected.