Howard for PM: How Lazarus with a triple bypass could save the day
The Australian
12:00AM November 11, 2017
Peter Van Onselen
Let’s not bury the lead: this opinion piece argues for a John Howard comeback, explaining how and why it’s a viable idea. Do I think it’s going to happen? Of course not. Is the piece a lighthearted game of fantasy football applied to the political class? Yes, it is. However, I’d invite readers to try to identify the downside to any of the implications that follow.
John Alexander looks certain to fall foul of section 44 of the Constitution, meaning a by-election in his northwest Sydney seat of Bennelong is in the offing. On a margin of less than 8 per cent in the present political climate, it will be a tough hold for the government. Lose the seat and Malcolm Turnbull loses his majority, and that’s before we even consider other potential by-elections that may ensue from the citizenship fiasco.
It has been speculated that Alexander may retire at the next election, which means he may be inclined not to recontest his seat at a by-election. Bennelong is Howard’s old seat. He lost it at the 2007 election, having represented the area for more than 30 years.
Fast forward 10 years and Australians more broadly lament the loss of good governance by all political parties since the end of the Howard era. It’s hard to imagine him losing the seat at a by-election, especially if the comeback were step one in a two-step process: a return to the prime ministership. Australians are crying out for stability in Canberra.
When Howard lost office the “it’s time” factor brought him down. His net satisfaction rating was still positive. (For context, Turnbull and Bill Shorten have ratings worse than minus 20.) The economy was humming along nicely. We were in surplus, with no net debt. The unemployment rate had a four in front of it and economic growth was strong.
In short, Australians felt comfortable moving on from Howard because they took prosperity for granted, but what we as a nation have experienced since then has been nothing short of chaotic. While events have contributed to the changed economic landscape, that doesn’t account for the political volatility in Canberra that has beset both major parties during their time in office. Howard was a safe pair of hands and even a new generation of voters would likely embrace him, having been told by older Australians how much more stable politics was under his watch.
Howard was the last quality leader following on a golden run from Bob Hawke to Paul Keating to Howard. He reformed the tax system, gun laws and industrial relations. Labor might try for an IR scare campaign but that would be a marginal concern paralleled with the positive offerings a Howard comeback would provide.
The simple fact is that even if ideological opponents of Howard would despise his return, swinging voters and traditional Liberals would embrace him en masse.
The elephant in the room is Howard’s age: he’s 78. While I’ve long argued that ageing MPs should be put out to pasture to be replaced by new blood, such reasoning doesn’t extend to leadership. We live in an ageing society. The retirement age is going up and Howard is certainly a young 78, as sharp and quick as he always has been. Politics is his passion. I bet if approached he’d be willing to again serve.
The transition would need to be on agreed terms. Resistance by Turnbull or anyone else would kill off this idea, for the same reasons the coup reactionaries keep spruiking isn’t viable. Does anyone think the lion’s share of the Liberal partyroom wouldn’t embrace a Howard comeback?
And who better to get right-wing conservatives under control? To placate right-wing shock jocks without giving in to their more populist demands? Howard would need to accept generational change in this country. He would need to understand his role wouldn’t be as a handbrake on progress, whatever his personal views. His comeback would be to take advantage of his competent management. Howard argued against same-sex marriage, for example, but he would need to embrace a plebiscite result that favoured changing the Marriage Act.
Turnbull and Peter Dutton are holding the line on Manus Island and New Zealand’s offer to resettle 150 asylum-seekers. It’s worth reminding Australians that while Howard presided over the Tampa affair and the tough border policies that followed, he quietly settled most asylum-seekers here when the glare of the cameras receded. No one could call Howard a soft touch on border protection.
How would the frontbench be recalibrated? If Turnbull didn’t retire, he could take up the treasurership, a role he’s perfectly suited to. If not, give it to Mathias Cormann. If anyone has the conservative credentials to break convention and make a senator treasurer, it’s Howard.
pt 1.