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AGW - anthropogenic global warming (Read 3962 times)
lee
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Re: AGW - anthropogenic global warming
Reply #15 - Apr 30th, 2018 at 9:38pm
 
Wildfires -

Quote:
Fire is an essential Earth system process that alters ecosystem and atmospheric composition. Here we assessed long-term fire trends using multiple satellite data sets. We found that global burned area declined by 24.3 ± 8.8% over the past 18 years. The estimated decrease in burned area remained robust after adjusting for precipitation variability and was largest in savannas. Agricultural expansion and intensification were primary drivers of declining fire activity. Fewer and smaller fires reduced aerosol concentrations, modified vegetation structure, and increased the magnitude of the terrestrial carbon sink. Fire models were unable to reproduce the pattern and magnitude of observed declines, suggesting that they may overestimate fire emissions in future projections. Using economic and demographic variables, we developed a conceptual model for predicting fire in human-dominated landscapes.


http://science.sciencemag.org/content/356/6345/1356
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Bobby.
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Re: AGW - anthropogenic global warming
Reply #16 - Apr 30th, 2018 at 9:54pm
 
Gordon wrote on Apr 30th, 2018 at 8:01pm:
Bobby. wrote on Apr 30th, 2018 at 7:54pm:
Gordon wrote on Apr 30th, 2018 at 7:49pm:
Agw is real but it's only part of the puzzle.

We should be striving for clean energy because pollution is a known.



Definitely -
that's why renewable energy should be used &
research put into a large scale Thorium power station.


One thing you will notice is lefty atheists are catastrophisng agw because all religions and cultures need some kind of end times story.  Climate change is theirs.

I believe in agw, I believe in renewables and I also believe no matter how much climate changes, humans will continue to flourish.



Then again - the climate models are so wrong that exactly the opposite could happen -
instead of getting hotter it could get colder or
we could have climate extremes at both ends of the scale.
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DonDeeHippy
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Re: AGW - anthropogenic global warming
Reply #17 - May 1st, 2018 at 7:36am
 
Bobby. wrote on Apr 30th, 2018 at 9:54pm:
Gordon wrote on Apr 30th, 2018 at 8:01pm:
Bobby. wrote on Apr 30th, 2018 at 7:54pm:
Gordon wrote on Apr 30th, 2018 at 7:49pm:
Agw is real but it's only part of the puzzle.

We should be striving for clean energy because pollution is a known.



Definitely -
that's why renewable energy should be used &
research put into a large scale Thorium power station.


One thing you will notice is lefty atheists are catastrophisng agw because all religions and cultures need some kind of end times story.  Climate change is theirs.

I believe in agw, I believe in renewables and I also believe no matter how much climate changes, humans will continue to flourish.



Then again - the climate models are so wrong that exactly the opposite could happen -
instead of getting hotter it could get colder or
we could have climate extremes at both ends of the scale.

The proof please Bobby, some peer reviews would be nice  Smiley
When u say thorium I assume your talking about various gen4 nuclear stations being researched atm ?
Wouldnt it be better to refer to the reactor as in MSR (molten salt Reactor) ?
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« Last Edit: May 1st, 2018 at 7:49am by DonDeeHippy »  

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Bobby.
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Re: AGW - anthropogenic global warming
Reply #18 - May 1st, 2018 at 7:40am
 
DonDeeHippy wrote on May 1st, 2018 at 7:36am:
Bobby. wrote on Apr 30th, 2018 at 9:54pm:
Gordon wrote on Apr 30th, 2018 at 8:01pm:
Bobby. wrote on Apr 30th, 2018 at 7:54pm:
Gordon wrote on Apr 30th, 2018 at 7:49pm:
Agw is real but it's only part of the puzzle.

We should be striving for clean energy because pollution is a known.



Definitely -
that's why renewable energy should be used &
research put into a large scale Thorium power station.


One thing you will notice is lefty atheists are catastrophisng agw because all religions and cultures need some kind of end times story.  Climate change is theirs.

I believe in agw, I believe in renewables and I also believe no matter how much climate changes, humans will continue to flourish.



Then again - the climate models are so wrong that exactly the opposite could happen -
instead of getting hotter it could get colder or
we could have climate extremes at both ends of the scale.

The proof please Bobby, some peer reviews would be nice  Smiley



333 pages of evidence here for you to look through -
longer than most books:

http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1464603949/0#0
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DonDeeHippy
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Re: AGW - anthropogenic global warming
Reply #19 - May 1st, 2018 at 7:51am
 
Bobby. wrote on May 1st, 2018 at 7:40am:
DonDeeHippy wrote on May 1st, 2018 at 7:36am:
Bobby. wrote on Apr 30th, 2018 at 9:54pm:
Gordon wrote on Apr 30th, 2018 at 8:01pm:
Bobby. wrote on Apr 30th, 2018 at 7:54pm:
Gordon wrote on Apr 30th, 2018 at 7:49pm:
Agw is real but it's only part of the puzzle.

We should be striving for clean energy because pollution is a known.



Definitely -
that's why renewable energy should be used &
research put into a large scale Thorium power station.


One thing you will notice is lefty atheists are catastrophisng agw because all religions and cultures need some kind of end times story.  Climate change is theirs.

I believe in agw, I believe in renewables and I also believe no matter how much climate changes, humans will continue to flourish.



Then again - the climate models are so wrong that exactly the opposite could happen -
instead of getting hotter it could get colder or
we could have climate extremes at both ends of the scale.

The proof please Bobby, some peer reviews would be nice  Smiley



333 pages of evidence here for you to look through -
longer than most books:

http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1464603949/0#0

yes not evidence, need peer reviews not youtube or opinions or biased charts, real peer review, the ONLY real truths because they can be scrutinized, opinions cant.
I just looked at your link and this was in it

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Re: New Ice Age..
Reply #3 - May 31st, 2016 at 7:45pm
 
gees.. haven't the Global Warming Nutters gone quiet..   

I dont think that can be considered proof its justs a lot of banter.
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Bobby.
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Re: AGW - anthropogenic global warming
Reply #20 - May 1st, 2018 at 7:55am
 
DonDeeHippy wrote on May 1st, 2018 at 7:51am:
yes not evidence, need peer reviews not youtube or opinions or biased charts, real peer review, the ONLY real truths because they can be scrutinized, opinions cant.




There is plenty of scientific stuff there too.
But - I would like this thread to take off -
let's see all the AGW evidence -
will we get 333 pages on this thread?
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DonDeeHippy
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Re: AGW - anthropogenic global warming
Reply #21 - May 1st, 2018 at 8:31am
 
Bobby. wrote on May 1st, 2018 at 7:55am:
DonDeeHippy wrote on May 1st, 2018 at 7:51am:
yes not evidence, need peer reviews not youtube or opinions or biased charts, real peer review, the ONLY real truths because they can be scrutinized, opinions cant.




There is plenty of scientific stuff there too.
But - I would like this thread to take off -
let's see all the AGW evidence -
will we get 333 pages on this thread?

ok here r a few
James L. Powell, a former member of the National Science Board and current executive director of the National Physical Science Consortium, analyzed published research on global warming and climate change between 1991 and 2012 and found that of the 13,950 articles in peer-reviewed journals, only 24 rejected anthropogenic global warming.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surveys_of_scientists%27_views_on_climate_change

this article seams to be the source of the new ice age thinking (i know not peer reviewed but hey)
https://theconversation.com/the-mini-ice-age-hoopla-is-a-giant-failure-of-scienc
e-communication-45037

ok booby we r talking 50000 -60000 peer reviews, not 300 pages of fat guys behind computers insulting each other.

http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024024

I'm sure there are peer reviews against as well, just not many climate scientist have put them forward.
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Re: AGW - anthropogenic global warming
Reply #22 - May 1st, 2018 at 10:52am
 
Thanks Don,
keep up the good work:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surveys_of_scientists%27_views_on_climate_change



When asked "What do you think is the % probability of human-induced global warming raising global average temperatures by two degrees Celsius or more during the next 50 to 100 years?’’: 19% of respondents answered less than 50% probability, 56% said over 50%, and 26% didn't know.[22]


When asked what they regard as "the likely effects of global climate change in the next 50 to 100 years," on a scale of 1 to 10, from Trivial to Catastrophic: 13% of respondents replied 1 to 3 (trivial/mild), 44% replied 4 to 7 (moderate), 41% replied 8 to 10 (severe/catastrophic), and 2% didn't know.[22]


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lee
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Re: AGW - anthropogenic global warming
Reply #23 - May 1st, 2018 at 12:34pm
 
DonDeeHippy wrote on May 1st, 2018 at 8:31am:
ok here r a few
James L. Powell, a former member of the National Science Board and current executive director of the National Physical Science Consortium, analyzed published research on global warming and climate change between 1991 and 2012 and found that of the 13,950 articles in peer-reviewed journals, only 24 rejected anthropogenic global warming.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surveys_of_scientists%27_views_on_climate_change


1. How many explicitly said it was AGW?

2. Is that abstracts again or scientists?

We could go to Cook et al 2013 -

"Abstract
Download video Download transcript

We analyze the evolution of the scientific consensus on anthropogenic global warming (AGW) in the peer-reviewed scientific literature, examining 11 944 climate abstracts from 1991–2011 matching the topics 'global climate change' or 'global warming'. We find that 66.4% of abstracts expressed no position on AGW, 32.6% endorsed AGW, 0.7% rejected AGW and 0.3% were uncertain about the cause of global warming. Among abstracts expressing a position on AGW, 97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming."

http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024024

Similar sized study. So 97.1% of 32.6% of abstracts, not scientists, supported the consensus position.

It subsequently gets reported as 97% of scientists. Don't you just love the way they report consensus?
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Re: AGW - anthropogenic global warming
Reply #24 - May 3rd, 2018 at 3:56pm
 
Interesting article. Is it AGW.... well I think so.

Shock and Thaw—Alaskan Sea Ice Just Took a Steep, Unprecedented Dive

Weather conditions and a boost from global warming led to the stunning record low ice cover in winter 2018

April should be prime walrus hunting season for the native villages that dot Alaska’s remote western coast. In years past the winter sea ice where the animals rest would still be abundant, providing prime targets for subsistence hunters. But this year sea-ice coverage as of late April was more like what would be expected for mid-June, well into the melt season. These conditions are the continuation of a winter-long scarcity of sea ice in the Bering Sea—a decline so stark it has stunned researchers who have spent years watching Arctic sea ice dwindle due to climate change.

Winter sea ice cover in the Bering Sea did not just hit a record low in 2018; it was half that of the previous lowest winter on record (2001), says John Walsh, chief scientist of the International Arctic Research Center at The University of Alaska Fairbanks. “There’s never ever been anything remotely like this for sea ice” in the Bering Sea going back more than 160 years, says Rick Thoman, an Alaska-based climatologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

more here ==> https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/shock-and-thaw-alaskan-sea-ice-just-t...

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Re: AGW - anthropogenic global warming
Reply #25 - May 3rd, 2018 at 4:04pm
 
Changes in the US.

We need to see then assess the changes we see and determine if AGW is responsible. if so, it could lead us to act. Real impact may overcome the collective denial of AGW. I live in hope.

A Nation Divided: Arid/Humid Climate Boundary in U.S. Creeps Eastward

The stark climatic border in the U.S. separating the sultry east from the dry west is rapidly shifting—a change that could have a significant future impact

To travel westward across the U.S. is to experience a striking landscape metamorphosis. Stately hardwood trees give way to squat shrubs, verdant cornfields to brown wheat and lush grasslands to cacti and creosote bush. The air dries out and the land is often parched. This rather abrupt shift from the humid east to arid west occurs along a border that slices neatly through the Canadian province of Manitoba, then the Dakotas, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas and into eastern Mexico. The divide is so stark airline passengers can see it—a patchwork quilt of green farms on one side, a vast expanse of brown and gold on the other.

And now this boundary is on the move, creeping east as global temperatures rise, according to new research published last month in Earth Interactions. Given the line’s historical role in shaping U.S. westward expansion, its shift could alter the agriculture that plays a crucial role in the economy of the Great Plains states.

More here ==> https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/a-nation-divided-arid-humid-climate-b...
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lee
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Re: AGW - anthropogenic global warming
Reply #26 - May 3rd, 2018 at 4:21pm
 
Super Nova wrote on May 3rd, 2018 at 3:56pm:
Winter sea ice cover in the Bering Sea did not just hit a record low in 2018;



Oh only 160 years. I guess they forgot the logs of the Hudson's Bay Company. Which are replete with weather, ice conditions etc for the Bering Strait. Wink

From your reference -

"A confluence of conditions—including warm air and ocean temperatures, along with persistent storms—set the stage for this dramatic downturn in a region that to date has not been one of the main contributors to the overall reduction of Arctic sea ice. Whereas a degree of random weather variability teed up this remarkable winter, the background warming of the Arctic is what provides the “extra kick” to reach such unheard-of extremes, Walsh says."
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Re: AGW - anthropogenic global warming
Reply #27 - May 3rd, 2018 at 4:32pm
 
Super Nova wrote on May 3rd, 2018 at 4:04pm:
A Nation Divided: Arid/Humid Climate Boundary in U.S. Creeps Eastward



From the actual study -

"The 100th meridian bisects the Great Plains of the United States and effectively divides the continent into more arid western and less arid eastern halves and is well expressed in terms of vegetation, land hydrology, crops, and the farm economy. Here, it is considered how this arid–humid divide will change in intensity and location during the current century under rising greenhouse gases. [/highlightI]t is first shown that state-of-the-art[highlight] climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project generally underestimate the degree of aridity of the United States and simulate an arid–humid divide that is too diffuse. These biases are traced to excessive precipitation and evapotranspiration and inadequate blocking of eastward moisture flux by the Pacific coastal ranges and Rockies. Bias-corrected future projections are developed that modify observationally based measures of aridity by the model-projected fractional changes in aridity. Aridity increases across the United States, and the aridity gradient weakens. "

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/EI-D-17-0012.1

So it is a projection, based on models. There is no observational data at all.

Once again the "Scientific" American shows it is unscientific.
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Re: AGW - anthropogenic global warming
Reply #28 - May 3rd, 2018 at 7:52pm
 
lee wrote on May 3rd, 2018 at 4:21pm:
Super Nova wrote on May 3rd, 2018 at 3:56pm:
Winter sea ice cover in the Bering Sea did not just hit a record low in 2018;



Oh only 160 years. I guess they forgot the logs of the Hudson's Bay Company. Which are replete with weather, ice conditions etc for the Bering Strait. Wink

From your reference -

"A confluence of conditions—including warm air and ocean temperatures, along with persistent storms—set the stage for this dramatic downturn in a region that to date has not been one of the main contributors to the overall reduction of Arctic sea ice. Whereas a degree of random weather variability teed up this remarkable winter, the background warming of the Arctic is what provides the “extra kick” to reach such unheard-of extremes, Walsh says."


Lee,

I guess 160 years is what we have data for. Anecdotal evidence of loggers doesn't cut it but i see your point.

I will run the data provided but the point is, it is tracking what has happened since we started recording. Something is happening, what is the root cause?
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Re: AGW - anthropogenic global warming
Reply #29 - May 3rd, 2018 at 7:54pm
 
lee wrote on May 3rd, 2018 at 4:32pm:
Super Nova wrote on May 3rd, 2018 at 4:04pm:
A Nation Divided: Arid/Humid Climate Boundary in U.S. Creeps Eastward



From the actual study -

"The 100th meridian bisects the Great Plains of the United States and effectively divides the continent into more arid western and less arid eastern halves and is well expressed in terms of vegetation, land hydrology, crops, and the farm economy. Here, it is considered how this arid–humid divide will change in intensity and location during the current century under rising greenhouse gases. [/highlightI]t is first shown that state-of-the-art[highlight] climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project generally underestimate the degree of aridity of the United States and simulate an arid–humid divide that is too diffuse. These biases are traced to excessive precipitation and evapotranspiration and inadequate blocking of eastward moisture flux by the Pacific coastal ranges and Rockies. Bias-corrected future projections are developed that modify observationally based measures of aridity by the model-projected fractional changes in aridity. Aridity increases across the United States, and the aridity gradient weakens. "

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/EI-D-17-0012.1

So it is a projection, based on models. There is no observational data at all.

Once again the "Scientific" American shows it is unscientific.


It is scientific to declare their ajustments in their findings and the projection models. So I don't see your point. if you declare it, not hide it, it is an assumption like any other. That doesn't mean it is to be dismissed because you want a degree of clarity on a chaotic system that is not possible.
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