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AGW - anthropogenic global warming (Read 3954 times)
Super Nova
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AGW - anthropogenic global warming
Apr 30th, 2018 at 6:50pm
 
AGW - anthropogenic global warming.

anthropogenic - created by people or caused by human activity: anthropogenic pollution.

a thread to the facts, articles ...etc around AGW. (to start again without the noise)
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Super Nova
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Re: AGW - anthropogenic global warming
Reply #1 - Apr 30th, 2018 at 6:56pm
 
Article showing that a new field in science is expanding to assign events to be due to AGW.

Scientists Can Now Blame Individual Natural Disasters on Climate Change

Extreme event attribution is one of the most rapidly expanding areas of climate science

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/scientists-can-now-blame-individual-n...

......

And as the science continues to mature, it may have ramifications for society. Legal experts suggest that attribution studies could play a major role in lawsuits brought by citizens against companies, industries or even governments. They could help reshape climate adaptation policies throughout a country or even the world. And perhaps more immediately, the young field of research could be capturing the public's attention in ways that long-term projections for the future cannot.

"I think the public and many policymakers don't really take those 100-year forecasts very seriously," said Allen, who is now one of the world's leading experts in attribution science. "They are much more seriously interested in the question of what is happening now and why—which boils down to attribution."

.....

Future floods are less likely to go uninvestigated. According to Christidis, the Met Office scientist, extreme event attribution is not only a matter of scientific advancement but a public obligation.
"Every time we have a high-impact, catastrophic, perhaps extreme event happening, people are invariably asking the question, 'Is this climate change?'" Christidis said.

"The whole science of event attribution developed so that we can provide scientifically robust answers to these questions. If we the experts don't do this, then there will be people who are not qualified who will go and fill in the gaps. So this is the very important challenge that we are called to face."
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Re: AGW - anthropogenic global warming
Reply #2 - Apr 30th, 2018 at 7:06pm
 
While the forecasting models are never accurate, people and government may listen more if recent events can be attributed (if they are) to AGW. People only understand what happens to them and they can assess the cost in lives and money to determine if something should be done if the projections show, it will only get worse.
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lee
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Re: AGW - anthropogenic global warming
Reply #3 - Apr 30th, 2018 at 7:12pm
 
What a crock. They even mention the California drought of 2010 as an example.

Yet California has a history of  drought.

"But scientists say that in the more ancient past, California and the Southwest occasionally had even worse droughts — so-called megadroughts — that lasted decades. At least in parts of California, in two cases in the last 1,200 years, these dry spells lingered for up to two centuries.

The new normal, scientists say, may in fact be an old one."

https://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/14/science/californias-history-of-drought-repeat...

Maybe that was due to AGW too. Wink

Scientists can blame? Will it stick?

Then of course there were floods on the Downs in England, but that was because they didn't keep the rivers clear. Sediment build up.
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Re: AGW - anthropogenic global warming
Reply #4 - Apr 30th, 2018 at 7:27pm
 
Hi Super Nova,
there is strong evidence for anthropogenic global warming.

Please feel free to present as much evidence as you want.
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Re: AGW - anthropogenic global warming
Reply #5 - Apr 30th, 2018 at 7:39pm
 
lee wrote on Apr 30th, 2018 at 7:12pm:
What a crock. They even mention the California drought of 2010 as an example.

Yet California has a history of  drought.

"But scientists say that in the more ancient past, California and the Southwest occasionally had even worse droughts — so-called megadroughts — that lasted decades. At least in parts of California, in two cases in the last 1,200 years, these dry spells lingered for up to two centuries.

The new normal, scientists say, may in fact be an old one."

https://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/14/science/californias-history-of-drought-repeat...

Maybe that was due to AGW too. Wink

Scientists can blame? Will it stick?

Then of course there were floods on the Downs in England, but that was because they didn't keep the rivers clear. Sediment build up.


Hi lee,

It is a good point you raise that we have a history of extreme events. I am showing that maybe if we can acurately attribute some to AGW then maybe we (normal citizens) need to understand our response. Doing nothing is not an option. Being a headless chook is also not an option.

So balance is needed in the debate and then when it is clear, action that is balanced and appropriate is needed, to avoid the worst case scenarios.
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Re: AGW - anthropogenic global warming
Reply #6 - Apr 30th, 2018 at 7:47pm
 
I remember reading up on evolution and creationism and the different approaches and I finally got to a big answer, peer reviews, evolution about 10 years ago had 1000’s of peer reviews and creationism about 3 and 2 them the guy was in jail for fraud.
So instead on biquring so much, why not quote some peer reviews on for and against instead of newspaper articles and home spun antidotes.
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Re: AGW - anthropogenic global warming
Reply #7 - Apr 30th, 2018 at 7:48pm
 
DonDeeHippy wrote on Apr 30th, 2018 at 7:47pm:
I remember reading up on evolution and creationism and the different approaches and I finally got to a big answer, peer reviews, evolution about 10 years ago had 1000’s of peer reviews and creationism about 3 and 2 then the guy was in jail for fraud.
So instead on biquring so much, why not quote some peer reviews on for and against instead of newspaper articles and home spun antidotes.

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Re: AGW - anthropogenic global warming
Reply #8 - Apr 30th, 2018 at 7:49pm
 
Agw is real but it's only part of the puzzle.

We should be striving for clean energy because pollution is a known.
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Re: AGW - anthropogenic global warming
Reply #9 - Apr 30th, 2018 at 7:51pm
 
DonDeeHippy wrote on Apr 30th, 2018 at 7:47pm:
I remember reading up on evolution and creationism and the different approaches and I finally got to a big answer, peer reviews, evolution about 10 years ago had 1000’s of peer reviews and creationism about 3 and 2 them the guy was in jail for fraud.
So instead on biquring so much, why not quote some peer reviews on for and against instead of newspaper articles and home spun antidotes.


Good idea. I hope to make the debate less like the previous so it is not just a matter of AGW religion and more on something tangable.. and not lies, damn lies and statistics only. (like, my graph is bigger than your graph but my error margin is smaller)
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Re: AGW - anthropogenic global warming
Reply #10 - Apr 30th, 2018 at 7:52pm
 
Gordon wrote on Apr 30th, 2018 at 7:49pm:
Agw is real but it's only part of the puzzle.

We should be striving for clean energy because pollution is a known.

Yes the co2 debate is a great smoke screen for the fossil fuel industry.
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Bobby.
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Re: AGW - anthropogenic global warming
Reply #11 - Apr 30th, 2018 at 7:54pm
 
Gordon wrote on Apr 30th, 2018 at 7:49pm:
Agw is real but it's only part of the puzzle.

We should be striving for clean energy because pollution is a known.



Definitely -
that's why renewable energy should be used &
research put into a large scale Thorium power station.
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Gordon
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Re: AGW - anthropogenic global warming
Reply #12 - Apr 30th, 2018 at 8:01pm
 
Bobby. wrote on Apr 30th, 2018 at 7:54pm:
Gordon wrote on Apr 30th, 2018 at 7:49pm:
Agw is real but it's only part of the puzzle.

We should be striving for clean energy because pollution is a known.



Definitely -
that's why renewable energy should be used &
research put into a large scale Thorium power station.


One thing you will notice is lefty atheists are catastrophisng agw because all religions and cultures need some kind of end times story.  Climate change is theirs.

I believe in agw, I believe in renewables and I also believe no matter how much climate changes, humans will continue to flourish.
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Re: AGW - anthropogenic global warming
Reply #13 - Apr 30th, 2018 at 8:41pm
 
Super Nova wrote on Apr 30th, 2018 at 7:39pm:
Hi lee,

It is a good point you raise that we have a history of extreme events. I am showing that maybe if we can acurately attribute some to AGW then maybe we (normal citizens) need to understand our response. Doing nothing is not an option. Being a headless chook is also not an option.

So balance is needed in the debate and then when it is clear, action that is balanced and appropriate is needed, to avoid the worst case scenarios.


You go from " if we can acurately attribute some to AGW " to "Doing nothing is not an option".

Doing nothing would be an option if you can't prove AGW, or AGW caused extreme events.
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lee
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Re: AGW - anthropogenic global warming
Reply #14 - Apr 30th, 2018 at 8:45pm
 
And the Arctic -

" THE ARCTIC IS MELTING

“It will without doubt have come to your Lordship’s knowledge that a considerable change of climate, inexplicable at present to us, must have taken place in the Circumpolar Regions, by which the severity of the cold that has for centuries past enclosed the seas in the high northern latitudes in an impenetrable barrier of ice has been during the last two years, greatly abated….

(see additional*)

….. this affords ample proof that new sources of warmth have been opened and give us leave to hope that the Arctic Seas may at this time be more accessible than they have been for centuries past, and that discoveries may now be made in them not only interesting to the advancement of science but also to the future intercourse of mankind and the commerce of distant nations.” A request was made for the Royal Society to assemble an expedition to go and investigate."

"Additional…

”Mr. Scoresby, a very intelligent young man who commands a whaling vessel from Whitby observed last year that 2000 square leagues (a league is 3 miles) of ice with which the Greenland Seas between the latitudes of 74° and 80°N have been hitherto covered, has in the last two years entirely disappeared. The same person who has never been before able to penetrate to the westward of the Meridian of Greenwich in these latitudes was this year able to proceed to 10°, 30′W where he saw the coast of East Greenland and entertained no doubt of being able to reach the land had not his duty to his employers made it necessary for him to abandon the undertaking.

This, with information of a similar nature derived from other sources; the unusual abundance of ice islands that have during the last two summers been brought by currents from Davies Streights (sic) into the Atlantic.

The ice which has this year surrounded the northern coast of Ireland ( see footnotes1) in unusual quantity and remained there unthawed till the middle of August, with the floods which have during the whole summer inundated all those parts of Germany where rivers have their sources in snowy mountains.”

President of the Royal Society, London, to the Admiralty, 20th November, 1817, Minutes of Council, Volume 8. pp.149-153, Royal Society, London. 20th November, 1817
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