Australian Politics Forum - Evidence for global warming.

Ajax

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Re: Evidence for global warming.
Reply #135 - Apr 27^th, 2019 at 5:57pm

lee wrote on Apr 27^th, 2019 at 5:49pm:

Ajax wrote on Apr 27^th, 2019 at 2:22pm:

It talks of warming the raw data....?!?!

"The per decade rate of 1910-2016 mean temperature warming in ACORN 2 is 23% higher than ACORN 1 and 53.7% higher than raw."

https://4k4oijnpiu3l4c3h-zippykid.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/clip...

Darwin as example

Got it.....thanks................

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1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery & prison" Regas Feraeos

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Bobby. Moderator Offline Australian Politics Posts: 103545 Melbourne Gender:	Re: Evidence for global warming. Reply #136 - Jun 10^th, 2019 at 9:08am Come on, global warming alarmists - start posting.
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Robot

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Re: Evidence for global warming.
Reply #137 - Jun 11^th, 2019 at 12:45am

Bobby. wrote on Jun 10^th, 2019 at 9:08am:

Come on, global warming alarmists - start posting.

This guy had a pretty useful link for you:

Bobby. wrote on Mar 17^th, 2019 at 8:43pm:

I'll help you kids out.

Here's some good evidence here:

https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/

The current warming trend is of particular significance because most of it is extremely likely (greater than 95 percent probability) to be the result of human activity since the mid-20th century and proceeding at a rate that is unprecedented over decades to millennia.1

Earth-orbiting satellites and other technological advances have enabled scientists to see the big picture, collecting many different types of information about our planet and its climate on a global scale. This body of data, collected over many years, reveals the signals of a changing climate.

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Robot

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Re: Evidence for global warming.
Reply #138 - Jun 11^th, 2019 at 12:46am

lee wrote on Apr 26^th, 2019 at 3:40pm:

Captain Nemo wrote on Apr 26^th, 2019 at 12:33pm:

Others said that the role of global warming in the latest observations was yet to be established. “It’s a bit difficult to extrapolate these finding to the wider picture,” said Dr Paulo Ceppi, of the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London. “During 30-year periods you can still have pretty significant natural variations in winds.”

Oh dear. You do know 30 years is, according to the WMO, one climate period. Therefore you need at least two climate periods, preferably more, to compare before you can even intimate it is a change in climate.

The link you gave me in the other thread was very useful, but it seems like you never actually bothered to read it yourself.

Quote:

Climate normals are used for two principal purposes. They serve as a benchmark against which recent or current observations can be compared, including providing a basis for many anomaly-based climate datasets (for example, global mean temperatures).

Quote:

Climatological standard normals. Averages of climatological data computed for the following consecutive periods of 30 years: 1 January 1981–31 December 2010, 1 January 1991–31 December 2020, and so forth

https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=4166

The WMO Technical Regulations define climatological standard normals as 30 year averages calculated every ten years, but these normals are meant to serve as a "basis for many anomaly-based climate datasets".

This doesn't mean that one has to wait until 2020 before we can tell whether the climate is changing. It just means that the next WMO climatological standard normal won't be calculated until next year.

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« Last Edit: Jun 11^th, 2019 at 1:33am by Robot »

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Robot

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Re: Evidence for global warming.
Reply #139 - Jun 11^th, 2019 at 1:32am

Ajax wrote on Apr 27^th, 2019 at 1:34pm:

The_Barnacle wrote on Apr 27^th, 2019 at 12:47pm:

Yes lee, I know 1720 was before the start of the industrial revolution Wink

Hey Barny can you please explain why ACORN is adjusting raw temperature data and making them hotter than originally recorded......???

BOM explains why they make the adjustments here:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/data/acorn-sat/#tabs=FAQs

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« Last Edit: Jun 11^th, 2019 at 3:48am by Robot »

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Robot Senior Member Offline Conspirator Posts: 441 Engadine Maccas	Re: Evidence for global warming. Reply #140 - Jun 11^th, 2019 at 1:34am Bobby. wrote on Jun 10^th, 2019 at 9:08am: Come on, global warming alarmists - start posting. Global warming is real because Al Gore said so. There the truth is out. So glad to get it off my chest.
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DonDeeHippy

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Re: Evidence for global warming.
Reply #141 - Jun 11^th, 2019 at 7:19am

Robot wrote on Jun 11^th, 2019 at 1:32am:

Ajax wrote on Apr 27^th, 2019 at 1:34pm:

The_Barnacle wrote on Apr 27^th, 2019 at 12:47pm:

Yes lee, I know 1720 was before the start of the industrial revolution Wink

Hey Barny can you please explain why ACORN is adjusting raw temperature data and making them hotter than originally recorded......???

BOM explains why they make the adjustments here:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/data/acorn-sat/#tabs=FAQs

We don't want actual reasons and explanations we want FUD Cheesy

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I am me

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 17406 Gender:	Re: Evidence for global warming. Reply #142 - Jun 11^th, 2019 at 1:35pm Robot wrote on Jun 11^th, 2019 at 12:46am: This doesn't mean that one has to wait until 2020 before we can tell whether the climate is changing. It just means that the next WMO climatological standard normal won't be calculated until next year. And how much is AGW?
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Bobby.

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Re: Evidence for global warming.
Reply #143 - Jun 11^th, 2019 at 1:54pm

DonDeeHippy wrote on Jun 11^th, 2019 at 7:19am:

Robot wrote on Jun 11^th, 2019 at 1:32am:

Ajax wrote on Apr 27^th, 2019 at 1:34pm:

The_Barnacle wrote on Apr 27^th, 2019 at 12:47pm:

Yes lee, I know 1720 was before the start of the industrial revolution Wink

Hey Barny can you please explain why ACORN is adjusting raw temperature data and making them hotter than originally recorded......???

BOM explains why they make the adjustments here:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/data/acorn-sat/#tabs=FAQs

We don't want actual reasons and explanations we want FUD Cheesy

So they admit to doctoring the data.

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Johnnie

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Re: Evidence for global warming.
Reply #144 - Jun 11^th, 2019 at 2:02pm

Robot wrote on Jun 11^th, 2019 at 1:32am:

Ajax wrote on Apr 27^th, 2019 at 1:34pm:

The_Barnacle wrote on Apr 27^th, 2019 at 12:47pm:

Yes lee, I know 1720 was before the start of the industrial revolution Wink

Hey Barny can you please explain why ACORN is adjusting raw temperature data and making them hotter than originally recorded......???

BOM explains why they make the adjustments here:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/data/acorn-sat/#tabs=FAQs

When BoM said that the last summer was the hottest on record in OZ, what did they mean, it wasn't!

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lee

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Re: Evidence for global warming.
Reply #145 - Jun 11^th, 2019 at 2:07pm

Robot wrote on Jun 11^th, 2019 at 1:32am:

BOM explains why they make the adjustments here:

Yes.

"The standard scientific practice is to detect potential artificial jumps by comparing data from the station of interest (the candidate station) with data from other nearby stations where the suspected artificial jump is absent (reference stations). If there is an artificial jump in the data, this will be reflected in the candidate station warming or cooling relative to other surrounding stations."

See 5.

"All maximum recordings before 1/1/37 at Darwin P.O. (014016) were lowered by 1.02C on this date due to changes in the local vegetation. These changes were made by the BOM based on maximum temperatures taken from the comparison station Wyndham Port (001005)."

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/04/08/darwin-temperatures-unscrambling-the-acor...

Contributed by Bob Irvine.

Wyndham is 446Km. hardly what one could call "nearby". Wink

How well do temperatures from Wyndham marry up with Darwin?

"In Fig. 2 it is obvious that the record has been compromised after 1936, probably by the vegetation issue identified by the BOM. A Pearson correlation of less than 0.5 disqualifies a comparison station based on monthly data according to the BOM methods. For the accuracy required by this post yearly data should be good enough and will almost certainly be confirmed if anybody wants to wade into the monthly data.
For the 10 years from 1927 to 1936 the correlation between Darwin PO and Wyndham Port is 0.39 which disqualifies Wyndham Port as a comparison station. Wyndham Port also has very poor or no correlation with Darwin Airport from 1942 to 1945 (correlation 0.03). The BOM should not have used Wyndham Port as a comparison station."

One would have to say not even close.

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 17406 Gender:	Re: Evidence for global warming. Reply #146 - Jun 11^th, 2019 at 2:09pm Johnnie wrote on Jun 11^th, 2019 at 2:02pm: When BoM said that the last summer was the hottest on record in OZ, what did they mean, it wasn't! Exactly petal. Only using ACORN2 "data". Once a temperature series has been "homogenised" it is no longer data.
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DonDeeHippy Gold Member Offline Cool Stuff Posts: 2782 Australia Gender:	Re: Evidence for global warming. Reply #147 - Jun 11^th, 2019 at 2:10pm Global warming was the first UN hoax now they are getting the ice age hoax to counter act the first one. Meanwhile the earths temperature hasn’t changed......
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Johnnie

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Re: Evidence for global warming.
Reply #148 - Jun 11^th, 2019 at 2:21pm

lee wrote on Jun 11^th, 2019 at 2:09pm:

Johnnie wrote on Jun 11^th, 2019 at 2:02pm:

When BoM said that the last summer was the hottest on record in OZ, what did they mean, it wasn't!

Exactly petal. Only using ACORN2 "data". Wink

Once a temperature series has been "homogenised" it is no longer data.

Yes I know all that rose bud. Are you saying that the thermometers lied?

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 17406 Gender:	Re: Evidence for global warming. Reply #149 - Jun 11^th, 2019 at 2:26pm Johnnie wrote on Jun 11^th, 2019 at 2:21pm: Are you saying that the thermometers lied? Do you think they use thermometers to get ACORN2 "data"?
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