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Evidence for global warming. (Read 92077 times)
Robot
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Re: Evidence for global warming.
Reply #165 - Jun 11th, 2019 at 9:33pm
 
lee wrote on Jun 11th, 2019 at 9:03pm:
Robot wrote on Jun 11th, 2019 at 8:55pm:
Nah: burden's on him.


So a climate scientist should prove them self before writing a paper. And yet climate scientists say it is up to the sceptics to prove them wrong.

Seems like you want it both ways. Wink


Yes, experts in general should prove themselves, including scientists in any field.

For scientists, it's reasonable to expect that they: have a relevant university degree; have a job in their field of expertise; and in the case of scientists making novel claims, have published their findings through a peer-reviewed process.

lee wrote on Jun 11th, 2019 at 9:03pm:
Robot wrote on Jun 11th, 2019 at 8:55pm:
ETA: And I don't just mean in this case; I mean in general. How do you figure out whose reliable and who isn't?



You look at the evidence. Wink


What qualifies you to judge the evidence?

lee wrote on Jun 11th, 2019 at 9:03pm:
So what evidence do you have he doesn't know what he is talking about.

BTW - Watts is read and commented on by many. Some pro; some anti. I suggest you look at the comments.


The fact that a blog is popular is not evidence that it is reliable. That's an argumentum ad populum.
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lee
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Re: Evidence for global warming.
Reply #166 - Jun 11th, 2019 at 10:08pm
 
Robot wrote on Jun 11th, 2019 at 9:33pm:
For scientists, it's reasonable to expect that they: have a relevant university degree; have a job in their field of expertise; and in the case of scientists making novel claims, have published their findings through a peer-reviewed process.


These papers have all been through the per-reviewed process, and most don't stand up to scrutiny.

Robot wrote on Jun 11th, 2019 at 9:33pm:
What qualifies you to judge the evidence?


Because I read, I comprehend, I think. There are many things I am not qualified to comment on. But there are many I am.

So if we look at all those climate models, each with their own parameters, logic tells us only ONE can be right. It might even be right for the wrong reasons. But people want to use an average of climate models.

They don't seem to understand that does nothing to help the modelling. Those running warm get brought down to the mean. Those running cool get dragged up to the mean. Where is the real answer? It is very unlikely to be the mean.
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lee
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Re: Evidence for global warming.
Reply #167 - Jun 11th, 2019 at 10:10pm
 
Robot wrote on Jun 11th, 2019 at 9:33pm:
The fact that a blog is popular is not evidence that it is reliable. That's an argumentum ad populum.


Ah another red herring. I never suggested that was the case. I merely suggested you read the comments. Grin Grin Grin Grin
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Robot
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Re: Evidence for global warming.
Reply #168 - Jun 11th, 2019 at 10:33pm
 
lee wrote on Jun 11th, 2019 at 10:08pm:
Robot wrote on Jun 11th, 2019 at 9:33pm:
For scientists, it's reasonable to expect that they: have a relevant university degree; have a job in their field of expertise; and in the case of scientists making novel claims, have published their findings through a peer-reviewed process.


These papers have all been through the per-reviewed process, and most don't stand up to scrutiny.


Whose scrutiny is that, again?

lee wrote on Jun 11th, 2019 at 10:08pm:
Robot wrote on Jun 11th, 2019 at 9:33pm:
What qualifies you to judge the evidence?


Because I read, I comprehend, I think. There are many things I am not qualified to comment on. But there are many I am.

So if we look at all those climate models, each with their own parameters, logic tells us only ONE can be right. It might even be right for the wrong reasons. But people want to use an average of climate models.

They don't seem to understand that does nothing to help the modelling. Those running warm get brought down to the mean. Those running cool get dragged up to the mean. Where is the real answer? It is very unlikely to be the mean.


You judge yourself qualified to decide whether scientists are doing science correctly.

Grin

lee wrote on Jun 11th, 2019 at 10:10pm:
Robot wrote on Jun 11th, 2019 at 9:33pm:
The fact that a blog is popular is not evidence that it is reliable. That's an argumentum ad populum.


Ah another red herring. I never suggested that was the case. I merely suggested you read the comments. Grin Grin Grin Grin


Unless the peanut gallery is populated with climate scientists, I don't see the point.

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lee
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Re: Evidence for global warming.
Reply #169 - Jun 12th, 2019 at 12:06pm
 
Robot wrote on Jun 11th, 2019 at 10:33pm:
Whose scrutiny is that, again?


ooh a typo. well done. You finally got something right.

Robot wrote on Jun 11th, 2019 at 10:33pm:
You judge yourself qualified to decide whether scientists are doing science correctly.


I judge myself to be qualified to spot bullshit. I see it from commentators like you all the time. Wink

Robot wrote on Jun 11th, 2019 at 10:33pm:
Unless the peanut gallery is populated with climate scientists, I don't see the point.


There are climate scientists among them. Grin Grin Grin Grin
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Re: Evidence for global warming.
Reply #170 - Jun 12th, 2019 at 12:50pm
 
lee wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 12:06pm:
Robot wrote on Jun 11th, 2019 at 10:33pm:
Whose scrutiny is that, again?


ooh a typo. well done. You finally got something right.


Actually I didn't spot the typo, and I wouldn't care because everyone makes typos.

You say that "most don't stand up to scrutiny" but whose scrutiny is it?

lee wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 12:06pm:
Robot wrote on Jun 11th, 2019 at 10:33pm:
You judge yourself qualified to decide whether scientists are doing science correctly.


I judge myself to be qualified to spot bullshit. I see it from commentators like you all the time. Wink


Getting a tad defensive, there.

lee wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 12:06pm:
Robot wrote on Jun 11th, 2019 at 10:33pm:
Unless the peanut gallery is populated with climate scientists, I don't see the point.


There are climate scientists among them. Grin Grin Grin Grin


Such as?

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Re: Evidence for global warming.
Reply #171 - Jun 12th, 2019 at 1:30pm
 
Robot wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 12:50pm:
You say that "most don't stand up to scrutiny" but whose scrutiny is it?



other climate scientists, citizen scientists.

You could perhaps try to dispute what I wrote about Zeke Hausfather on the other thread, but that would require you to look at is end-notes to look at how he calculated zettajoules to get to 1ēC. Of course that could be too difficult for you, it involves maths.

Or gives us some insight into how Statistical changes to ACORN2 work. You know where there are no logical or physical changes to stations, equipment etc.


Robot wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 12:50pm:
Getting a tad defensive, there.


No petal. Just telling it like it is.

Robot wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 12:50pm:
Such as?


Do your own work. But spoken like a true believer. You want everyone to do it for you just so that you can say "I don't believe". Grin Grin Grin
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Robot
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Re: Evidence for global warming.
Reply #172 - Jun 12th, 2019 at 2:12pm
 
lee wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 1:30pm:
Robot wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 12:50pm:
You say that "most don't stand up to scrutiny" but whose scrutiny is it?



other climate scientists, citizen scientists.


Yeah, I don't care about citizen scientists. Can you cite these climate scientists? (You know, the ones you think aren't experts anyway.)

lee wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 1:30pm:
You could perhaps try to dispute what I wrote about Zeke Hausfather on the other thread, but that would require you to look at is end-notes to look at how he calculated zettajoules to get to 1ēC. Of course that could be too difficult for you, it involves maths.


It was a good laugh. You seem confused by energy units, and you forgot your citations.

lee wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 1:30pm:
Or gives us some insight into how Statistical changes to ACORN2 work. You know where there are no logical or physical changes to stations, equipment etc.


Meh, I'm pretty confident that the BOM know what they're doing.

lee wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 1:30pm:
Robot wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 12:50pm:
Such as?


Do your own work. But spoken like a true believer. You want everyone to do it for you just so that you can say "I don't believe". Grin Grin Grin


In other words: "I was bluffing. I can't show that any of them are actually climate scientists."
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Re: Evidence for global warming.
Reply #173 - Jun 12th, 2019 at 3:06pm
 
Robot wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 2:12pm:
Can you cite these climate scientists? (You know, the ones you think aren't experts anyway.)


What did I say about climate "experts"? Grin Grin Grin Grin

Robot wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 2:12pm:
It was a good laugh. You seem confused by energy units, and you forgot your citations.


Sorry. Cheng et al  go from ēC to zettajoules. if you have trouble with that contact them. Wink

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6423/128.full

Enjoy.

Robot wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 2:12pm:
Meh, I'm pretty confident that the BOM know what they're doing.


Ah, the old Ad Verecundiam. Grin Grin Grin Grin

Robot wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 12:50pm:
In other words: "I was bluffing. I can't show that any of them are actually climate scientists."


No petal. Are you telling me you have trouble reading? Wink
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Re: Evidence for global warming.
Reply #174 - Jun 12th, 2019 at 3:55pm
 
lee wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 3:06pm:
Robot wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 2:12pm:
It was a good laugh. You seem confused by energy units, and you forgot your citations.


Sorry. Cheng et al  go from ēC to zettajoules. if you have trouble with that contact them. Wink

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6423/128.full

Enjoy.


Like I said, you seem to be confused with energy units. If you don't know how it works, you definitely aren't able to offer a meaningful criticism of their methods.

Have you actually read Cheng et al, because...

lee wrote on Mar 29th, 2019 at 6:10pm:
Further in Hausfathers paper they say that they knew the ocean heat at 2Km to within +/- 95 zettajoules (+/-0.4C) in 1955 and in 2018 to within +/- 9 zettajoules (0.003C) Three one thousandth of a degree. Grin Grin Grin Grin


...the paper doesn't say that.

Cite your actual source, thanks.
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Re: Evidence for global warming.
Reply #175 - Jun 12th, 2019 at 4:04pm
 
Robot wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 3:55pm:
Like I said, you seem to be confused with energy units.



Seeing as you think I am confused perhaps you should school me. Grin Grin Grin Grin

Robot wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 3:55pm:
...the paper doesn't say that.



You have access to the data and figures? Grin Grin Grin Grin
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Re: Evidence for global warming.
Reply #176 - Jun 12th, 2019 at 4:12pm
 
lee wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 4:04pm:
Robot wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 3:55pm:
Like I said, you seem to be confused with energy units.



Seeing as you think I am confused perhaps you should school me. Grin Grin Grin Grin


I suspect you're getting your claims from a blog post:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/01/11/a-small-margin-of-error/

The lesson is simple: you should check the blogger's sources to see if they are representing them correctly.

lee wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 4:04pm:
Robot wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 3:55pm:
...the paper doesn't say that.


You have access to the data and figures? Grin Grin Grin Grin


I have access to the full text PDF, yes.
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« Last Edit: Jun 12th, 2019 at 4:40pm by Robot »  
 
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lee
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Re: Evidence for global warming.
Reply #177 - Jun 12th, 2019 at 5:48pm
 
Robot wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 4:12pm:
The lesson is simple: you should check the blogger's sources to see if they are representing them correctly.


So you say the errors are theirs. And yet you haven't specified what those errors are. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin

Robot wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 4:12pm:
I have access to the full text PDF, yes.


So have you done the figures which you can put into a graph? good. In case you haven't the data is at -

http://159.226.119.60/cheng/images_files/IAP_OHC_estimate_update.txt

tell us how you get on with the reconstruction. Wink

Note - "unit of OHC:  *10^22 Joules"

"Reliable records are after 1955"

2000m 1955 9.52 raw. Multiply by 10 for zettajoules . +/-3.59

2000m 2018 .2.07 raw. Error bar  +/- 0.35

good luck Wink
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« Last Edit: Jun 12th, 2019 at 6:05pm by lee »  
 
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Re: Evidence for global warming.
Reply #178 - Jun 12th, 2019 at 7:51pm
 
lee wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 5:48pm:
Robot wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 4:12pm:
The lesson is simple: you should check the blogger's sources to see if they are representing them correctly.


So you say the errors are theirs. And yet you haven't specified what those errors are. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin

Robot wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 4:12pm:
I have access to the full text PDF, yes.


So have you done the figures which you can put into a graph? good. In case you haven't the data is at -

http://159.226.119.60/cheng/images_files/IAP_OHC_estimate_update.txt

tell us how you get on with the reconstruction. Wink

Note - "unit of OHC:  *10^22 Joules"

"Reliable records are after 1955"

2000m 1955 9.52 raw. Multiply by 10 for zettajoules . +/-3.59

2000m 2018 .2.07 raw. Error bar  +/- 0.35

good luck Wink


Thanks. I think I've got a fairly complete picture, now.

Here's what you wrote, for reference:

lee wrote on Mar 29th, 2019 at 6:10pm:
Further in Hausfathers paper they say that they knew the ocean heat at 2Km to within +/- 95 zettajoules (+/-0.4C) in 1955 and in 2018 to within +/- 9 zettajoules (0.003C) Three one thousandth of a degree. Grin Grin Grin Grin


It turns out you didn't read Cheng et al ("Hausfathers paper"); you read a blog post that doesn't even reference the article, let alone cite it.

You've just parroted the blogger, Willis Eschenbach, who claims the data can't possibly be as accurate at it claims to be.

Which brings us back to the same problem you've got with that other blogger, Bob Irvine. How do you judge that these guys know what they're talking about? Willis Eschenbach has "no credentials in any scientific field".

There's a pattern here, lee: You parrot the claims of citizen scientist bloggers whom you believe because you are confident in your own ability to detect BS.

You also talk a big game about number-crunching, but based on your pattern of parroting bloggers, I bet that's all talk and no walk.

(BTW it's fine for you to just be honest and cite the blog post as your source. If you're worried it'll look bad, then maybe that's telling you something.)
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Re: Evidence for global warming.
Reply #179 - Jun 12th, 2019 at 8:52pm
 
Robot wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 7:51pm:
It turns out you didn't read Cheng et al ("Hausfathers paper"); you read a blog post that doesn't even reference the article, let alone cite it.


You mean that (IAP) at the bottom of the graph?

"Figure 1. Change in ocean heat content, 1955 – 2018. Data available from Institute for Applied Physics (IAP). "

The IAP link takes you to the data. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin

And obviously you didn't understand the Cheng et al paper. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin

Robot wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 7:51pm:
Willis Eschenbach has "no credentials in any scientific field".


Ah you that's right you don't believe in citizen scientists. Grin Grin Grin

Benjamin Franklin

Guy Callendar.

All those people that came before "climate scientists". Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin

BTW - Did you notice I just quoted the Cheng et al paper data? You should have you said you downloaded the paper. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin


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