Trump predicted to lose reelection in model that forecasted Democratic takeover of House
BY CHRIS MILLS RODRIGO - 07/01/19 04:03 PM EDT  1,082

The prediction model that accurately predicted Democratic gains in the House four months before the 2018 midterm elections says President Trump will lose his reelection bid.

The latest "Negative Partisanship" model by Rachel Bitecofer, the assistant director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University, released Monday, predicts Trump will lose the Electoral College 278-197.

Bitecofer highlighted Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania as states the incumbent will have difficulty winning this time around.

"The complacent electorate of 2016, who were convinced Trump would never be president, has been replaced with the terrified electorate of 2020, who are convinced he’s the Terminator and can’t be stopped," she said. "Under my model, that distinction is not only important, it is everything."

She also pointed to his low approval rating among independents as an impediment to a second term.

Bitecofer's model predicted a 42 seat House Democratic pickup in 2018, and the Democrats won 40. Many other models did not predict such a large victory.

She acknowledged the Democratic candidate has not been chosen yet, but argued it is not incredibly important who the nominee is.

"Does the Democrat’s nominee matter? Sure, to an extent. If the ticket has a woman, a person of color or a Latino, or a female who is also a person of color, Democratic Party turnout will surge more in really important places," Bitecofer wrote. "If the nominee is Biden he’d be well-advised to consider Democratic voter turnout his number one consideration when drawing his running mate to avoid the critical mistake made by Hillary Clinton in 2016."

"But the Democrats are not complacent like they were in 2016 and I doubt there is any amount of polling or favorable forecasts that will make them so. That fear will play a crucial role in their 2020 victory. We will not see a divided Democratic Party in 2020," she wrote. 

There is hope for Ozpolitic denizens Panther and The mechanic yet: my prediction is that if Trump loses, he contests the election and doesn't leave. On top of that, he will by then be engaged in a foreign war and may whip up a domestic disturbance as well and say "Folks, only I can handle this."

greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 2^nd, 2019 at 10:19am:



Trump will start a war with Iran soon.

greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 2^nd, 2019 at 10:28am:


I  agree but if you watched 4 Corners last night you would have
seen that a war will happen any day now.

If he loses, he won't go quietly.

The model is predicting that independents and those who did not vote in 2016 due to apathy are strongly against Donald Trump.

AiA wrote on Jul 2^nd, 2019 at 10:15am:


Couldn't agree more.

If he loses, he won't go quietly.

He'll be the sorest loser the world has ever seen.

And yes, if he can start a war he'll have a much better chance of winning in 2020.