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Future of the human climate niche (Read 339 times)
lee
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Future of the human climate niche
May 5th, 2020 at 5:07pm
 
"All species have an environmental niche, and despite technological advances, humans are unlikely to be an exception. Here, we demonstrate that for millennia, human populations have resided in the same narrow part of the climatic envelope available on the globe, characterized by a major mode around ∼11 °C to 15 °C mean annual temperature (MAT). Supporting the fundamental nature of this temperature niche, current production of crops and livestock is largely limited to the same conditions, and the same optimum has been found for agricultural and nonagricultural economic output of countries through analyses of year-to-year variation. We show that in a business-as-usual climate change scenario, the geographical position of this temperature niche is projected to shift more over the coming 50 y than it has moved since 6000 BP. Populations will not simply track the shifting climate, as adaptation in situ may address some of the challenges, and many other factors affect decisions to migrate. "

"One way to get an image of the temperatures projected to be experienced in highly populated areas in 2070 is to look at the regions where comparable conditions are already present in the current climate. Most of the areas that are now close to the historically prevalent ∼13 °C mode will, in 50 y have a MAT ∼20 °C, currently found in regions such as North Africa, parts of Southern China, and Mediterranean regions (SI Appendix, Fig. S4). "

https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/04/28/1910114117

So you will be safe in Hobart.

Melbourne is already right on the cusp at 14.8C Mean Average Temperature

Sydney at 17.6C Mean Average Temperature is already dead.

Forget about Bali or Singapore.
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Jasin
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Re: Future of the human climate niche
Reply #1 - May 5th, 2020 at 11:22pm
 
Australia's Political niche is just as a breeding faculty.
USA's Political niche is an empowerment of one position: President.

Australia's 'empowerment' niche is ART.
For it definitely isn't Sport.  Grin
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AIMLESS EXTENTION OF KNOWLEDGE HOWEVER, WHICH IS WHAT I THINK YOU REALLY MEAN BY THE TERM 'CURIOSITY', IS MERELY INEFFICIENCY. I AM DESIGNED TO AVOID INEFFICIENCY.
 
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