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did the protestors spread the virus? (Read 22622 times)
Jasin
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Re: did the protestors spread the virus?
Reply #225 - Aug 5th, 2020 at 12:22pm
 
How about both BLM Protesters & people coming in from Overseas - to blame for the 2nd Wave. Along with a lack lustre priority of Governments?
Send in the Military, that'll cure the Viral spreads - for lack of a adequate Medical system.
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AIMLESS EXTENTION OF KNOWLEDGE HOWEVER, WHICH IS WHAT I THINK YOU REALLY MEAN BY THE TERM 'CURIOSITY', IS MERELY INEFFICIENCY. I AM DESIGNED TO AVOID INEFFICIENCY.
 
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freediver
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Re: did the protestors spread the virus?
Reply #226 - Aug 5th, 2020 at 6:23pm
 
polite_gandalf wrote on Aug 5th, 2020 at 10:09am:
freediver wrote on Aug 4th, 2020 at 9:35pm:
How does this demonstrate that the protestors did not spread the virus?


It doesn't. It just demonstrates that the quarantine bungle theory has legs, whereas the protest theory has no legs whatsoever.


You just admitted it was a risk of spreading the virus. Have you changed your mind?

Quote:
FD throws us a graph that shows the protest happening just before the second wave, and says "voila - correlation = causation!"


You are lying Gandalf. Again.

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Not for a minute saying it was a good idea though.


Why was it not a good idea, given that the theory of the virus spreading at the protest "has no legs?

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Mandatory hotel quarantine is widely accepted to be one of the biggest factors that helped Australia flatten the curve the first time, but now it seems likely that a single failure in that program sparked a wave of cases far bigger than the first.


Thanks Gandalf. Are you saying that the Victorian government, which has long denied a link between the protest and the outbreak the came right after it, does not actually know what is to blame?
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freediver
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Re: did the protestors spread the virus?
Reply #227 - Aug 5th, 2020 at 6:31pm
 
polite_gandalf wrote on Aug 5th, 2020 at 10:09am:
freediver wrote on Aug 4th, 2020 at 9:35pm:
How does this demonstrate that the protestors did not spread the virus?


It doesn't. It just demonstrates that the quarantine bungle theory has legs, whereas the protest theory has no legs whatsoever. Since I just gave you clear evidence that the quarantine bungle caused *AN* outbreak at a critical point in time - whereas you have provided precisely zero evidence that the protests caused any outbreak whatsoever.


Do you think we should track down all the evidence that the government either didn't find or won't share?

Have you seen any government official give a straight answer on how many cases can be traced to the BLM protest?

Quote:
And yes, 60 cases certainly is a "wow" in the context of a so-called "second wave" that is still only causing daily infections in the hundreds.


But it is still a long way from even being evidence that the BLM protestors didn't spread the virus, right?
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freediver
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Re: did the protestors spread the virus?
Reply #228 - Aug 5th, 2020 at 6:34pm
 
polite_gandalf wrote on Jul 30th, 2020 at 1:55pm:
Since you do realise Andrews is now openly admitting this wave was caused by his own incompetence with quarantine right??


What did Andrews actually say Gandalf?
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polite_gandalf
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Re: did the protestors spread the virus?
Reply #229 - Aug 6th, 2020 at 6:44pm
 
freediver wrote on Aug 5th, 2020 at 6:23pm:
You just admitted it was a risk of spreading the virus. Have you changed your mind?


freediver wrote on Aug 5th, 2020 at 6:23pm:
Why was it not a good idea, given that the theory of the virus spreading at the protest "has no legs?


In terms of actual evidence pointing to it spreading this particular outbreak - the theory has no legs. This is completely irrespective of whether or not it was advisable - which it clearly wasn't.

Please tell me you understand the difference between posing a risk of spreading the infection and actually causing the spread.

freediver wrote on Aug 5th, 2020 at 6:31pm:
But it is still a long way from even being evidence that the BLM protestors didn't spread the virus, right?


No FD, we go through this every time. I don't need to prove anything here. Why is it that whenever we have these "FD please show us evidence it happened" discussions, it always ends up with you thinking I need to prove it didn't happen? Its uncanny.

freediver wrote on Aug 5th, 2020 at 6:31pm:
Do you think we should track down all the evidence that the government either didn't find or won't share?

Have you seen any government official give a straight answer on how many cases can be traced to the BLM protest?


Frankly I'll settle with sticking to what we do know before getting out our tin foil hats.

freediver wrote on Aug 5th, 2020 at 6:23pm:
You are lying Gandalf. Again.


You posted that completely useless graph literally in direct response to my request for evidence. It is of course understandable that you want to backpeddle now that you realise its not actually evidence - but its pretty obvious you wanted us to think that the graph showing nothing whatsoever except correlation between the protest and the outbreak somehow constituted as legit evidence.
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Re: did the protestors spread the virus?
Reply #230 - Aug 6th, 2020 at 6:59pm
 
Quote:
No FD, we go through this every time. I don't need to prove anything here. Why is it that whenever we have these "FD please show us evidence it happened" discussions, it always ends up with you thinking I need to prove it didn't happen? Its uncanny.


Because you were defending the Victorian government's claims that the BLM protest did not spread the virus. If you don;t actually know what you are talking about, now would be the time to fess up.

Quote:
You posted that completely useless graph literally in direct response to my request for evidence.


Yes Gandalf. That's because it is evidence.

polite_gandalf wrote on Jul 30th, 2020 at 1:55pm:
Since you do realise Andrews is now openly admitting this wave was caused by his own incompetence with quarantine right??


What did Andrews actually say Gandalf?
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Re: did the protestors spread the virus?
Reply #231 - Aug 6th, 2020 at 8:32pm
 
freediver wrote on Aug 6th, 2020 at 6:59pm:
Because you were defending the Victorian government's claims that the BLM protest did not spread the virus. If you don;t actually know what you are talking about, now would be the time to fess up.


Victorian government's claims that the BLM protest did not spread the virus eh? News to me. What did they actually say FD?

And again you are confused. I am not defending anything - least of all a claim I didn't even know was made (and assume wasn't made). I have contributed a few different points in this discussion - including refuting your idiotic claim that the government "condoned" the protest, refuting your claim that your graph is evidence that the protest caused the spread, providing actual evidence that the quarantine bungle caused the spread. But mostly its been about exposing the patently BS idea being spruiked not just by you, but the usual suspects as well, that somehow its a fait-accompli that the protest caused the spread - and furthermore the suggestion that any actual evidence is required to establish this is to be mercilessly ridiculed.

Precisely zero percent of my contribution in this thread has consisted of defending the Victorian government - in any way.

freediver wrote on Aug 6th, 2020 at 6:59pm:
Yes Gandalf. That's because it is evidence.


LOL. Its evidence of when the outbreak started in relation to when the protest happened. Thats all. It is *NOT* evidence that the protest caused the outbreak, which is the only relevant type of evidence we need here. Like I keep saying, correlation is not causation.

freediver wrote on Aug 6th, 2020 at 6:59pm:
What did Andrews actually say Gandalf?


Fine I got that wrong. He has not "openly admitted" anything in that regard. So shoot me. It was hardly my key point though. What was a more key point here though, and which is in no way disputed by this, is that it makes no freaking sense to suggest the government is embarassed that it might be caused by an event they clearly discouraged and begged not to happen. Saying the government "condoned" the BLM protest is by an order of magnitude far more ridiculous than anything I said here.

In any case, basically everyone *BUT* the government openly agrees that the quarantine bungle was the cause of it. Everyone that matters, that is (doctors, scientists, experts etc).
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Re: did the protestors spread the virus?
Reply #232 - Aug 6th, 2020 at 9:15pm
 
Quote:
Fine I got that wrong. He has not "openly admitted" anything in that regard. So shoot me. It was hardly my key point though. What was a more key point here though, and which is in no way disputed by this, is that it makes no freaking sense to suggest the government is embarassed that it might be caused by an event they clearly discouraged and begged not to happen.


Yes it does. They allowed it to happen. They signalled beforehand that they would allow it, even though they had already made it illegal. You split hairs over whether this counts as "condoning" it, but the protestors obviously aren't going to care whether it upsets Andrews. They do care about getting arresting and copping massive fines. It was a massive blunder, which they allowed to happen for political reasons, and they followed it up with transparent BS rhetoric, which people like you swallowed hook line and sinker. And it has taken me a dozen pages to get you to look at what he actually said rather than what you wanted him to say.

Quote:
In any case, basically everyone *BUT* the government openly agrees that the quarantine bungle was the cause of it.


Back to square one. What do they actually say? The closest you have come to abandoning mindless rhetoric for a substantive claim was attributing 60 cases to it.
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Re: did the protestors spread the virus?
Reply #233 - Aug 7th, 2020 at 11:59am
 
freediver wrote on Aug 6th, 2020 at 9:15pm:
Yes it does. They allowed it to happen. They signalled beforehand that they would allow it, even though they had already made it illegal.


What did they say exactly FD? No one actually turned around and said it suddenly wasn't illegal anymore. Fines were still issued to organisers. You do however have to be practical. You can't always just magically stop thousands of people intending to protest - no matter how much you stress how illegal it is. Sometimes you just have to manage it as best you can.

My understanding is that it was the police who decided they would not be issuing fines, arresting or getting into any potential physical situation with thousands of protestors. And if you actually stopped and thought about it for 2 seconds, thats actually the safest option if you are interested in avoiding potential spraed of the virus. The last thing you want is for police and protestors getting into open scuffles, which obviously would involve significant physical contact, and thus maximising the potential spread of an infection. That would be the worst case scenario, and what would most certainly have happened if the illegal protest (which remained illegal) was actually policed.

Says deputy police commissioner:

Quote:
"We don’t want to be applying any use of force whatsoever … we don’t even want this to go ahead, but if it does, we will try and have a peaceful [event], but people have to be accountable for their actions," he said.

"If it goes ahead we'll probably have to apply a lot of discretion because you can't practically issue thousands and thousands of infringements."


https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/melbourne-organisers-of-stop-black-d...

So thats two suspect statements you've attributed to the Victorian government FD - 1. that they claimed the BLM protest didn't cause the spread of the virus and 2. that they "signalled" (whatever that means) they would allow it after they previously had already made it illegal. For someone who glibly claims the moral high ground about the need to stick to "substantive claims", this all looks suspiciously like BS to me.

Of course none of this addresses the key point that there is still zero evidence that the protest caused the outbreak. And are you still running with the BS idea that your correlation graph is somehow evidence it caused the outbreak?

freediver wrote on Aug 6th, 2020 at 9:15pm:
Back to square one. What do they actually say? The closest you have come to abandoning mindless rhetoric for a substantive claim was attributing 60 cases to it.


"what they actually say" is pretty well summed up in the article you still refuse to read. And apparently you are still clueless as to how significant 60 cases can be to an outbreak of such an infectious virus, in the actual numbers (still only in the hundreds of new infections each day) that we are seeing.
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freediver
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Re: did the protestors spread the virus?
Reply #234 - Aug 7th, 2020 at 8:52pm
 
Quote:
What did they say exactly FD? No one actually turned around and said it suddenly wasn't illegal anymore. Fines were still issued to organisers. You do however have to be practical. You can't always just magically stop thousands of people intending to protest - no matter how much you stress how illegal it is. Sometimes you just have to manage it as best you can.


Sure you can. It worked in Sydney. There were no practical barriers. It had nothing to do with being practical. All that was missing was political will. And that's why they are tapdancing around the consequences.

Quote:
My understanding is that it was the police who decided they would not be issuing fines, arresting or getting into any potential physical situation with thousands of protestors.


Do you really think the police made this decision in isolation? And if so, why did Andrews signal to the public that there would be no legal consequences to turning up?

Quote:
So thats two suspect statements you've attributed to the Victorian government FD - 1. that they claimed the BLM protest didn't cause the spread of the virus and 2. that they "signalled" (whatever that means) they would allow it after they previously had already made it illegal.


It was from your own evidence. I merely quoted it back to you and pointed out what he actually said.

Quote:
"what they actually say" is pretty well summed up in the article you still refuse to read


Yes Gandalf, I refuse to read articles that I do not know about.
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Re: did the protestors spread the virus?
Reply #235 - Aug 8th, 2020 at 10:49am
 
Gordon wrote on Aug 8th, 2020 at 10:10am:
Professor Brett Sutton has previously revealed that genomic sequencing carried out by Melbourne's Doherty Institute shows
a significant proportion – if not all – of Victoria's second-wave cases may be traced back to quarantine breaches at hotel
s.



I agree with Gordon
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The Right Wing only believe in free speech when they agree with what is being said.
 
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freediver
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Re: did the protestors spread the virus?
Reply #236 - Aug 8th, 2020 at 12:49pm
 
The_Barnacle wrote on Aug 8th, 2020 at 10:49am:
Gordon wrote on Aug 8th, 2020 at 10:10am:
Professor Brett Sutton has previously revealed that genomic sequencing carried out by Melbourne's Doherty Institute shows
a significant proportion – if not all – of Victoria's second-wave cases may be traced back to quarantine breaches at hotel
s.



I agree with Gordon


So, somewhere between 1% and 100%, based on your opinion, which is based on nothing?
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Re: did the protestors spread the virus?
Reply #237 - Aug 8th, 2020 at 1:09pm
 
freediver wrote on Aug 8th, 2020 at 12:49pm:
The_Barnacle wrote on Aug 8th, 2020 at 10:49am:
Gordon wrote on Aug 8th, 2020 at 10:10am:
Professor Brett Sutton has previously revealed that genomic sequencing carried out by Melbourne's Doherty Institute shows
a significant proportion – if not all – of Victoria's second-wave cases may be traced back to quarantine breaches at hotel
s.



I agree with Gordon


So, somewhere between 1% and 100%, based on your opinion, which is based on nothing?


No.  "A significant proportion, if not all", based on the findings of Professor Brett Sutton
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Re: did the protestors spread the virus?
Reply #238 - Aug 8th, 2020 at 1:18pm
 
Gandalf's and Freediver's stoushes are the best.

There was Gordon's and LTYC's there for a while.
It_is_the_Light and Sad Kangaroo.
Mothra and Lisa Jones.
Agnes and Aussie.
Setanta's and Smith's.
Cods v Emma
Bobby v Monk
Trump v Peccary
Aged Care v Cliff (poor bugger)
and much more like JaSin and Lols. Cheesy
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AIMLESS EXTENTION OF KNOWLEDGE HOWEVER, WHICH IS WHAT I THINK YOU REALLY MEAN BY THE TERM 'CURIOSITY', IS MERELY INEFFICIENCY. I AM DESIGNED TO AVOID INEFFICIENCY.
 
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freediver
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Re: did the protestors spread the virus?
Reply #239 - Aug 8th, 2020 at 1:28pm
 
The_Barnacle wrote on Aug 8th, 2020 at 1:09pm:
freediver wrote on Aug 8th, 2020 at 12:49pm:
The_Barnacle wrote on Aug 8th, 2020 at 10:49am:
Gordon wrote on Aug 8th, 2020 at 10:10am:
Professor Brett Sutton has previously revealed that genomic sequencing carried out by Melbourne's Doherty Institute shows
a significant proportion – if not all – of Victoria's second-wave cases may be traced back to quarantine breaches at hotel
s.



I agree with Gordon


So, somewhere between 1% and 100%, based on your opinion, which is based on nothing?


No.  "A significant proportion, if not all", based on the findings of Professor Brett Sutton


What did he find? Is he the one who came up with "Victoria is not having a second wave"?
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